旅游目的地社会经济承载力的经济学分析

旅游目的地可持续发展的核心是其旅游承载力。社会经济承载力则是构成旅游承载力的重要因素。社会经济承载力决定了目的地在有关各方利益得到基本满足的前提下所能够接待外来游客的最大数量。本文运用经济学理论和数学模型,模拟了构成社会经济承载力的各要素之间达到均衡的过程。     

勾股数组生成矩阵的发现探究

对文献 [1]中给出的勾股数组生成矩阵的发现作了探索性研究。     

决定论的含义与真假问题

古代已有因果决定论和神灵决定论,近代学者又以力学规律充实因果决定论而使之发展成严格定量的形式。从中可以看到决定论的基本含义:过去未来的一切皆有定数;其之形成根据则是因果关系和客观规律的普遍存在。但自由意志论却长期支持着非决定论的存在;现代科学又在微观过程和复杂系统中揭示出了许多新的不确定性现象,致使一些论者提出各种折衷性的弱决定论观点。然而我们通过对于各种新不确定性现象的实质分析表明,它们都不真是"本质上的偶然性",并不否定决定论的严格存在;而且人也并没有超越神经生理活动的自由意志。真正使决定论不能成立的乃是世界的无限性:无限世界是不能完成综合的,故而不是一个可总括的整体或系统,因果规律对其不能适用;同时,无限世界中的有限系统和事物也因会有无限的外来影响因素而不能有决定论的未来定数。     

论浙江籍状元的时空分布特征

历史上浙江籍状元在时间上的分布呈现逐渐增多的趋势,在空间上的分布呈现向少数地区集中的特点.这一分布特征同中国经济重心的南移、区域经济发展的不平衡及教育文化水平等具有紧密的联系     

中国育龄妇女孩次递进比分析

通过孩次递进比计算方法的比较选择,本文运用第五次全国人口普查1%.抽样数据分别计算中国2000年育龄妇女的各年龄别孩次递进比、城乡孩次递进比、区域孩次递进比,揭示中国育龄妇女生育水平的分布状况.     

自然人群的规模及其形成的一些属性 ———来自皖南山区村落人际关系的社会网络分析

人群的"量化"的元素和形式化的特征是社会研究的重点,这些问题在中国农村发展的实践领域如农民组织建设过程中却常被忽略了.文章以社会网络分析方法对自然村落中自然人群的规模和其一些基本构成属性进行研究,发现地缘、情趣、性别和年龄等基本属性在很大程度上影响个体交往的对象和规模,这些特征也是农村发展的干预过程中应该注意到的重要社会特征.     

Modified tables for the selection of double sampling attribute plan indexed by aql and lql

This paper presents modified tables for the selection of double sampling plans for given Acceptable Qualtiy Level (AQL), producer’s risk (α) Limiting Quality Level (LQL), and consumer’s risk (ß) giving the minimum sum of Average Sample Numbers (ASN) at AQL and LQL under the conditions of the Poisson model for the Operating Characteristic (OC) curve.     

Nonparametrics: The Early Years—Impressions and Recollections

In 1942 Wolfowitz introduced the term nonparametric into the statistical literature to call attention to the need for extending then-existing statistical theory beyond the customary parametric framework. Subsequently, statistical methods that did not depend on a strictly parametric setup became known as nonparametric methods. This article surveys developments in nonparametrics roughly up to 1960. The suggestion is made that statistics might be better served by eliminating the term nonparametric altogether from the statistical vocabulary.     

DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS

This paper introduces nonlinear dynamic factor models for various applications related to risk analysis. Traditional factor models represent the dynamics of processes driven by movements of latent variables, called the factors. Our approach extends this setup by introducing factors defined as random dynamic parameters and stochastic autocorrelated simulators. This class of factor models can represent processes with time varying conditional mean, variance, skewness and excess kurtosis. Applications discussed in the paper include dynamic risk analysis, such as risk in price variations (models with stochastic mean and volatility), extreme risks (models with stochastic tails), risk on asset liquidity (stochastic volatility duration models), and moral hazard in insurance analysis.

We propose estimation procedures for models with the marginal density of the series and factor dynamics parameterized by distinct subsets of parameters. Such a partitioning of the parameter vector found in many applications allows to simplify considerably statistical inference. We develop a two- stage Maximum Likelihood method, called the Finite Memory Maximum Likelihood, which is easy to implement in the presence of multiple factors. We also discuss simulation based estimation, testing, prediction and filtering.     

家庭资本对农村中青年居民养老策略的影响

借鉴可持续生计框架,采用多项logit模型,分析计划生育政策背景下农村中青年居民的家庭资本对其养老策略的影响。研究结果发现,家庭资本对农村居民的养老策略具有显著影响。子女数越少和家庭储蓄越多,农村中青年居民越倾向于选择依靠自己的储蓄来养老;反之,越倾向于选择依靠子女的资助或农村社会养老保险。而家庭资本对子女的资助和农村社会养老保险之间的策略选择并无显著影响。