中国老年人口死亡模型北大核心CSSCI

中国老年人口的规模与比例急剧上升,预期寿命不断延长,老年人口死亡率变动趋势引起社会的广泛关注。本文采用1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年四次人口普查数据,选用10种参数模型分析比较65岁及以上老年人口累计死亡概率。研究发现逻辑斯蒂模型、冈泊茨-麦克汉姆模型、威布尔模型和广义极值模型能较好地拟合老年人口累计死亡概率。通过比较模型拟合结果与观测值之间的差异发现逻辑斯蒂模型整体上能较好地体现中国老年人口死亡模式;冈泊茨-麦克汉姆、广义极值、逆高斯、对数-逻辑斯蒂、对数-正态和威布尔六种模型的拟合结果在低龄老年阶段和高龄老年阶段低于观测值,在中龄老年阶段高于观测值;冈泊茨模型的拟合结果在低龄老年阶段和高龄老年阶段高于观测值;指数模型和伽玛模型的拟合结果在整个老年阶段均低于观测值。将最高年龄组由100岁拓展到130岁,发现逻辑斯蒂模型和威布尔模型预测结果较好。本文的研究结果为拟合不同老年阶段死亡模式选择合适的模型提供了方法借鉴。     

Why do the children of the poor die in Dhaka,Bangladesh?

Mortality data from much of the developing world show that the health advantage of urban over rural areas is being eroded. The single most important factor is the very high mortality of the slum populations, mostly rural-urban migrants in the large cities. This has been shown to be true of Dhaka, Bangladesh, where much of the mortality differential between the poor and other residents can be explained by higher mortality in the slums among young children, especially infants. This paper reports on a collaborative project, Access to Health and Reproductive Health Services in the Dhaka Slums, which confirmed this situation in a 1999 survey and employed an in-depth approach in 2000 to investigate the circumstances of child deaths. It is shown that these deaths mostly occur among illiterate rural-urban migrants who have brought pre-Islamic folk beliefs about illness and its treatment with them. This and cost in most cases preclude modern medical treatment. These disadvantages are reinforced by treatment decisions being made in a purdah society almost entirely by women, especially old women, with husbands and other male relatives often being beyond contact. Suggestions are advanced for improving the situation.     

Socioeconomic differentials in mortality in Finland and the United States: the role of education and income

We document social inequalities in cause-specific mortality at ages 35–64 in Finland and the United States, countries with different health systems, income distributions, and social welfare programs for the working-aged population. The education–mortality gradient was the most marked for Finnish men and for causes of death linked to risk-taking, health behaviors, and stress. The association between family income and mortality was curvilinear in both countries. The effects of education and income were strongly attenuated after controlling for each other, marital status, and labor force participation, with the greatest attenuation observed for income in Finland and education in the United States.Elo, I. T., Martikainen, P., et Smith, K. P. (2006). Mortalité sociale en Finlande et aux Etats-Unis: Róle du niveau d'instruction et du revenu. Revue Europeéenne de démographie, 22, 177–201     

Dead Reckoning: Demographic Determinants of the Accuracy of Mortality Risk Perceptions

General patterns of bias in risk beliefs are well established in the literature, but much less is known about how these biases vary across the population. Using a sample of almost 500 people, the regression analysis in this article yields results consistent with the well-established pattern that small risks are overassessed and large risks are underassessed. The accuracy of these risk beliefs varies across demographic factors, as does the switch point at which people go from underassessment to overassessment, which we found to be 1500 deaths annually for the full sample. Better educated people have more accurate risk beliefs, and there are important differences in the risk perception by race and gender that also may be of policy interest.     

内蒙古人口死亡率的地区分布特征及其影响因素分析

运用PEMS统计软件对第五次人口普查相关数据进行处理和比较性分析,描述与分析内蒙古自治区各盟市、不同区域分布的人口群体死亡水平及其影响因素。可以看出,内蒙古地区死亡水平的地理分布具有"东高西低,中部地区差距大"的特点,死亡水平较高的人口群体主要分布在内蒙古东部和部分中部地区,男性高于女性,农村牧区高于城镇。并就影响死亡水平的社会环境因素进行了量化分析。     

Urban Form,Heart Disease,and Geography: A Case Study in Composite Index Formation and Bayesian Spatial Modeling

Recent studies indicate a relationship between measures of urban form as applied to urban and suburban areas, and obesity, a risk factor for heart disease. Measures of urban form for exurban and rural areas are considerably scarce; such measures could prove useful in measuring relationships between urban form and both mortality and morbidity in such areas. In modeling area-level mortality, geographic relationships between counties warrant consideration because geographically adjacent areas tend to have more in common than areas farther from each other. We modify county-level indices of urban form found in the literature so that they can be applied to exurban and rural counties. We then use these indices in a Bayesian spatial model that accounts for spatial autocorrelation to determine if there is a relationship between such measures and cardiovascular disease mortality for white males age 35 and older for the time period 1999–2001. Issues related to the formation and usefulness of the indices, and issues related to the spatial model, are discussed. Maps of observed and expected relative risk of mortality are presented. Jimmie Givens retired from his service.     

社会支持对我国高龄老人死亡风险影响的Cox模型分析

文章运用中国高龄老人健康长寿跟踪调查纵向数据（1998～2005年）,对年龄范围在80～105岁的高龄老人进行考察,并基于Cox模型对社会支持于高龄老人死亡风险的影响机制进行探讨,对西方学者提出的社会支持的影响机制模型进行实证检验。结果表明,从我国的现实意义来看,社会支持对健康的影响是针对不健康的人群起到了缓冲作用,社会支持和健康变量之间存在着交互作用。另外,社会支持中的生活照料和情感支持对改善我国高龄老人的健康状况具有显著效果。     

有限数据下Lee-Carter模型在人口死亡率预测中的应用

Lee-Carter模型是当今世界上最流行的死亡率建模与预测模型,传统的Lee-Carter模型在样本量很大时才能得到较好的效果,而中国的死亡率数据量较少,且部分年限的数据缺失,从而难以达到较好的预测效果。本文基于Li等(2004)提出的有限数据死亡率建模方法,同时考虑样本量不足的影响,采用韩猛等(2010)提出的“双随机过程”建模,构建了有限数据下中国人口死亡率的预测模型,并用于对未来死亡率变动趋势和人口寿命的预测,最后将预测结果与保险公司采用的死亡率改善因子以及社会养老保险个人账户中采用的计发月数进行对比分析,给出了若干相关结论和有关死亡率风险管理的建议。     

Heterogeneity's Ruses: Some Surprising Effects of Selection on Population Dynamics

As a cohort of people, animals, or machines ages, the individuals at highest risk tend to die or exit first. This differential selection can produce patterns of mortality for the population as a whole that are surprisingly different from the patterns for subpopulations or individuals. Naive acceptance of observed population patterns may lead to erroneous policy recommendations if an intervention depends on the response of individuals. Furthermore, because patterns at the individual level may be simpler than composite population patterns, both theoretical and empirical research may be unnecessarily complicated by failure to recognize the effects of heterogeneity.