Three models of OPEC leadership and policy in the aftermath of Iran

Collapse of the Shah's regime has transformed Iran's attitude regarding oil production policy. The nature of OPEC leadership is changing as well. Three models examine the nature of this leadership inside OPEC: (1) the conventional price leadership model, (2) a model emphasizing a concept of egalitarian leadership, and (3) a team model composed of coalitions. The three models establish the limits within which OPEC leadership is exercised. A composite model drawing upon all three sets of results suggests that Saudi Arabia shapes cartel policy not by itself, but through a dominant coalition of states. For most of the period 1969–1978 this coalition has been stable. Following the unsettling changes of 1973, cooptation of Iran into the dominant coalition in 1974 was an important step in achieving a new level of stability. But during the turbulence of regime transformation in Iran, the nature of the governing coalition appears to have changed. One consequence may be that in the future Saudi Arabia will yield more willingly to arguments heard within OPEC on behalf of upwards price pressure, especially in an atmosphere of growing political isolation and overall tight supply.     

Agricultural policies and development: A socioeconomic investigation applied to Sri Lanka

This paper explores the interrelationship between agricultural policies and development by means of a dynamically recursive, computable general equilibrium model applied to Sri Lanka. The agricultural policies investigated include elimination of the food subsidy, land reform, and technical change in agriculture. The goals considered are the levels and growth rates of GNP and employment, the distribution of income, and the real income level of the lowest income group. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the association between policies and goals and identifies the key economic mechanisms in this association.     

A class of tests for testing ‘new is better than used’

A class of tests is proposed for testing H₀ F?(x) = e^?λx, λ > 0, x≥0 vs. H₁ F?(x + y) ≤ F?(x)F?(y), x, y≥0, with strict inequality for some x, y ≥ 0 (F = new is better than used). Efficiency comparisons of some tests within the class are made and a new test is proposed on the basis of these comparisons. Consistency and the asymptotic normality of the class of tests is proved under fairly broad conditions on the underlying entities.     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

Alcohol abuse on a college campus: A needs assessment

This paper reports the results of a needs assessment study conducted by a university-based alcohol abuse prevention project. Data are presented on the drinking patterns and drinking problems of a random sample of 462 students. Results suggest that students are experiencing numerous difficulties in the physical, educational, legal and psychosocial areas due to their use of alcoholic beverages. Implications for prevention and intervention programming are discussed and the need for planning programs from a data-based perspective rather than a rational and intuitive approach is stressed.     

Are services to prevent foster care effective?

The prevention of foster care became an important issue for child welfare services during the 1970s. Two main types of prevention models have emerged: crisis intervention programs intended to prevent imminent placement and intensive service programs designed to avert those crisis situations that precipitate placement. A critical analysis of several project evaluations leads to the conclusion that neither model has been markedly successful. Low nominal project placement rates seem attributable to inability to predict placements and to client selection biases. From a strictly financial perspective, preventive services have been considerably more expensive than regular services, including temporary family foster care. Data from a new demonstration project in New Jersey illustrate various problems in providing and evaluating preventive services to families referred to protective service agencies. Implications of the findings for prevention programs and policies are discussed, and a new direction focused on truly early intervention with children and families is proposed.     

试说“惟一”

现代汉语中的"惟一"是一个区别词,其用法并不具有单一性,有典型用法和非典型用法.一般情况下,"惟一"与"-X"搭配使用,不合语法规范.     

文学想象与“文化共同体”——从《鲁迅〈故乡〉阅读史》一书谈起

《鲁迅〈故乡〉阅读史》一书,是藤井省三从事鲁迅研究二十年来的总结之作。本书从鲁迅的短篇小说《故乡》入手,以文学社会学方法透视现代中国知识群体的阅读情况,考察＂想象的共同体＂如何发挥民族国家建构的作用。其＂小题大做,旁敲侧击＂,力图呈现的可谓是＂文学的社会史＂。从《鲁迅〈故乡〉阅读史》的脉络转到村上春树的中国阅读史研究,藤井为自己的研究对象构筑了开阔的时空关系,看似天马行空的论述背后,其一以贯之的文化体认也蕴蓄其中。     

基于自相关理论的GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)联合预测

通过引入自相关分析，将GM（1，1）与GM（1，N）两者的优点有机结合，运用GM（1，1）预测模型所需的数据量，达到GM（1，N）预测模型所具有的预测精度，减少灰色模型的预测误差。