A Rule For Updating Ambiguous Beliefs

When preferences are such that there is no unique additive prior, the issue of which updating rule to use is of extreme importance. This paper presents an axiomatization of the rule which requires updating of all the priors by Bayes rule. The decision maker has conditional preferences over acts. It is assumed that preferences over acts conditional on event E happening, do not depend on lotteries received on E ^c, obey axioms which lead to maxmin expected utility representation with multiple priors, and have common induced preferences over lotteries. The paper shows that when all priors give positive probability to an event E, a certain coherence property between conditional and unconditional preferences is satisfied if and only if the set of subjective probability measures considered by the agent given E is obtained by updating all subjective prior probability measures using Bayes rule.     

战略柔性的增强途径

战略柔性是企业以内部结构的可调整性和变革性应对环境变化的能力。企业要根据外部环境以及内部结构特征,确定适合本企业的战略柔性增强途径:以外部环境的不确定性为导向,以影响柔性因素的内部结构体系为基础,以结构调整的变革成本为依据,从降低变革成本的因素中归纳出有效的增强途径。     

A note on the adaptive control of false discovery rates

Summary.  The use of a fixed rejection region for multiple hypothesis testing has been shown to outperform standard fixed error rate approaches when applied to control of the false discovery rate. In this work it is demonstrated that, if the original step-up procedure of Benjamini and Hochberg is modified to exercise adaptive control of the false discovery rate, its performance is virtually identical to that of the fixed rejection region approach. In addition, the dependence of both methods on the proportion of true null hypotheses is explored, with a focus on the difficulties that are involved in the estimation of this quantity.     

《祖堂集》中的助词"许"及其相关结构

《祖堂集》中的助词“许”可以处于两种不同的限定性结构,其不同在于二者语法位置前后互补。两种结构均表极小数量意义,具备行业特征。     

论文艺制度的构成要素

文艺制度是保障文艺运行和发展的必要条件和基础。文艺制度的构成要素一方面指物态化的体制、建制、设施、组织、社团等;另一方面指意识观念化的方针、政策、措施、规定及其文化传统和文化惯例等。文艺制度体系中的文艺生产制度、文艺检查制度、文艺评价制度、文艺市场制度、文艺保护制度等构成内容的系统性使之成为统一协调的整体,通过自我调节不断丰富和完善,也不断改革和发展,因而强化文艺制度的制度化建设和法制化建设是十分重要的。     

农村社会信任结构及其变迁——一种复线史观的解读

信任是一种嵌入在社会结构和制度之中的社会机制。与传统达尔文进化论史观不同,复线史观认为乡村社会信任结构的变迁来自于内核—边层历史逻辑的变革与承异,是边层内嵌与内核调整互动的建构结果。     

Analysis of longitudinal multiple-source binary data using generalized estimating equations

Summary.  We present a multivariate logistic regression model for the joint analysis of longitudinal multiple-source binary data. Longitudinal multiple-source binary data arise when repeated binary measurements are obtained from two or more sources, with each source providing a measure of the same underlying variable. Since the number of responses on each subject is relatively large, the empirical variance estimator performs poorly and cannot be relied on in this setting. Two methods for obtaining a parsimonious within-subject association structure are considered. An additional complication arises with estimation, since maximum likelihood estimation may not be feasible without making unrealistically strong assumptions about third- and higher order moments. To circumvent this, we propose the use of a generalized estimating equations approach. Finally, we present an analysis of multiple-informant data obtained longitudinally from a psychiatric interventional trial that motivated the model developed in the paper.     

加入WTO后的中国经济及日本的对策

虽然东亚产业分布正从"一极集中"到"多极分散",中国东部沿海也在迅速崛起,但笔者依然反对"中国威胁论",认为中国实行的是"非完全、彻底的"市场化,且沿海地区的迅速发展不能代替说明整个中国的发展。与此同时,加入WTO之后会对中国经济和世界经济产生深远的影响,并将成为日本及其国民真正迈向国际化的契机。日本要想有效地利用好中国的优势,一方面应与中国地方政府合作,支持本地中小企业的对外发展,另一方面必须大力推进内部国际化。     

道教生命哲学的内在构造及现代意义

道教生命哲学以“道”为本源,认为“道生万物”,而人的个体生命与“道”之间是一种特殊与普遍、具体与抽象的关系。“精”、“气”、“神”作为道教生命哲学中的三个重要范畴是联结“道”与人的生命的纽带。通过对“精”、“气”、“神”的阐释,道教得出了人的个体生命只有一次、不会重复的结论,由此提出了珍惜现世生命、“人命最重”的哲学命题。道教由注重珍惜人的生命,逐渐上升到企图通过种种方法来保全生命,进而超越生命,与“道”共存的观念。这种对人类生命无限关爱和永恒呵护的哲学思想,在21世纪的今天,仍然具有作用社会、造福人类的价值。     

调整二元结构 推进城乡经济一体化

“三农”问题的症结在于中国传统的城乡二元结构以及不合理的制度安排,要改变中国传统的城乡二元结构以及不合理的制度安排,需要进行一系列制度改革的共同努力,才能逐步实现城乡一体化。实现城乡一体化要在市场化的基础上,站在统筹城乡发展的高度调整二元结构、推进城乡经济同步发展。