关于中国基本养老保险空账问题的研究

经过多年的改革,我国逐步建立了“统账结合”基本养老保险制度。该制度既吸收了传统型的养老保险制度的优点,又借鉴了个人账户模式的长处；在强调保障的同时又兼顾效率。但是由于存在改革以前就已经退休的“老人”和改革前就已经参加工作的“中人”,他们的个人账户实际余额或者为零或者严重不足。但是仍然要给他们足额支付养老金。这使得养老金个人账户存在严重的“空账运转”问题。为此,应从个人缴费来入手探讨解决空帐问题办法。     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.     

从网络流行语看汉语修辞研究的新突破——以“X爆”族词为例

本文以"X爆"族词为例,将网络流行语同汉语的修辞、语法研究相结合,考察了网络流行语所反映出的语法、修辞现象,特别指出了这些现象很可能是受到不同语体间语法、修辞差异的影响,进而从网络流行语的角度说明汉语在修辞研究上的新突破。     

航空装备教学方法及任职教育模式的研究与实践

揭示航空装备的内在联系,确立以功能作为航空装备认知主线的教学思想。构建了功能主线教学法和"1+X"任职教育模式,提升了航空装备创新教育水平。     

Semiparametric median residual life model and inference

For randomly censored data, the authors propose a general class of semiparametric median residual life models. They incorporate covariates in a generalized linear form while leaving the baseline median residual life function completely unspecified. Despite the non‐identifiability of the survival function for a given median residual life function, a simple and natural procedure is proposed to estimate the regression parameters and the baseline median residual life function. The authors derive the asymptotic properties for the estimators, and demonstrate the numerical performance of the proposed method through simulation studies. The median residual life model can be easily generalized to model other quantiles, and the estimation method can also be applied to the mean residual life model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 665–679; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Four tests of fit for the beta-binomial distribution

Tests based on the Anderson–Darling statistic, a third moment statistic and the classical Pearson–Fisher X ² statistic, along with its third-order component, are considered. A small critical value and power study are given. Some examples illustrate important applications.     

负二项分布的推广

本文主要是在二项分布,多项分布,负二项分布的基础上,把负二项分布进一步推广,给出负N项分布的定义,推导出它的概率分布,并计算出其数学期望和方差.     

On the incidence–prevalence relation and length‐biased sampling

For many diseases, logistic constraints render large incidence studies difficult to carry out. This becomes a drawback, particularly when a new study is needed each time the incidence rate is investigated in a new population. By carrying out a prevalent cohort study with follow‐up it is possible to estimate the incidence rate if it is constant. The authors derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the overall incidence rate, λ, as well as age‐specific incidence rates, by exploiting the epidemiologic relationship, (prevalence odds) = (incidence rate) × (mean duration) (P/[1 ? P] = λ × µ). The authors establish the asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and provide approximate confidence intervals for the parameters. Moreover, the MLE of λ is asymptotically most efficient and is the natural estimator obtained by substituting the marginal maximum likelihood estimators for P and µ into P/[1 ? P] = λ × µ. Following‐up the subjects allows the authors to develop these widely applicable procedures. The authors apply their methods to data collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Ageing to estimate the incidence rate of dementia amongst elderly Canadians. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999     

经济增长与城乡收入差距演化——基于各省面板数据的实证分析

对中国经济高速增长过程中的城乡收入差距演化问题进行了研究。分析表明,改革开放以来我国城乡收入差距扩大具有全国普遍性,即东、中、西部地区都存在城乡收入差距扩大问题。同时,中国城乡收入差距演化经历了四个阶段,呈现“X”走势,即:1978～1985年城乡收入差距缩小;1986～1991年城乡收入差距扩大;1992～1998年城乡差距缩减;1999年至今城乡收入差距重新加强。而缩小城乡差距的关键是进行农村制度创新和避免形成新的工农业产品价格剪刀差。