城乡协调推进“三结合”,开展“五关爱”活动的分析与思考

城乡协调推进“三结合”,开展“五关爱”活动,是计划生育工作新的工作模式和运行机制。对提高人口计生工作的管理水平具有重要的实际意义和积极的推动作用。     

Kin availability and the living arrangements of older women

This paper models the distribution of older women across household types, taking account of variations in the availability of kin, as well as other explanatory variables such as income and race. Household types are distinguished by the presence or absence in the household of siblings, parents, children, or others, including unrelated individuals. A modified multinomial logit model is used to represent the simultaneous effects of kin availability and other variables on the probability of living in each household type. The results indicate that while income is related to the propensity to live alone, the relationship appears to operate solely through the effect of income upon the propensity to share a household with close relatives. Older black women are shown to be more likely to live in extended-family households, holding constant both income and the availability of kin.     

论政府经济行为悖论——中国经济改革速度缓慢的原因之三

关于中国经济改革的大部分理论问题 ,经过近 2 0年的讨论 ,已基本论证清楚 ,剩下的问题则是政府如何做。政府经济行为的成败将取决于中国经济改革的成败与速度。本文讨论政府经济行为悖论的表现、原因、具体问题的解决办法 ,意在总结经验和减少失误出现的可能性     

An evaluation of the Tokyo Round trade agreement using general equilibrium computational methods

An empirically based general equilibrium model involving the United States, Japan, the (nine-member) EEC, and a residual rest of the world is used to evaluate the Tokyo Round trade agreement negotiated under the GATT. Equilibria for post-Agreement policy regimes are computed and compared to a pre-Agreement equilibrium. Results indicate small aggregate welfare impacts but more significant terms of trade effects. Losses seem likely for Third World countries due to an adverse terms of trade change. Under some assumptions the changes in NTB codes produce more significant effects than the tariff cuts in the Agreement.     

关于哲学原理的观念——中西哲学的一种比较研究

通过对原理观念起源的追溯,以及对作为原理的哲学形态特征的分析,我们发现作为原理的哲学观念是西方哲学的特征,中国哲学强调的是源头,而没有西方哲学那种原理的观念。虽然原理哲学在历史上功不可没,但在当代却遭遇到挑战,我们应该注意回到源头意识,并在生存状态的源头实现会通中西哲学的可能性。     

从文化编码理论看“经”与“纬”的传统文化阐释

文化N级编码理论强调了实物材料的重要性,并将文化理解为一种生成性的叠加过程,这为传统文化的探究提供了重要启示。由于汉字显著的图画象形特质,在揭示传统文化和思维方面有着拼音文字所不具备的优势,从汉字入手,可以体察文化原初的意义,破解后代象征符号的文化基因。本文结合文化N级编码论对“经”与“纬”二字进行了文化阐释,“经”“纬”本是指织布机上的“纵线”和“横线”,但在历史演变过程中,二者被赋予了截然不同的文化含义,“纬”的义项在引申的深度和广度方面都大不如“经”,“经书”和“纬书”的历史地位也有很大差异。本文试图揭示这种文化差异产生的深层原因。     

The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Presence of Immunes in a Censored Sample

Models for populations with immune or cured individuals but with others subject to failure are important in many areas, such as medical statistics and criminology. One method of analysis of data from such populations involves estimating an immune proportion 1 ? p and the parameter(s) of a failure distribution for those individuals subject to failure. We use the exponential distribution with parameter λ for the latter and a mixture of this distribution with a mass 1 ? p at infinity to model the complete data. This paper develops the asymptotic theory of a test for whether an immune proportion is indeed present in the population, i.e., for H ₀:p = 1. This involves testing at the boundary of the parameter space for p. We use a likelihood ratio test for H ₀. and prove that minus twice the logarithm of the likelihood ratio has as an asymptotic distribution, not the chi-square distribution, but a 50–50 mixture of a chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom, and a point mass at 0. The result is proved under an independent censoring assumption with very mild restrictions.     

Estimation in noncentral distributions

This paper investigates alternatives to MIU estimators in noncentral X ² and F distributions. Two directions are pursued. In the first, a general approach for uniformly improving on MVU estimators is described and illustrated. In the second, Bayesian, procedures are characterized and illustrated as well. This effort extends earlier work of Perlman and Rasmussen and of Neff and Strawderman.     

敦煌写本《古贤集》典出《史记》考

《古贤集》现存九个抄本,是敦煌遗书中一部重要的民间文学作品,也是唐五代民间流行的有关历史知识的蒙书之一。该作品的特点是大量运用典故,其中疑似出自《史记》者约15处。本文对这15处典故作了考论,求证了其实际情况。