Hajek定理的一种多维形式

文章对独立、同分布的线性秩统计量渐近正态分布的Hajck定理进行了推广,得到了k维秩线性统计量渐近正态性的结果。     

论城市的“内公外私”产权性质——兼论中外城市性质之比较

城市历来是作为独立系统同企业分开研究的,然而理论分析表明城市和企业具有共同的本质,都属于长期稳定多边契约组合的社会生产组织.城市和许多企业一样也属于"内公外私"产权,即对内公有或部分公有,对外具有私有性质,这就可以解释为什么城市之间有市场竞争,为什么可以经营城市和需要提高城市竞争力.中国初期市场经济同成熟市场经济的城市性质存在重要区别,即前者属于地方或城市政府主导型市场经济,而后者属于城市市民主导型市场经济.     

A world iron and steel economy model: A projection for 1980–1995

This article presents an aggregate global model that projects steel markets for the period 1980–1995, with particular attention to investment in production capacities. The model is developed as a linear complementarity programming problem. The model distinguishes between newly constructed steel mills and average mills to characterize price formation and quantity balances respectively. Various validation tests of the model are discussed.     

服务台可修的M／G／1／N排队系统分析

研究了服务台可修的Ｍ／Ｇ／１／Ｎ排队系统，其中服务台在系统的空闲期内仍可能失效，在平稳状态下，分析了队长的嵌入马尔柯夫链。应用补充变量法和样本点技术，导出了一般队长分布，获得顾客消失的概率和服务员忙期分布。     

Better approximate confidence intervals for a binomial parameter

This paper discusses five methods for constructing approximate confidence intervals for the binomial parameter Θ, based on Y successes in n Bernoulli trials. In a recent paper, Chen (1990) discusses various approximate methods and suggests a new method based on a Bayes argument, which we call method I here. Methods II and III are based on the normal approximation without and with continuity correction. Method IV uses the Poisson approximation of the binomial distribution and then exploits the fact that the exact confidence limits for the parameter of the Poisson distribution can be found through the x² distribution. The confidence limits of method IV are then provided by the Wilson-Hilferty approximation of the x². Similarly, the exact confidence limits for the binomial parameter can be expressed through the F distribution. Method V approximates these limits through a suitable version of the Wilson-Hilferty approximation. We undertake a comparison of the five methods in respect to coverage probability and expected length. The results indicate that method V has an advantage over Chen's Bayes method as well as over the other three methods.     

Ethical problems in program evaluation: Advice for trapped evaluators

This paper argues that ethical problems in program evaluation are increased when conflicting or incompatible evaluation models are applied concurrently. Three models are illustrated: an Amelioration Model, generating better information for a program's own decision makers; an Accountability Model, focusing on public data disclosure and citizen participation in evaluation; and an Advocacy Model, in which the evaluation is designed to advance the program's interests in the competition for resources. Ethical problems inherent in each model, and arising from combining models are presented, along with case examples and discussion. The authors suggest several directions that program evaluators can consider to reduce their vulnerability to ethical problems.     

Job-shift differences between men and women in the workplace

Until now causal analyses of male-female career differences have been based on the standard attainment model and have focused on differences in career outcomes, namely status and earnings. This paper departs from this practice by using the career life-cycle model of achievement as a framework for the analysis of sex differences in the job mobility experiences of management personnel of a large corporation. The paper focuses not on sexual differences in the level of career rewards, but on differences in the rate of job shifts as the career unfolds. The models are based on the mean-value function of a Poisson arrival process. The principal findings are: (1) Male and female job-shift regimes are similar in form and described by the mean-value function of a nonstationary and heterogeneous Poisson arrival process; (2) the parameters governing male and female job-shift regimes are significantly different; (3) parameter differences indicate sexual inequities with respect to the rate of return to productive resources, but not with respect to structural opportunities to shift; (4) for men and women alike, schooling increases the rate of job shift, while labor force experience prior to being hired and entry-level achievement decrease the rate of shift.     

Macroeconomic adjustment in Thailand: Demand management and supply conditions

Within the framework of a four-sector macroeconomic model for Thailand, comparative statics are used to assess alternative ways of macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal policy interventions, manipulations of the exchange rate, and productivity improvements are discussed. Their implications in terms of income generation, external deficit, and inflation are derived. It is shown that only productivity improvements have positive effects on all indicators. Fiscal interventions lead to an improvement in the external deficit, but at the cost of income generation. The outcome of a devaluation is largely dependent on the behavior of factor prices.     

Practical problems associated with programme evaluation in third world countries

Problems in conducting programme evaluation in third world countries can be divided into four interrelated categories: those associated with design, personnel, time, and budget. Some of the problems in each of these areas are considered and suggestions for dealing with them are presented.     

新疆尼勒克县穷科克一号墓地古代居民的食物结构分析

本文对新疆尼勒克县穷科克一号墓地出土人骨中C、N同位素的比值进行了测定,结果显示,该墓地古代居民的饮食结构中以肉食类为主,植物类食物中以C类植物为主。