On the Far Eastern pattern of mortality

Since the early 1980s, it has been accepted widely that there is a Far Eastern pattern of mortality, a pattern characterized by excessively high death rates among older men relative to death rates among younger men and among women. It has been regarded as a unique regional mortality pattern, applying primarily to Far Eastern populations. A re-examination of the mortality data of some Far Eastern populations reveals that changes in both age patterns of and sex differentials in mortality have been widely observed. Further, mortality patterns similar to the so-called Far Eastern mortality model have been found in many other populations.     

Changes in mortality and life expectancy: Some methodological issues

Measuring and explaining the effects of mortality changes on life expectancy has been discussed for the past three decades. Different approaches have been proposed using discrete or continuous methods. Two basic ideas underlie these approaches. The first compares two different mortality schedules and quantifies the contribution of each age group to the increase in life expectancy. The second analyzes how the progress in the mortality schedule translates into progress in life expectancy. This paper discusses and compares the approaches proposed by the United Nations (1982), Arriaga (1984), Pollard (1982, 1988), and Vaupel (1986), identifying their problems, advantages, and the types of situations where each one can best be applied.     

The Pervasive and Persistent Influence of Caste on Child Mortality in India

This study examines the effect of caste on child mortality and maternal health care utilization in rural India using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) carried out during 1998–1999. Results from multilevel discrete-time hazard models indicate that, net of individual-level and community-level controls, children belonging to low castes have higher risks of death and women belonging to low castes have lower rates of antenatal and delivery care utilization than children and women belonging to upper castes. At the same time, the controls account for most of the differences within the low castes. Further analysis shows that the mortality disadvantage of low castes is more pronounced in poorer districts. These results highlight the need to target low caste members in the provision of maternal and child health services.     

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child.     

Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data

Summary.  Late life mortality patterns are of crucial interest to actuaries assessing risk of longevity, most obviously for annuities and defined benefit pension schemes. The stability of public finances is also affected, as the governments have very substantial risk of longevity in the form of state benefits and public sector pension schemes. One important explanatory variable for late life mortality patterns is year of birth. Previous work has demonstrated various techniques for detecting such patterns, but always with long time series of mortality rates. The paper describes two alternative ways to detect such patterns, even with missing population data or the absence of a time series. The paper finds support for the idea that different birth cohorts have different rates of aging.     

Some Aspects of Communicable and Non-communicable Diseases in Pacific Island Countries

This study provides an overview of the incidence of the communicable and non-communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries. Available health statistics confirms that children continue to die annually due to neonatal causes, diarrhoeal diseases, pneumonia and measles. The adult population in several countries reveals presence and emergence of communicable and non-communicable diseases. Among the communicable diseases is the prevalence of HIV/AIDS among the 15–49 years old age group, it is considered to be less than 0.1% in several countries but in Papua New Guinea (PNG), it is about 0.3%. Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, PNG and Solomon Islands reveal high prevalence of tuberculosis while PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are the three Malaria prone countries. In terms of non-communicable diseases, cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in several countries with Nauru recording highest incidence followed by Tuvalu, Marshall Islands and Fiji. People in several countries are in the pre-hypertension category with a high risk of developing hypertension. Several countries have serious obesity problems and in the Cook Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa and Tonga; more than 60% of population is obese, and in all countries females are more obese than males. Diabetes is prevalent in all countries and Nauru has the highest percentage of prevalence of diabetes while in Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Micronesia, approximately 8% of people aged 20 and above suffers from diabetes. Fiji, Nauru, PNG, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu reveal high incidences of cigarette smokers while the consumption of alcohol is high in Niue and in the Cook Islands.     

Ageing of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2006–2060

This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population ageing. The so-called scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error of the population forecast. Therefore, the error structures estimated for European countries were used with some modifications, taking into account the large size and heterogeneity of the Chinese population. The stochastic forecast confirms the expectation of extremely rapid population ageing during the first half of the twenty-first century in China. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) will certainly increase. Simply maintaining the current demographic rates (no international migration) would drive the OADR to 0.42 in 2060, four times the current level. Including expected declines in mortality and net outmigration in the projection would increase the median OADR in 2060 to 0.59, with a 80% prediction interval of [0.47, 0.75]. In particular, the oldest-old population will grow much faster than any other age group. This development has major implications for policy-making in China.

On damage accumulation and biological aging

If biological aging is understood as some process of damage accumulation, it does not necessarily lead to increasing mortality rate. Within the framework of suggested models and relevant examples we show that even for the monotonically increasing degradation, the mortality rate can, at least, ultimately decrease. Aging properties of systems with imperfect repair are also studied. It is shown that for some models of imperfect repair the corresponding age process is monotone and stable. This means that as t→∞$t\to \infty$, degradation slows down, which results in the mortality rate deceleration and its possible convergence to a constant.