Reference priors for exponential families

Reference analysis, introduced by Bernardo (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 (1979) 113) and further developed by Berger and Bernardo (On the development of reference priors (with discussion). In: J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 4, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp. 35–60), has proved to be one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are typically difficult to obtain. In this paper we show how to find reference priors for a wide class of exponential family likelihoods.     

西方马克思主义学者的辩证法观探究--驳"马恩对立论"

西方马克思主义学者基本上都否认马克思主义哲学是由辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义构成的整体 ,把马克思主义哲学仅仅归结为历史辩证法 ,否认自然辩证法 ,制造恩格斯反对马克思的神话。为此 ,试图从揭示马克思对自然辩证法的真实态度入手 ,论述了马克思主义自然观与历史观的统一 ,以回击西方学者关于马克思否定自然辩证法的论调 ;同时 ,针对西方马克思主义对恩格斯自然辩证法的批评 ,展开反批评 ,阐述历史辩证法与自然辩证法的统一。     

《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》刊文统计与分析

对《西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2000～2002年的刊文数量、类别、引文量、篇均引文数、篇均作者数、合著率、基金论文率进行了统计与分析。统计结果显示,《西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2000～2002年分别刊文157篇、196篇和231篇,其中以动物科学类论文最多,2000～2002年的引文量分别为1594条、1960条和2610条,篇均引文数分别为10.15条、10.00条和11.30条;2000～2002年载文的篇均作者数分别为3.50人、3.75人、4.01人,合著率分别为94.90%、93.88%、94.37%;3年来的基金论文率分别为70.7%、74.5%、65.4%;2000和2001年的篇均引文率、篇均作者数和基金论文率均高于当年全国平均水平。     

评汪树东的《中国现代文学中的自然精神研究》

汪树东的学术专著《中国现代文学中的自然精神研究》,细致梳理了中国现代文学中的道家自然精神、酒神自然精神、女性自然精神以及后自然精神的发展脉络,显示了较强的理论体系建构特色,对现代文学深层价值迷误的揭示具有重要指导作用,也对中国现代文学做出了较为深入的价值追问。     

山西农村贫困人口收入现状及原因分析

目前我国正处于一个社会转型的关键时期,社会面貌发生着深刻而巨大的变化,同时社会中的各种矛盾也显现出来,并日益突出。农村贫困问题已经成为社会主义市场经济发展过程中急需解决的一个突出问题。对山西农村贫困人口收入现状及原因进行综合分析,以促进山西新农村的建设和经济的协调发展。     

自然权利与社会规则——诺齐克的自然状态理论研究

“自然状态”理论是诺齐克政治哲学的基础:个人在自然状态中所拥有的权利,即“以人为目的,而不仅仅以人为工具”,这是人的基本要求,以此形成市场原则和确立政府才会具有合法性。诺齐克禀持康德的道德直觉,但他将康德的“人(Humanity)”改写为“个人(Individual)”,使“消极自由主义”的个人至上原则(Libertarianism)走向极端。诺齐克的“自然状态”是意志自由的直觉假定、是人的自然权利、是一切社会规则的前提。     

计算轴盘系统临界转速的新方法

本文把随轴一起振动盘的惯性力看成是作用在轴上的外力，对有任意广盘的轴盘系统，采用Laplace变换导出了临界固有频率方程的解析式     

The Role of Insurance in Managing Natural Hazard Risks: Private Versus Social Decisions

We explore the interaction between individual and collective decisions concerning natural hazards. Collective actions such as building a dam change the risks faced by private individuals. We show that, with proper incentives, individual reactions to such changes in risk can serve to enhance risk management by utilizing individual's decisions to take account of their specialized knowledge about their risk preferences and losses. We demonstrate that the efficient response to construction of a dam may be private actions that lead to a fully anticipated increase in flood damage. In such instances, zoning that focuses on reducing flood damage may lead to less efficient use of the flood plain. More generally, even where incentives for underinvestment in market insurance and self-insurance are present, constraining use of the flood plain by zoning will not generally lead to efficient outcomes. The model identifying conditions under which informed individuals have the incentives to make efficient decisions is powerful and directs attention toward more fruitful approaches.     

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Miami, Florida, USA.     

个体价值的艺术化张扬——对《荷塘月色》中朱自清先生“颇不宁静”的缘由探寻

<荷塘月色>作为公认的现代散文名篇,因为自身具备的张力,给解读文本带来了较大的空间.本文就争论较多的"颇不宁静"的问题,提出不止于政治、社会和伦理等范畴的"个体价值张扬、美人幻梦意识盲动"的观点.