长春市人口和计划生育委员会“三关爱”理论与实践研讨会纪实

“三关爱”理念是一项意义深远的理论创新成果,是对以人为本、大人口观、服务型政府等重要概念的具体解读,在理论上具有创新性,在内容上具有科学性,在操作上具有可行性。这一理念体现了执政为民、与时俱进的时代精神,体现了稳定低生育水平和提高人口健康水平的双重要求,具有重要的导向作用,昭示了我国未来人口计生工作文明的发展方向。“三关爱”密切了干群关系、党群关系,和谐了群众关系、家庭关系,不仅对我国人口计生工作具有重要的导向作用,而且在更广阔的政府公共管理与社会服务领域的改革方面也具有重要的借鉴和指导意义。     

Posterior consistency in frailty models and simulation studies to test the presence of random effects

The estimation of random effects in frailty models is an important problem in survival analysis. Testing for the presence of random effects can be essential to improving model efficiency. Posterior consistency in dispersion parameters and coefficients of the frailty model was demonstrated in theory and simulations using the posterior induced by Cox’s partial likelihood and simple priors. We also conducted simulation studies to test for the presence of random effects; the proposed method performed well in several simulations. Data analysis was also conducted. The proposed method is easily tractable and can be used to develop various methods for Bayesian inference in frailty models.     

Some properties of the generalized TTT transform

Recently Li and Shaked [2007. A general family of univariate stochastic orders. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 3601–3610] introduced the generalized total time on test (GTTT) transform with respect to a given function ?$?$. In this paper we study some properties of it which are related with stochastic orderings. A concept of Lehmann and Rojo [1992. Invariant directional orderings. Ann. Statist. 20, 2100–2110] is applied to a new setting and the GTTT transform is used to define invariance properties and distances of some stochastic orders. Iterations of the GTTT transforms are also studied and their relations with exponential mixtures of gamma distributions are established.     

Declining employment success of immigrant males in Sweden: Observed or unobserved characteristics?

Focusing on Nordic and Yugoslavian immigrant males, we study the determinants of employment success of natives and immigrants in Sweden. Furthermore, we investigate the reasons behind the arising gap in employment success between Swedes and immigrants from 1970 to 1990. In a decomposition analysis, we find that the main part of the decline in the employment probability of immigrants relative to Swedes over time is explained by a change in coefficients (unobserved characteristics) rather than a change in determinants (observed characteristics). Received: 22 June 1998/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

转指“X的”拾疑

考察“X的”是表自指还是表转指，首先要区别两种不同的“X的”，对“成分提取’产生的“X的”进行分析时，既要看其中动词的价数，还要考虑名词的价数，并且对动词的价数要有正确的认定。     

Comparison of dispersal ability between the green leafhoppers,Nephotettix virescens andN. cincticeps (hemiptera: Cicadellidae) by tethered flight

Summary Dispersal propensity of green leafhoppers was compared between a tropical species,Nephotettix virescens, and a temperate species,N. cincticeps. The flight ability was measured with tethered flight technique under laboratory conditions (25°C, 16L-8D). The pre-flight period was shorter and the flight duration was longer inN. virescens than inN. cincticeps in both sexes. No significant correlations were found between the flight activity and morphometric characters for either of the two species. The results suggested that dispersal propensity ofN. virescens is higher than that ofN. cincticeps.     

Comprehensive model for child services: Parent education follow through program

One program which provides comprehensive child and family services is the Parent Education Follow Through Program. Developed at the University of Florida in 1968 by Dr. Ira J. Gordon and moved to the University of North Carolina in 1977, this program is currently implemented in ten diverse communities across the nation, both rural and urban. Using a theoretical ecological framework, the program focuses on the relationship between the home and the school with attention also given to other systems present in the community as well as at the state and national levels. The major features of the program include the following: (1) comprehensive services (social, psychological, and medical); (2) weekly home visitations by paid paraprofessionals during which home learning activities stressing specific parental teaching behaviors are delivered; and (3) parental participation of various kinds including volunteer, employee and decision-maker. The data that have been collected to measure these program areas have shown that the model has had a positive impact upon children's achievement as well as upon their families, the school, and the community.     

The World Bank model for global interdependence: A quantitative framework for the World Development Report

This paper describes the basic structure of the Global Model used in preparing various parts of the World Development Report (WDR) issued annually by the World Bank. The report is designed to help clarify linkages between the international economy and the domestic strategies of developing countries. The paper is divided in four parts. The first two present different aspects of the model structure and discuss the reasons that induced the authors to orient themselves towards given functional specifications. In the final parts the policy relevance of the exercise is studied in light of the results that the model has produced for 1975–1985.     

科学·哲学·文化--兼谈"李约瑟难题”

哲学作为一种世界观是文化的核心,科学作为人们关于自然界的一种系统化、理论化的知识体系与哲学紧密相关,因此,科学、哲学和文化相互匹配,相互影响,相互促进,共同组成了一个有机整体.这就意味着,在不同的文化模式中会诞生不同的科学形态.以此为出发点,作者对所谓的"李约瑟难题”进行了剖析在中国哲学、文化土壤上诞生不出西方意义上的科学就如同鸡蛋里孵不出小鸭一样,是必然的事;同样,由于中国哲学、文化不可能为西方科学提供适宜的养料,所以西方科学这棵大树在中国的土壤上生长得枝枯叶黄.