四川省甘孜州、阿坝州城镇女性从业者的就业结构与驱动因素探究——基于全国第四次经济普查四川省数据的分析

就业是民生之基,是社会稳定之本,也是女性劳动者的基本权利、提高女性自身经济地位的重要手段,更是性别平等的测试器。在四川省甘孜州、阿坝州,城镇女性从业者在教育、卫生等行业有较高从业优势,就业集中分布于公共管理、教育、卫生、文化等领域,在零售、餐饮、住宿等市场化行业的集中度不明显;产业结构、城镇化与乡城劳动力转移、民营经济发展水平、城镇女性人力资本以及择业观念等影响城镇女性的行业就业行为;传统服务业与线上业态、旅游相关产业、生态红利产业、农业产业链延伸产业等是未来城镇女性劳动力的就业拓展领域;提升女性人力资本有助于女性从业者的就业结构优化。     

A statistical procedure for representing state fragility and transition paths

State fragility is a concept that entered the political discourse in the last decades producing remarkable implications for aid allocation and international policies. The operationalization of this concept has generated a number of composite indices to produce rankings of fragile states. However, the temporal dimension of the driving forces leading to fragility has been rather neglected. This article discusses a statistical procedure that helps to represent the global fragility of a country and the path that a country has followed or will follow in the future when possibly entering into (or escaping from) a fragility condition. Specifically, multiple factor analysis is applied to depict vulnerable and weak countries, and to identify the fundamental forces that determine their overall fragility. Moreover, the trajectories of countries along the years are estimated using partial factor scores. Finally, the path of each country is predicted by means of parsimonious regression models, based on a reduced set of explanatory variables, and according to scenarios elaborated from available international outlooks.     

A new look at clustering coefficients with generalization to weighted and multi-faction networks

In this paper we propose a new method for studying local and global clustering in networks employing random walk pairs. The method is intuitive and directly generalizes standard local and global clustering coefficients to weighted networks and networks containing nodes of multiple types. In the case of two-mode networks the values obtained for commonly considered social networks are in sharp contrast to those obtained, for instance, by the method of Opsahl (2013), and provide a different viewpoint for clustering. The approach is also applicable in questions related to the general study of segregation and homophily. Applications to existent data sets are considered.     

A classification approach based on the outranking model for multiple criteria ABC analysis

The multiple criteria ABC analysis is widely used in inventory management, and it can help organizations to assign inventory items into different classes with respect to several evaluation criteria. Many approaches have been proposed in the literature for addressing such a problem. However, most of these approaches are fully compensatory in multiple criteria aggregation. This means that an item scoring badly on one or more key criteria could be placed in good classes because these bad performances could be compensated by other criteria. Thus, it is necessary to consider the non-compensation in the multiple criteria ABC analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the ABC classification problem with non-compensation among criteria has not been studied sufficiently. We thus propose a new classification approach based on the outranking model to cope with such a problem in this paper. However, the relational nature of the outranking model makes the search for the optimal classification solution a complex combinatorial optimization problem. It is very time-consuming to solve such a problem using mathematical programming techniques when the inventory size is large. Therefore, we combine the clustering analysis and the simulated annealing algorithm to search for the optimal classification. The clustering analysis groups similar inventory items together and builds up the hierarchy of clusters of items. The simulated annealing algorithm searches for the optimal classification on different levels of the hierarchy. The proposed approach is illustrated by a practical example from a Chinese manufacturer. Furthermore, we validate the performance of the approach through experimental investigation on a large set of artificially generated data at the end of the paper.     

国家制度能力与经济结构调整——基于转型期的中俄比较研究

经济转型不仅使中俄两国的经济体制发生了重大转变,而且使两国的经济结构发生了深刻调整。俄罗斯不仅形成了混乱的市场体制和分裂的社会结构,而且形成了一种去工业化、去现代化的资源依赖型经济结构。中国在转型进程中形成的是一种政府主导的可控的市场经济社会,并处于工业化的迅速爬升阶段。导致中俄两国经济结构差异的一个关键因素就是国家制度能力。一个能力充分的国家能够根据内外环境的变化对经济结构进行适应性调整,实现社会经济持续、快速、平衡发展的目标;反之,则可能导致经济结构退化,经济发展停滞,乃至国家竞争优势的丧失。后危机时代,中俄两国依然面临着深化经济转型和推进发展模式转变的重任,如何塑造适宜的国家制度能力,是推动经济结构进一步调整优化的重要动力。     

中国—东盟自贸区对河北省产业结构调整的影响

区域经济一体化是当前世界经济发展的主要趋势之一,中国经济的发展不可避免地要汇入到区域经济一体化的洪流当中,2010年1月1日建成的中国—东盟自由贸易区便是一个典型。河北省是一个地理位置和经济发展状况都具有特殊性的省份,其正在进行的产业结构调整也不可避免地要受到中国—东盟自由贸易区建立的影响。本文初步分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区给河北省产业结构调整带来的影响,并提出了相关对策与建议。     

跨界融合,全面提升中国传媒的国际传播力

中国传媒在国际传播格局中处于弱势,为了全面提升中国传媒的国际传播力,要制定国家文化发展战略,树立文化传播的主体意识;争夺有效话语权;提升对外翻译的影响力;借鉴国外媒体的经验、现成的国际传播渠道,提高与境外媒体打交道的能力;构建合理的现代传播体系,打造国际一流媒体。     

多元线性回归分析及其实际应用

本文主要介绍了多元线性回归分析的数学模型.同时结合实例演示了应用R软件实现多元线性回归的过程.     

人口年龄结构、经济增长与中国居民消费

本文以生命周期假说为理论基础,运用中国2002-2008年的省级面板数据分析了人口年龄结构变化和经济增长对中国居民消费率的影响.实证研究发现:人口结构因素和收入增长率对居民消费有着显著的影响.其中,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比间分别存在正相关关系和负相关关系,与经济增长率之间存在负相关关系.然而,在分别对东、中、西部地区的研究中却发现,消费率与抚养比以及经济增长率的关系并不与全国保持一致,这些差别反映了区域间经济社会发展差距以及不同地区老龄化程度的差异.     

从收入分配和经济发展的角度看我国的最低工资制度

本文基于我国的一些特殊的国情,从动态的视角出发,讨论了最低工资制度对我国收入分配格局和经济发展的影响.本文研究认为,由于我国特殊的国情,一种合适的最低工资制度在我国可能会产生以下三种效应:第一,最低工资制度具有改善我国收入分配格局,缩小收入差距的功能;第二,一个各地区有差别的最低工资限制可能会促进我国的产业结构向内地转移,促进我国的产业结构升级;第三,长期来看,最低工资限制可能会强制低人力资本工资进行人力资本投资,有助于我国人力资本的提升.