Negative dependence in frailty models

This note investigates the negative dependence in frailty models. First, we show that the frailty variable and the overall population variable are negatively likelihood ratio dependent and derive an upper bound for the survival function of the population with higher frailty. Secondly, we prove that the DFR property and the logconvex hazard rate of the baseline variable imply the DLR property of the population variable. Finally, we further prove that the likelihood ratio order, hazard rate order and reversed hazard rate order between two frailty variables imply the likelihood ratio order, reversed hazard rate order, and hazard rate order between the corresponding overall population variables, respectively.     

On optimal tests for general interval-hypotheses

Optimal statistical tests, using the normality assumptions for general interval hypotheses including equivalence testing and testing for nonzero difference (or for non-unit) are presented. These tests are based on the decision theory for Polya Type distributions and are compared with usual confidence tests and with ’two one-sided tests’- procedures. A formal relationship between some optimal tests and the Anderson and Hauck procedure as well as a procedure recommended by Patel and Gupta is given. A new procedure for a generalisation of Student's test as well as for equivalence testing for thet-statistics is shown.     

基于序数信息的博弈理论

在许多社会或政治科学的问题中, 个人的主观偏好信息往往是通过定性分析得到的, 难 以表示成效用形式, 但却可以用序数形式来表示. 本文基于决策者对策略的偏好序数信息而不 是支付函数或效用水平, 讨论了一种新的博弈理论或模型, 给出了若干序均衡的概念, 并进行 了例示分析. 这种基于序数信息的博弈理论可以看作是现有基于支付函数博弈理论的推广和 补充.     

联合国老龄行动历程和主要经验

人口老龄化是人类社会经济发展的必然产物,是人类社会文明进步的象征。联合国采取了一系列行动,为推动世界老龄事业的发展做出了不可磨灭的贡献。     

《尔雅疏》古今字训例考辩

邢昺《尔雅疏》在疏解经文、郭注的过程中，注意运用“某某音义同”的训式，揭示各类语词之间的音义关系。这种训式中有一些揭示了古今字的音义关系，且在训诂条例上往往属于“连类广训”，这是对汉人“古声某、某同”、“某、某同”的改良和发展，也启迪后人对“音转义存”、“声义同源”、“异字同词”等现象作进一步的思考和研究。     

Simulation of a debtor country: The example of Colombia

A dynamic model, illustrated on Colombian data, simulates the functioning of an open economy under specified parametric conditions and selected policy scenarios. Unlike the usual two-sector models, the rate of growth of GDP is generated endogenously. Whereas related models perform sensitivity analysis for variations in parameters our procedure makes n possible to simulate policy alternatives under balance-of-payments pressure. The simulations explore the implications of policy options when debt services on inherited and new foreign indebtedness act as constraints on the debtor's growth, especially when new external borrowing is limited.     

冒险--怀特海的艺术旨趣

在怀特海的社会学观念中 ,文明包含了真、美、冒险、艺术与和平五种品质 ,而冒险占有非常突出、非常重要的地位。这五种品质是互相贯通、互相渗透的。艺术自然把其他四种品质作为构成因素 ,并且同样地 ,它把冒险作为在其中占有非常突出、非常重要的地位的构成因素。实际上 ,冒险是怀特海的艺术旨趣的核心。怀特海从文明发展的需要、形而上学的原则的角度论述了他的冒险艺术旨趣。研究怀特海的冒险艺术旨趣对发展中国的文化艺术 ,以至中国的文明 ,是有着重要的现实意义的     

Should job protection and income support for new parents be separated? Policy options in a US and New Zealand context

If income support for a period of parental leave is viewed as societal recognition of parents' lost income from employment in order to care for children, then there is some justification for linking eligibility for payment to a parent's eligibility for job protection. This argument is substantially undermined, however, when a significant number of parents, often through no fault of their own, find themselves in jobs that are not covered by job protection legislation. Drawing on the situations in New Zealand and the USA, it is argued that at a time when employers and governments are seeking greater labour market flexibility, linking payment to eligibility for job protection increases the potential for many workers to be excluded from qualifying for paid parental leave. From a public health perspective, the most effective health protection policies are those that achieve the widest coverage. From this vantage point, the ability to take a period of parental leave should not relate to an individual's labour market status. What matters is having sufficient income to cover the period of leave so that optimal health outcomes can be achieved. When society has a goal of achieving optimal health outcomes there is little logic in having income support determined by recent work history. Si se considera que el subsidio de baja por paternidad/maternidad es la recompensa por sueldos perdidos a causa de la necesidad de cuidar a los niños, entonces se puede sostener que se vincule el derecho de pago con el derecho de protección del empleo. Sin embargo, el argumento se hace más débil puesto que muchos padres están en empleos no protegidos bajo la ley. Considerando las situaciones de Nueva Zelanda y EEUU, se presenta el argumento que en este momento cuando empresarios y gobiernos buscan mas flexibilidad en el mercado de trabajo, el vincular pagos a la protección de puestos potencia el riesgo de que muchos trabajadores queden excluidos del derecho de baja pagada por paternidad/maternidad. Desde una perspectiva de la salud pública, las políticas más efectivas de la protección de la salud son los que cubren la máxima población. Desde este punto de vista, el poder tomar una baja por paternidad no debe relacionar con el estado de una persona en el mercado de trabajo. Lo que importa es tener ingresos suficientes durante el periodo de baja para lograr óptimos resultados para la salud. Cuando la sociedad tiene el objetivo de lograr óptimos resultados para la salud, no hay mucha lógica en determinar el subsidio de baja en relación con el ultimo historial laboral.     

Legislative history and evaluation

Legislative histories can be done with those evaluative studies which are based on programs which have a history in the legislature. ESEA Title I, Title IV, and the Title I Technical Assistance Centers are examples of programs which have their direct source in federal legislation. The evaluator could ask whether the intent (aims and objectives) of a program is the same as the intent of the legislation or could ask whether the outcomes of a program were the same as those intended by the legislature. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to the doing of legislative history in an evaluation study. The paper introduces the reader to five major sources for legislative history. The paper then discusses seven acceptable sources of information. Following this is a five-step guide to doing a legislative history.