The Effect of Mixing Events on the Dynamics of pH1N1 Outbreaks at Small Residential Colleges

Abstract

Objective: The authors examine the dynamics and the impact of all-campus events on pH1N1 spread at Bates College in fall 2009, with comparisons to 3 other campuses. Participants: Students (N = 285) presented or called in to the Bates Health Center with symptoms consistent with influenza-like illness. Methods: Health Center staff at Bates collected data on the outbreak; data from other colleges are from Web sites and journal articles. Data were analyzed using a mathematical model for influenza. Results: Bates held 2 vaccine clinics mid-outbreak. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the vaccine clinics may have altered routine student interactions, facilitating transmission of pH1N1 among students who otherwise might not have encountered each other. Conclusion: The vaccine clinics, held when vaccine became available, were too late to halt transmission. The disruptions to campus rhythms due to the vaccine clinics may instead have contributed to pH1N1 spread.     

生态语言视阈下“吧”族外来词的模因属性分析

"吧"族外来词是现代汉语的新生词汇,它们时尚新颖,生命力强。从模因论的视角来看,"吧"族外来词作为强势语言模因的简洁性、非常规性和劝说性等特点,促进了生态视阈下的语言多样性。从生态语言学的视角分析"吧"族外来词的模因属性,"吧"族外来词的适用范围不应超出它的生态范畴,应合理估计它们作为强势模因的力度,避免因滥用这些词汇而造成不良的语言生态效应。     

The limit distribution of a modified Shapiro–Wilk statistic for normality to Type II censored data

The Shapiro–Wilk statistic and modified statistics are widely used test statistics for normality. They are based on regression and correlation. The statistics for the complete data can be easily generalized to the censored data. In this paper, the distribution theory for the modified Shapiro–Wilk statistic is investigated when it is generalized to Type II right censored data. As a result, it is shown that the limit distribution of the statistic can be representable as the integral of a Brownian bridge. Also, the power comparison to the other procedure is performed.     

复配稳泡剂泡沫体系高盐增效性及粘弹性研究

对研制出的复配稳泡剂泡沫体系，在80℃下开展了高盐对泡沫体系的稳定性和表观粘度影响的研究，并应用扫描电镜观察不含盐、含盐度为7.08×104mg/L和20.30×104mg/L的泡沫的微观结构，试图找到高盐增效性的作用机理；运用HAAKE流变仪研究了高矿化度泡沫体系的粘弹性。实验结果显示：泡沫体系具有高盐增强泡沫体系的稳定性和表观粘度的效应，同时，该泡沫体系还存在一个最佳抗盐度；扫描电镜显示高浓度盐、聚合物和表面活性剂之间形成了高强度的复合膜，从而增加了泡沫的稳定性；泡沫体系具有很好的粘弹性。首次对泡沫体系的高盐增效性进行了研究，丰富了泡沫体系的理论，具有一定的应用价值。     

Efficient estimation for the proportional hazards model with competing risks and current status data

The proportional hazards model is the most commonly used model in regression analysis of failure time data and has been discussed by many authors under various situations (Kalbfleisch & Prentice, 2002. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, Wiley, New York). This paper considers the fitting of the model to current status data when there exist competing risks, which often occurs in, for example, medical studies. The maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are derived and their consistency and convergence rate are established. Also we show that the estimates of regression coefficients are efficient and have asymptotically normal distributions. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample properties of the estimates and an illustrative example is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

论现代汉语新兴结构“X帝”

"X帝"结构由词根"X"和名词性后置类词缀"帝"组成。文章分别从"X帝"中词根"X"的构成情况、"X帝"中"帝"的性质、该结构的语义特征、识解策略和"帝"类后缀的生成机制等角度进行综合分析,指出类后缀"帝"是对传统"帝"字含义的发展和创新。"X帝"结构格式简单、选择性强,具有较高的能产性。该结构目前正处在一个从临时构成的语法词向语义凝固的词汇词变化的过程中。"X帝"结构突显了一种主观性的语义表达,主观性和主观化是其生成机制。     

中国社区矫正制度传统元素分析

法律制度的构建不可能摆脱同历史传统的联系,社区矫正制度作为一项法律制度应该是民族历史传统的自然言说,因此要想深入研究社区矫正制度,必须对它过去的发展有一些基本的认识。现代意义的社区矫正制度尽管起源于西方国家,但社区矫正在中国并不是纯粹的舶来品。在中国的历史发展中存在诸多与社区矫正有关的传统元素,其中＂礼法结合＂与＂和合思想＂是中国社区矫正制度的文化基因,而罪犯习艺所、南京国民政府和红色革命根据地开放性行刑处遇则为中国当代社区矫正制度提供了实践基础。     

中国能源消费的组合预测

组合预测理论及建模技术对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性。鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征,可利用中国能源消费量的历史数据,分别采用指数回归模型、多元回归模型及灰色模型建立中国能源消费系统的单项预测模型。之后,可采用标准差法进行非负权重分配,建立中国能源消费量的组合预测模型。分析结果表明,组合预测模型的精度高于单项预测模型。进而可应用该模型对中国未来10年的能源消费量进行预测。     

中苏论战与马克思主义中国化“第二次结合”的中断

中苏论战期间马克思主义中国化进程中的"第二次结合",既是"第一次飞跃"的延伸,又是"第二次飞跃"的准备或酝酿。中苏论战的影响启动了马克思主义中国化进程中"第二次结合"的步伐,但在论战过程中独立自主原则被异化,论战使纠正"左"倾错误的努力成为枉然,论战也使对中国社会主义建设道路的探索走上歧途,中断了马克思主义中国化"第二次结合"的进程。     

Inference and prediction for the burr type x model based on records

Based on record values, the maximum likelihood, minimum variance unbiased and Bayes estimators of the one parameter of the Burr type X distribution are computed and compared. The Bayesian and non-Bayesian confidence intervals for this parameter are also presented. A Bayesian prediction interval for the sth future record is obtained in a closed form. Based on simulated record values, numerical computations and comparisons between the different estimators are given