统筹城乡就业背景下劳动力就业实证分析 ———基于北京市延庆县650个劳动力的调查数据

统筹城乡就业、建立城乡一体化的人力资源市场,是当前政府的重要任务之一。基于北京市延庆县650个劳动力的调研数据,分析劳动力就业现状,诊断存在问题：劳动力文化素质低、技能差、年龄偏大,市场意识淡薄,过于依赖政府,对就业收入期望过高;就业结构不合理、空间狭窄,市场竞争激烈,社会化的技能培训体系及长效机制尚未完善;政府就业政策未真正落实,基层公共就业服务机构弱,信息服务不到位,培训覆盖面有限,就业指导缺失等。并提出对策建议。     

Electricity consumption prediction with functional linear regression using spline estimators

A functional linear regression model linking observations of a functional response variable with measurements of an explanatory functional variable is considered. This model serves to analyse a real data set describing electricity consumption in Sardinia. The interest lies in predicting either oncoming weekends’ or oncoming weekdays’ consumption, provided actual weekdays’ consumption is known. A B-spline estimator of the functional parameter is used. Selected computational issues are addressed as well.     

Density Estimation by Total Variation Penalized Likelihood Driven by the Sparsity ℓ1 Information Criterion

Abstract. We propose a non‐linear density estimator, which is locally adaptive, like wavelet estimators, and positive everywhere, without a log‐ or root‐transform. This estimator is based on maximizing a non‐parametric log‐likelihood function regularized by a total variation penalty. The smoothness is driven by a single penalty parameter, and to avoid cross‐validation, we derive an information criterion based on the idea of universal penalty. The penalized log‐likelihood maximization is reformulated as an ?₁‐penalized strictly convex programme whose unique solution is the density estimate. A Newton‐type method cannot be applied to calculate the estimate because the ?₁‐penalty is non‐differentiable. Instead, we use a dual block coordinate relaxation method that exploits the problem structure. By comparing with kernel, spline and taut string estimators on a Monte Carlo simulation, and by investigating the sensitivity to ties on two real data sets, we observe that the new estimator achieves good L ₁ and L ₂ risk for densities with sharp features, and behaves well with ties.     

缺失数据下ARMA(1, 1)模型的估计方法

近几十年以来,国际上在对"风险的处理和效益的优化"这两个现代金融学的中心议题的分析和处理过程中,金融时间序列的计量学模型及其相应的分析越来越起到非常重要的作用.对于线性时间序列模型如AR(p),MA(q),ARMA(p,q)等,已经为我们所熟知.具体到模型的参数估计在数据没有缺失时,也有很多经典的办法,如最小二乘法、极大似然法等.但是当数据在中间有缺失时,上述方法将无能为力.本文将详细讨论在数据有缺失时的ARMA(1,1)模型,即Zt=αZ_t-1+ε_t-βε_t-1的参数的估计方法.     

Computing the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type

This paper considers the computation of the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type, given that the level is not greater than a predefined threshold. This problem has been studied recently and a computational algorithm is proposed under the assumption that matrices representing downward jumps are nonsingular. We first show that this assumption can be eliminated in a general setting of Markov chains of level-dependent G/G/1-type. Next we develop a computational algorithm for the conditional stationary distribution in Markov chains of level-dependent M/G/1-type, by modifying the above-mentioned algorithm slightly. In principle, our algorithm is applicable to any Markov chain of level-dependent M/G/1-type, if the Markov chain is irreducible and positive-recurrent. Furthermore, as an input to the algorithm, we can set an error bound for the computed conditional distribution, which is a notable feature of our algorithm. Some numerical examples are also provided.     

HIV-1gp41NHR序列靶点专一性的荧光共振能转移测定

目的确定并利用荧光共振能转移法（FRET）对以HIV-lgp41N端七联重复序列（NHR）为靶点的融合抑制剂进行筛选和作用机制研究。方法FRET采用金属络合物多肽技术设计针对不同结合位点、结合强度可调、涵盖全部NHR序列的靶点和探针,对HIV融合抑制剂进行高通量筛选。由于HIV在进行膜融合时其gp41的N端NHR和C端CHR可形成稳定的六螺旋结构,因此,利用圆二色谱仪对FRET所使用的靶点／探针对的结合强度进行验证,确定对应的靶点／探针对可形成稳定的六螺旋结构;同时,借助细胞活性测试测定抑制荆的活性,验证FRET是否可用于筛选以HIV-1gp41NHR为靶点的抑制剂。结果与结论FRET中使用的靶点／探针均可形成螺旋度较高的六螺旋结构,其中Fe（Env2．0）,／CP2及Fe（Env5．0）,／CP5形成的01．螺旋度分别高达89．6％和84．7％。FRET所使用的靶点／探针对专一性强、结合作用强,可用于进行HIV一1融合抑制剂的筛选和机制研究。     

Efficacy and safety of orally disintegrating tamsulosin tablets in Taiwanese patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia

Objectives: Tamsulosin is an alpha-1 adrenoceptor antagonist applied in treating lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) suggestive of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). This study aimed to evaluate safety, efficacy and acceptance of newly formulated orally disintegrating tamsulosin tablets in Taiwanese patients with LUTS/BPH. Methods: This single center, non-comparative, observational study enrolled 45 male patients over age 50 years. All patients received 0.2?mg tamsulosin orally disintegrating tablets daily and were evaluated at weeks 0, 4, 8, 12 of the 12-week treatment period. Tamsulosin efficacy was evaluated by International Prostate Symptom Score (I-PSS) with 7 questions on urinary symptoms and one disease-specific quality-of-life question, with scores ranging from 0 (no symptoms) to 35 (highly symptomatic). Maximum flow rate (ml/s), voided volume (ml), flow time (s), and mean flow rate (ml/s) were measured. Danish prostatic symptom sexual function scale rated severity and associated concerns of erection quality, ejaculatory function and pain/discomfort were also assessed. Results: Patients’ mean ± SD age was 62.47?±?7.77 (range: 50–89) and mean ± SD I-PSS was 13.98?±?5.50. Statistically significant changes from baseline were found in post-test I-PSS and quality of life (both P < 0.001). Mean ± SD I-PSS decreased from 14.30?±?9.34 to 6.73?±?0.88 at patients’ final visit. Statistically significant increases in mean maximum flow rate and mean flow rate were found over 12-week study period (P < 0.05). No adverse events were reported. No significant differences were found in pulse, SBP/DBP or sexual function. Conclusion: Orally disintegrating tamsulosin tablets demonstrate acceptable safety and efficacy for acceptance and well tolerance by Taiwanese LUTS/BPH patients.     

甘肃省出生缺陷1：2配对病例对照研究

为了解甘肃省出生缺陷死亡率及易患因素,为“甘肃省出生缺陷干预工程”项目的实施提供可干预的核心因素。根据甘肃地理特点及经济状况,按随机分层整群抽样方法,抽取了4个县,共42个乡为调查点。结果显示四县市婴儿总死亡率15.8‰(98例),出生缺陷死亡率7.7‰。甘肃省出生缺陷前五位的致病因素依次为:母亲孕早期接触农药史;母亲孕前一月服药史;母亲孕期接触农药史;母亲孕早期感染史;既往流产史。     

我国农村居民消费需求收入弹性分析及趋势预测

调整收入分配结构、扩大内需成为我国政府当今和未来一段时间经济工作的重中之重。消费需求收入弹性是反映居民消费需求和收入关系的一项重要指标,对其现状及未来趋势的研究具有重要意义。运用ELES模型和GM(1,1)模型对我国农村居民消费需求收入弹性进行分析和预测。研究结果表明,当前该指标整体较高,但未来几年多数子类指标有下降趋势。     

邓恩铭在山东的思想发展过程

以邓恩铭在山东的思想发展为内容,从革命思想的准备与发展时期、接受和尝试马克思主义时期、积极实践马克思主义时期、革命思想成熟时期四个方面进行研究,以期得出一些有益的结论.