当代中东恐怖主义的特点

中东地区一直是国际社会关注的焦点,一个重要原因是该地区有持续不断的恐怖主义活动。中东恐怖主义的危害越来越严重、广泛,几乎没有地区和大国幸免。分析中东恐怖主义外在的一些特点有助于探究其内在和本质的因素。本文主要分析了中东地区恐怖主义的持续性、国际性、宗教性、巴以冲突为核心、三大目标、与战乱相伴生、现代化等几个特点。     

Neoliberal co-optation and authoritarian renewal: social entrepreneurship networks in Jordan and Morocco

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes social entrepreneurship networks (SENs) – composed of social entrepreneurs, business and political elites, and international actors – in Jordan and Morocco and how they foster processes of authoritarian renewal through neoliberal forms of co-optation. I argue that these new neoliberal networks and pre-existing patterns of social interaction complement each other, fostering linkages between well-established elites and hand-picked social entrepreneurs as well as societal groups. The two case studies illustrate different trajectories of the development of SENs and their embeddedness in the respective political, social and economic contexts. Importantly, such trajectories indicate a similar direction of travel: social entrepreneurship, rather than acting as a driver of progressive change, has been aligned with the authoritarian regimes and cements neoliberalism as a mode of governance. This mutation of neoliberal tactics towards more inclusionary and consensual patterns seeks to ensure the survival of both neoliberalism and of authoritarian governance. Thus, the article brings to light repertoires of authoritarian neoliberalism that have hitherto been under-studied. Moreover, it offers a critical perspective on social entrepreneurship as an increasingly popular phenomenon that, in academia and beyond, has all too often been approached from an uncritical and apolitical perspective.     

从第三次中东战争看美国中东政策的调整

第三次中东战争的爆发使得人们对约翰逊上台之后美国中东政策的调整有了更加强烈的感性认识。这种调整是历史、现实等多种因素交织在一起的结果，表现在政治、经济、军事各个方面。随着美国中东政策的调整，中东局势乃至美苏争夺态势都产生了深远的影响。     

论明代中叶的皇权之争

明代土木之变后,统治者在解决皇位继承问题时,出于抵御瓦剌的现实需要,采取了变通办法。这种办法违背了封建统治的的基本要求,客观上造成了最高权力不够集中的局面,从而导致了长达十几年的皇权之争。此后这种斗争日趋激化。直到天顺中期,随着最高统治权绝对集中的局面再次出现,这场斗争方始告一段落。     

关系型家庭:城市中老年家庭的生活特征与个体化悖论

在个体崛起与社会风险并存的外部环境中,家庭生活的价值观念呈现多元化的特征,这一多元化的价值观念深嵌在家庭文化内涵中。 在中老年家庭的日常生活中,伦理性价值是维系家庭稳定的基本要素,情感性价值是家庭成员的生活体验,工具性价值是协调个人、家庭与社会三者之间关系的平衡器,这一以家庭的伦理性价值为核心并协调个人与家庭以及个人与社会之间权变关系的家庭生活方式可以称为“关系型家庭”。 与西方家庭的个体化相比,中国家庭生活变迁既呈现人口学意义上明显的个体化趋势,又突出伦理价值、情感性价值以及工具性价值在家庭中的重要功能,这是中国家庭生活变迁的独特内涵。     

Paternal incarceration and child-reported behavioral functioning at age 9

Within the last few decades our understanding of the importance of non-cognitive skills for socioeconomic success has grown along with our knowledge of the deleterious impacts of paternal incarceration for child wellbeing. Given the importance of early skills and that elementary-aged children constitute the majority of children with incarcerated parents, understanding the connection between paternal incarceration and the socio-emotional component of children’s non-cognitive development is pressing. Using matching models, data from the newest wave of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, and exploring a larger range of behavioral skills than previous literature, this paper provides estimates of the impact of paternal incarceration on children’s behavioral functioning at age 9 using children’s own self-reports. Comparisons to oft-used parent reports are made and heterogeneity by gender is explored. Findings suggest the incarceration of a father increases the antisocial behaviors children self-report, but has null effects on prosocial skill development.     

Bibliographical Note

In England in the Middle Ages, inheritance data were recorded of tenants who owned land from the Crown. Male adult mortality is estimated from these data. A tenant was allowed to sell his land. Only if he still owned land at death, his age at death was observed; so death was right censored by sell of all the land. The censoring times are not observed because sell of land was never recorded. This makes the estimation problem nonstandard. The age at death is left truncated, because a future tenant had to survive his testator to inherit the title “tenant” and the land and to appear in the dataset. Life span distribution and life expectancy are estimated before and during the outbreak of the Black Death, which started in 1348.     

Statistical modeling of selected aspects of the childbearing process with application to world fertility survey countries∗

The childbearing process should be monitored in developing countries experiencing high population growth rates and high levels of maternal and infant mortality. A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age‐specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter‐birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well‐known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined.     

Mediated public diplomacy in the digital age: Exploring the Saudi and the U.S. governments’ agenda-building during Trump’s visit to the Middle East

This study analyzed the agenda-building capacity of political public relations messages of the Saudi and the U.S. governments during Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East and scrutinized their influence on the media coverage and public opinion. The findings indicate that all three levels of agenda-building received solid empirical support from the data: governmental information subsidies significantly influenced media coverage and public opinion on the level of issues and stakeholders (1st level), their attributes (2nd level), and networked co-occurrences of issues/stakeholders (3rd level of agenda-building). Traditional information subsidies emerged as a powerful tool driving the agenda-building process. The study confirms the effective capacity of public relations communication to build the media and the public agendas in non-Western media culture and expands the applicability of the agenda-building network analysis research to the Middle Eastern media market.     

欧洲中世纪有宪法吗

谈到近现代欧洲各国的宪法或民主政治,人们宁可到古希腊和古罗马的民主政治中寻找根源,而不愿将之与近代毗邻的"黑暗的"中世纪相联系.人们概念中的等级、特权和专制的欧洲中世纪是没有宪法的.但果真如此吗?本文以有别于传统宪法定义的方式,在对欧洲中世纪宪法进行科学界定的基础上,通过理论论证和实证分析,得出欧洲中世纪有宪法的结论.