Properties of occurrence-exposure rate processes in multiple decrement theory

In a basic multiple decrement model empirical occurrence-exposure rates are defined for each of k risks to which a cohort from an animal or human population is exposed over a time interval. These rates are viewed as the evolution of a stochastic process. Some asymptotic properties of this process are considered. Weak convergence of the process and its uniform strong convergence are shown under mild conditions.     

2002～2007年上海市人群死亡与节气变化关系研究

文章利用2002～2007年上海市人群死亡资料,计算不同节气的每天死亡数,采用圆形统计分布和超额死亡比,分析不同人群和死因的节气分布。得出:人群死亡的节气超额死亡比从立冬以后增长明显,至小寒、大寒节气达到一年的最高峰。男性和女性死亡节气的分布特点相似,而不同年龄组死亡节气分布不同。研究显示,节气能较准确地综合反映一年中不同时间气象的变化,对在时间上预警某些疾病的死亡危险,保护和干预高危人群具有一定的意义。     

Russian Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics

Mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia has the fastest rate of increase compared to all other major causes of death. High proportion of deaths in this category is indicative for low quality of mortality statistics. This article examines the trends and possible causes of mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia. During 1991–2005, mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia increased in all age groups. The pace of increase was particularly high at working ages and the mean expected age at death from ill-defined conditions has shifted to younger ages, particularly for men. The analysis of individual medical death certificates issued in Kirov and Smolensk regions of Russia demonstrate that 89–100% of working-age deaths from ill-defined conditions correspond to human bodies found in a state of decomposition. Data from Smolensk region shows that over 60% of these decedents were unemployed. Temporal trends of mortality from ill-defined conditions and injuries of undetermined intent in Moscow city suggest that deaths from the latter cause were probably misclassified as ill-defined conditions. This practice can lead to underestimation of mortality from external causes. Growing number of socially isolated marginalized people in Russia and insufficient investigation of the circumstances of their death contribute to the observed trends in mortality from ill-defined conditions.     

Thank God it's Friday: The weekly cycle of mortality in Israel

The purpose of this study was to explore the weeklycycle of mortality among Jews in Israel. Drawing onprevious research on the association between holy-daysand the timing of death, we hypothesized thatmortality of Jews declines on Sabbath (Saturday), andrises to a peak on Sundays. We analysed daily numbersof deaths of Jewish men and women aged 5 and above inIsrael from 1983 to 1992, and found a clear andsignificant dip-peak pattern in the number of deathsaround the Sabbath. This pattern was found for allcauses of death, was stronger for men than for women,and was not found among young Jewish children, oramong the non-Jewish population.     

Gender equality and the sex differential in mortality from accidents in high income nations

Despite their neglect by researchers relative to other causes of death, motor vehicle and other accidents contribute substantially to sex differences in mortality and address theoretical debates over the consequences of gender equality. A reduction-in-protection hypothesis argues that gender equality reduces the female advantage in accident mortality, a reduction-in-inequality hypothesis argues that gender equality increases the advantage, and an institutional adjustment hypothesis argues that gender equality initially reduces and then increases the advantage. The analysis tests these hypotheses using data on age-specific male and female accident mortality rates and indicators of work and family status for 18 high income nations from 1955–1994.In support of the institutional adjustment hypothesis, declining differentials in male and female motor vehicle and other accident mortality rates level off and sometimes increase in recent years, and measures of work and family change generally have similar curvilinear influences on the differential. Across nations, gender equality speeds the reversal in the differential for motor vehicle accidents, but not for other accidents.     

Educational differences in health risks and illness over the life course: A test of cumulative disadvantage theory

This study tests the cumulative disadvantage hypothesis by examining the age-varying relationships between education, health risks, and disease onset and survival duration. Results based on 20 years of longitudinal data suggest that education is related to both the individual and accumulated number of behavioral, social, and economic health-risks, which in turn, are related to increasing educational differences in rates of disease incidence and survival. For hypertension, behavioral risks fully account for education’s negative effect on disease onset whereas educational differences in survival are best explained by the accumulation of social and economic risks. For heart attack, a combination of behavioral, social, and economic risks mediate the association between education and incidence, but neither the individual nor accumulated health-risks could account for education’s positive effect on surviving after a heart attack. Similar findings for diabetes and stroke are also discussed.     

Educational differences in mortality associated with central obesity: Decomposing the contribution of risk and prevalence

Thousands of preventable deaths are attributed to obesity in the United States. However, the harmfulness of obesity varies across the population; individuals’ education determines access to healthful resources and exposure to competing risks, dampening/amplifying obesity-associated mortality risk. Using restricted U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (N = 40,058; 1988–2015), this study estimates educational differences in mortality attributable to central obesity (waist-to-height ratio ≥0.5) – a dangerous form of abdominal adiposity. Over 30% of excess deaths are attributable to central obesity among college-educated adults, compared to 1–10% among their less-educated counterparts. This difference is larger for cardiometabolic-related mortality, as central obesity may explain 60–70% of excess deaths among college-educated adults. Decomposition analyses show differences are driven by greater obesity-associated risk among college-educated adults, rather than prevalence. Policies targeting health disparities should recognize central obesity as a key risk among highly-educated adults, but only one of many encountered by those with less education.     

Willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions: Does latency matter?

Using results from two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Canada and the U.S., we explore the effect of a latency period on willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced mortality risk using a structural model. We find that delaying the time at which the risk reduction occurs by 10 to 30 years reduces WTP by more than 60% for respondents in both samples aged 40 to 60 years. The implicit discount rates are equal to 3.0–8.6% for Canada and 1.3–5.6% for the U.S. JEL Classification Q51 · Q58 The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the USEPA or of the World Bank, its Executive Directors or the countries they represent.     

The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India

We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks, as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life (VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars.