自愿不育的人口社会学视角

文章通过对目前人口形势和不育群体现状的分析 ,从人口学和社会学的角度对不育文化作了论述 ,最后分析了几个值得深入探讨的社会问题     

战后德国的男性人口短缺——规模、结构及其影响因素分析

本文对战后德国男性人口短缺的规模、结构及其影响因素进行了认真的分析.研究表明战后德国男性人口短缺非常严重,但随着时间的推移,男性短缺矛盾逐年趋于缓和.究其原因,性别结构因素在其中扮演了绝对重要的角色,但其影响逐年减弱,年龄结构因素的影响有限,而人口规律因素的影响则有所增强.     

A two phases queueing system with Bernoulli vacation schedule under multiple vacation policy

This paper deals with a single server Poisson arrival queue with two phases of heterogeneous service along with a Bernoulli schedule vacation model, where after two successive phases service the server either goes for a vacation with probability p (0≤p≤1) or may continue to serve the next unit, if any, with probability q(=1−p). Further the concept of multiple vacation policy is also introduced here. We obtained the queue size distributions at a departure epoch and at a random epoch, Laplace Stieltjes Transform of the waiting time distribution and busy period distribution along with some mean performance measures. Finally we discuss some statistical inference related issues.     

西部地区产业升级的推动力分析

产业结构是重要的经济结构 ,产业升级对经济发展有积极的促进作用。本文着重分析了西部地区产业升级的影响因素 ,指出技术进步和政策因素是其产业升级最基本的推动力 ,西部地区应通过发展技术和制度创新来促进产业结构优化     

从人口性别结构谈构建和谐宜宾

从出生人口、分年龄段人口、城乡人口、不同受教育程度人口、各行业就业人口等方面分析了宜宾市人口性别结构失衡的现状,指出人口性别结构失衡的关键是出生人口性别比严重偏高,其偏高的原因大致可归结为文化背景、经济条件、社会环境、医术变化、统计误差等。治理出生人口性别比偏高,需要在各级党委、政府的统一领导下,动员社会各界力量,采取多种措施,坚持标本兼治,实行综合治理。这一问题得到有效解决,才能为实现构建和谐社会目标提供人口安全保障。     

产品市场竞争程度对企业融资行为的影响

许多研究表明我国上市公司存在较强的股权融资偏好。国内学者根据代理理论认为股权融资过多的企业未能充分利用财务杠杆而使企业绩效下降,而本文主要从产品市场竞争对资本结构影响这一角度来研究上市公司的融资行为。研究发现,上市公司的股权融资偏好和上市公司治理结构不完善、代理问题严重等体制和政策因素有关,但是,激烈的产品市场竞争也是导致企业采用低财务杠杆的重要原因,而且由于这一原因而导致的财务保守行为是合理的,它是企业为避免财务风险提高产品市场竞争能力而采取的战略行为。     

探析帛书本《老子》的逻辑结构

在帛书本《老子》各单元甚或每章内都存在着"从形而上之道的认识到形而下之德的修行"的逻辑规律。这种从上到下(从知到行)、再从下到上的状态形成一种"波浪"状的递进结构(以下简称"波浪式结构"),说明《老子》是一本有逻辑思维一贯性、有内在中心思想或者说有"基本精神"的书,是一本完整的个人著作而非许多个人的箴言集。     

Morality rebooted: Exploring simple fixes to our moral bugs

Ethics research developed partly in response to calls from organizations to understand and solve unethical behavior. We examine two approaches to mitigating unethical behavior: (1) values-oriented approaches that broadly appeal to individuals’ preferences to be more moral, and (2) structure-oriented approaches that redesign specific incentives, tasks, and decisions to reduce temptations to cheat in the environment. This paper explores how these approaches can change behavior. We argue that integrating both approaches while avoiding incompatible strategies can reduce the risk of adverse effects that arise from taking a single approach and leverage the strengths of both approaches.     

A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

AN ALTERNATIVE PARAMETRIC APPROACH FOR DISCRETE MISSING DATA PROBLEMS

We propose an iterative method of estimation for discrete missing data problems that is conceptually different from the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm and that does not in general yield the observed data maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). The proposed approach is based conceptually upon weighting the set of possible complete-data MLEs. Its implementation avoids the expectation step of EM, which can sometimes be problematic. In the simple case of Bernoulli trials missing completely at random, the iterations of the proposed algorithm are equivalent to the EM iterations. For a familiar genetics-oriented multinomial problem with missing count data and for the motivating example with epidemiologic applications that involves a mixture of a left censored normal distribution with a point mass at zero, we investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator and find it to be competitive with that of the MLE. We give some intuitive justification for the method, and we explore an interesting connection between our algorithm and multiple imputation in order to suggest an approach for estimating standard errors.