A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

AN ALTERNATIVE PARAMETRIC APPROACH FOR DISCRETE MISSING DATA PROBLEMS

We propose an iterative method of estimation for discrete missing data problems that is conceptually different from the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm and that does not in general yield the observed data maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). The proposed approach is based conceptually upon weighting the set of possible complete-data MLEs. Its implementation avoids the expectation step of EM, which can sometimes be problematic. In the simple case of Bernoulli trials missing completely at random, the iterations of the proposed algorithm are equivalent to the EM iterations. For a familiar genetics-oriented multinomial problem with missing count data and for the motivating example with epidemiologic applications that involves a mixture of a left censored normal distribution with a point mass at zero, we investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator and find it to be competitive with that of the MLE. We give some intuitive justification for the method, and we explore an interesting connection between our algorithm and multiple imputation in order to suggest an approach for estimating standard errors.     

Multi-objectives exception management model for semiconductor back-end environment under turnkey service

On-time delivery is the need for customer satisfaction which is a critical factor in the survival of the semiconductor industry. The on-time-delivery performance of the whole semiconductor turnkey service depends on the performance of the back-end factories. Unfortunately, undesirable and inevitable production variations make it difficult to maintain and improve a factory's performance and more objectives such as cycle time, throughput rate and the due-date accuracy need to be simultaneously considered. This paper presents an exception management model in order to compromise the contradicting needs of delivery accuracy, throughput rate and cycle time. The exception model can be divided into three parts: (1) an integrated performance index is proposed to compromise multiple performance measures; (2) an AWDL (available WIP deviation level) determination model is designed to gather proper AWDLs for triggering exceptions and (3) a WIP correction action is proposed to make abnormal WIP levels back to normal levels as soon as possible. To evaluate the proposed WIP exception management model, a simulation model is constructed and experiments are then conducted. The simulation results show that the proposed model helps back-end factories to set proper exception triggering conditions, reduce uncertainty occurrences and achieve better performances on due dates.     

A pattern-mixture odds ratio model for incomplete categorical data

Most models for incomplete data are formulated within the selection model framework. Pattern-mixture models are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, both from an interpretational as well as from a computational point of view (Little 1993, Hogan and Laird 1997, Ekholm and Skinner 1998). Whereas most applications are either for continuous normally distributed data or for simplified categorical settings such as contingency tables, we show how a multivariate odds ratio model (Molenberghs and Lesaffre 1994, 1998) can be used to fit pattern-mixture models to repeated binary outcomes with continuous covariates. Apart from point estimation, useful methods for interval estimation are presented and data from a clinical study are analyzed to illustrate the methods.     

A Bayesian discovery procedure

Summary.  We discuss a Bayesian discovery procedure for multiple-comparison problems. We show that, under a coherent decision theoretic framework, a loss function combining true positive and false positive counts leads to a decision rule that is based on a threshold of the posterior probability of the alternative. Under a semiparametric model for the data, we show that the Bayes rule can be approximated by the optimal discovery procedure, which was recently introduced by Storey. Improving the approximation leads us to a Bayesian discovery procedure, which exploits the multiple shrinkage in clusters that are implied by the assumed non-parametric model. We compare the Bayesian discovery procedure and the optimal discovery procedure estimates in a simple simulation study and in an assessment of differential gene expression based on microarray data from tumour samples. We extend the setting of the optimal discovery procedure by discussing modifications of the loss function that lead to different single-thresholding statistics. Finally, we provide an application of the previous arguments to dependent (spatial) data.     

Controlling the familywise error rate with plug-in estimator for the proportion of true null hypotheses

Summary.  Estimation of the number or proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple-testing problems has become an interesting area of research. The first important work in this field was performed by Schweder and Spjøtvoll. Among others, they proposed to use plug-in estimates for the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple-test procedures to improve the power. We investigate the problem of controlling the familywise error rate FWER when such estimators are used as plug-in estimators in single-step or step-down multiple-test procedures. First we investigate the case of independent p -values under the null hypotheses and show that a suitable choice of plug-in estimates leads to control of FWER in single-step procedures. We also investigate the power and study the asymptotic behaviour of the number of false rejections. Although step-down procedures are more difficult to handle we briefly consider a possible solution to this problem. Anyhow, plug-in step-down procedures are not recommended here. For dependent p -values we derive a condition for asymptotic control of FWER and provide some simulations with respect to FWER and power for various models and hypotheses.     

产业集群中跨国子公司战略地位与母子关系的演进

本文首先基于理论分析,指出优势产业集群中的跨国子公司完全有可能成为跨国公司竞争优势的来源。由此,文章分析了集群中跨国子公司存在的四类知识流以及影响四类知识流方向和流量大小的三种重要影响因素,并根据后两个因素区分了集群中子公司在跨国公司内部战略地位上的差异。基于战略与结构的孪生性,本文论述了集群中跨国公司母子关系的变迁,分析了集群中子公司的双重根植性。     

中国上市公司终极控制权及其与东亚、西欧上市公司的比较分析

本文运用终极产权论对上市公司的控股主体进行分类,通过追踪上市公司终极控制股东,发现在1260家样本公司中,终极控制股东拥有的控制权平均为43.67%,而其投入的现金流平均只有39.33%,就是说控制股东投入的现金流显著小于其获得的控制权,有4.34%的差异,两者的比值为0.890。在三种终极控制股东中,家族企业投入了相对较少的现金流量,却取得了相对较多的控制权,控制权和现金流量权的偏离达到了49.16%。同时,通过对中国上市公司和东亚、西欧国家的上市公司进行比较分析,得出了许多有意义的结论。     

《史记·本纪》中比喻的结构和功能

本文认为<史记·本纪>运用比喻有两个特色1、多类结构,2、辩说功能.     

主动形式表被动意义的语表及语义分析

在英语中,被动意义除了最常用的“be+V—ed”结构之外,有时也可以采用主动形式来表示,只不过句子的语义功能则由原来强调动作的承受者变为强调人或事物处于某种静止状态之中。本文初步探讨了这些主动形式的语法结构及语义特征。