论新时期社会主义意识形态建设

新时期社会主义意识形态建设对于社会可持续发展具有重要意义 ;应坚持以马克思主义为指导 ,确立科学社会主义理想信念和科学的世界观、人生观、价值观 ,加强社会主义道德建设 ;同时应坚持政治与经济、建设与批判、继承与创新、“德治”与“法治”相统一的原则     

Statistical inference for oscillation processes

ABSTRACT

A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorithm is developed. In particular, the oscillation pattern and the unobserved phase process are estimated. The proposed algorithms are computationally efficient and their performance is assessed through simulations and an application to human electrocardiogram recordings.     

Subgroup analysis and interpretation for phase 3 confirmatory trials: White paper of the EFSPI/PSI working group on subgroup analysis

Subgroup by treatment interaction assessments are routinely performed when analysing clinical trials and are particularly important for phase 3 trials where the results may affect regulatory labelling. Interpretation of such interactions is particularly difficult, as on one hand the subgroup finding can be due to chance, but equally such analyses are known to have a low chance of detecting differential treatment effects across subgroup levels, so may overlook important differences in therapeutic efficacy. EMA have therefore issued draft guidance on the use of subgroup analyses in this setting. Although this guidance provided clear proposals on the importance of pre‐specification of likely subgroup effects and how to use this when interpreting trial results, it is less clear which analysis methods would be reasonable, and how to interpret apparent subgroup effects in terms of whether further evaluation or action is necessary. A PSI/EFSPI Working Group has therefore been investigating a focused set of analysis approaches to assess treatment effect heterogeneity across subgroups in confirmatory clinical trials that take account of the number of subgroups explored and also investigating the ability of each method to detect such subgroup heterogeneity. This evaluation has shown that the plotting of standardised effects, bias‐adjusted bootstrapping method and SIDES method all perform more favourably than traditional approaches such as investigating all subgroup‐by‐treatment interactions individually or applying a global test of interaction. Therefore, these approaches should be considered to aid interpretation and provide context for observed results from subgroup analyses conducted for phase 3 clinical trials.     

一类平面四次系统的全局相图

分析了一类平面四次微分系统的有限奇点及无穷远奇点 ,得到了系统的相图 .     

Scaling limits for the transient phase of local Metropolis–Hastings algorithms

Summary.  The paper considers high dimensional Metropolis and Langevin algorithms in their initial transient phase. In stationarity, these algorithms are well understood and it is now well known how to scale their proposal distribution variances. For the random-walk Metropolis algorithm, convergence during the transient phase is extremely regular—to the extent that the algo-rithm's sample path actually resembles a deterministic trajectory. In contrast, the Langevin algorithm with variance scaled to be optimal for stationarity performs rather erratically. We give weak convergence results which explain both of these types of behaviour and practical guidance on implementation based on our theory.     

Buckley–James Type Estimator for Censored Data with Covariates Missing by Design

Abstract. The Buckley–James estimator (BJE) is a well‐known estimator for linear regression models with censored data. Ritov has generalized the BJE to a semiparametric setting and demonstrated that his class of Buckley–James type estimators is asymptotically equivalent to the class of rank‐based estimators proposed by Tsiatis. In this article, we revisit such relationship in censored data with covariates missing by design. By exploring a similar relationship between our proposed class of Buckley–James type estimating functions to the class of rank‐based estimating functions recently generalized by Nan, Kalbfleisch and Yu, we establish asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators. We also conduct numerical studies to compare asymptotic efficiencies from various estimators.     

Fe—C相图的形成

本文以纯Fe相图为基础,探讨了Fe—C相图的形成过程。重点论述了Fe—Fe_3C相图形成的规律性,并对其形成规律性进行了讨论与分析,从而为进一步理解、应用Fe—Fe_3C相图奠定了基础。     

Consistency of semiparametric maximum likelihood estimators for two‐phase sampling

Semiparametric maximum likelihood estimators have recently been proposed for a class of two‐phase, outcome‐dependent sampling models. All of them were “restricted” maximum likelihood estimators, in the sense that the maximization is carried out only over distributions concentrated on the observed values of the covariate vectors. In this paper, the authors give conditions for consistency of these restricted maximum likelihood estimators. They also consider the corresponding unrestricted maximization problems, in which the “absolute” maximum likelihood estimators may then have support on additional points in the covariate space. Their main consistency result also covers these unrestricted maximum likelihood estimators, when they exist for all sample sizes.     

Compound designs for dose‐finding in the presence of nondesignable covariates

Compound optimal designs are considered where one component of the design criterion is a traditional optimality criterion such as the D‐optimality criterion, and the other component accounts for higher efficacy with low toxicity. With reference to the dose‐finding problem, we suggest the technique to choose weights for the two components that makes the optimization problem simpler than the traditional penalized design. We allow general bivariate responses for efficacy and toxicity. We then extend the procedure in the presence of nondesignable covariates such as age, sex, or other health conditions. A new breast cancer treatment is considered to illustrate the procedures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

纺粘无纺布生产线管式摆丝机摆相动态调整原理

设计一种纺粘无纺布生产线摆丝机摆铺相位不停机动态调整方法，取代传统的停机静态调整方法，达到了调整高效、过程直观、结果准确的目的．