The Cash Opportunity Costs of Childbearing: An Approach To Estimation Using British Data

The opportunity costs of rearing British children in terms of cash earnings foregone by their mother are estimated for a typical family. Data from the Women and Employment Survey (1980) provide estimates for hourly pay as a function of work experience and current hours of work. They also make possible the generation of participation and hours profiles for representative women with different numbers of children, which, together with the earnings function are used to simulate lifetime income. Earnings foregone as a result of bearing and rearing two children are roughly equally composed of three effects, on participation, hours and pay. They exceed direct costs, and do not rise proportionally with family size. They are sensitive to the spacing of births but not, undiscounted, to the timing of the first one. The method and results contrast markedly with those of a similarly motivated study of US women, by Calhoun and Espenshade. It is argued that the non-linearity of the earnings function and state dependence in British labour force transitions would violate the assumptions which permitted the US exercise to be based on a multi-state labour force life-table.     

Dynamics of contraceptive use and breastfeeding during the post-partum period in Peru and Indonesia

This paper examines the interaction between contraceptive use and breastfeeding in relation to resumption of intercourse and duration of amenorrhea post-partum. We used data from the month-by-month calendar of reproductive events from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Peru and Indonesia. The analyses show that breastfeeding women were less likely than non-breastfeeding women to have resumed sexual intercourse in the early months post-partum in both countries. In Peru, but not in Indonesia, breastfeeding women had a significantly lower odds than non-breastfeeding women of adopting contraception. Although the likelihood of contraceptive adoption was highest in the month women resumed menstruation in both countries, about ten per cent of subsequent pregnancies occurred to women before they resumed menses. These results emphasize the importance of integrating breastfeeding counselling and family planning services in programmes serving post-partum women, as a means of enabling those who wish to space their next birth to avoid exposure to the risk of a pregnancy that may precede the return of menses.     

The Economic Theory of Fertility Over Three Decades

A large proportion of cohabitors in the Statistics Norway Omnibus Surveys of 1996 reported economic reasons for their hesitation to marry, and in particular the costs of the wedding. In line with this, the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 revealed effects both of women's cumulated income and men's non-employment on the actual choice of union type. Also some other evidence suggests that affordability matters, although there are plausible alternative interpretations. On the other hand, several estimates suggest that economic strength does not induce marriage. Since there also has been no deterioration of young adults' economic situation in Norway, except for the delay of economic independence owing to longer college enrolment, one can hardly claim that lack of affordability is a dominating force behind the massive drift away from marriage. The analysis is anchored in a theoretical framework that may prove useful in other studies of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage.     

Assessing Differential Area Mortality Trends via Bayesian Random Effects

Changes in area mortality are important for assessing spatial health inequality. They are likely to be differentiated by age as well as spatially and may vary by demographic strata (e.g., gender, ethnic group). A simple approach assumes linear improvement in log mortality risks, with noninteracting area and age coefficients. By contrast, this article considers parsimonious models for mortality change allowing nonlinear trends and interactions between ages and areas in mortality levels and trends. A case study considers trends in mortality in 32 London boroughs over the 8-year period 1999–2006 for deaths data disaggregated by age, sex, and area.     

中国人口死亡率改善水平比较分析

 中国第六次人口普查数据如期公布,本文利用1981-2010年人口普查和人口抽样调查提供的死亡率数据,对四次人口普查期间中国人口死亡率改善水平进行深层次分析,分别按年龄、性别、城乡、是否投保等进行对比,并与其他国家的数据对比,旨在探讨中国人口死亡率变化趋势和不同分类人群死亡率改善的差异、成因及变动趋势,最终为长寿风险管理提供依据。主要结论是：建国以来,中国人口死亡率持续改善,死亡率改善程度随年龄的增长呈下降趋势,近十年来死亡率改善程度最高,特别是婴儿和55岁以上人口尤为明显。在大部分年龄组上,女性死亡率改善水平高于男性,市人口死亡率改善水平明显高于镇和乡,投保商业保险人口的死亡率改善水平高于全国人口,我国人口的死亡率改善水平高于对比国家,这反映了我国人民生活和医疗水平的实质提高,也表明未来死亡率还有较大的下降空间。