Explaining and Forecasting Online Auction Prices and Their Dynamics Using Functional Data Analysis

Online auctions have become increasingly popular in recent years, and as a consequence there is a growing body of empirical research on this topic. Most of that research treats data from online auctions as cross-sectional, and consequently ignores the changing dynamics that occur during an auction. In this article we take a different look at online auctions and propose to study an auction's price evolution and associated price dynamics. Specifically, we develop a dynamic forecasting system to predict the price of an ongoing auction. By dynamic, we mean that the model can predict the price of an auction “in progress” and can update its prediction based on newly arriving information. Forecasting price in online auctions is challenging because traditional forecasting methods cannot adequately account for two features of online auction data: (1) the unequal spacing of bids and (2) the changing dynamics of price and bidding throughout the auction. Our dynamic forecasting model accounts for these special features by using modern functional data analysis techniques. Specifically, we estimate an auction's price velocity and acceleration and use these dynamics, together with other auction-related information, to develop a dynamic functional forecasting model. We also use the functional context to systematically describe the empirical regularities of auction dynamics. We apply our method to a novel set of Harry Potter and Microsoft Xbox data and show that our forecasting model outperforms traditional methods.     

Selective responsiveness: Online public demands and government responsiveness in authoritarian China

The widespread use of information and communication technology (ICT) has reshaped the public sphere in the digital era, making online forums a new channel for political participation. Using big data analytics of full records of citizen-government interactions from 2008 to early 2014 on a nationwide political forum, we find that authoritarian China is considerably responsive to citizens' demands with a rapid growth of response rate; however, government responsiveness is highly selective, conditioning on actors' social identities and the policy domains of their online demands. Results from logistic and duration models suggest that requests which made by local citizens, expressed collectively, focused on the single task issue, and are closely related to economic growth are more likely to be responded to. These strategies adopted by Chinese provincial leaders reveal the scope and selectivity of authoritarian responsiveness.     

思政课网络课程教学方法研究简

思政课网络课程的教学方法是利用网络技术开展思政课网络教学活动的设计与管理方法。思政课Moodle网络教学平台中主要运用的教学方法有论坛讨论法、经典导读法、视频教学法。论坛讨论法可以在交流中对学生进行思想引导。经典导读法使学生全面深入地阅读经典和理解经典。视频教学法可以创设一定情景,引发学生的思考。网络教学方法的交互性可以提升思政课的教学效果。     

基于职业能力的网络营销课程教学研究

网络营销是电子商务专业的核心课程.从职业角度看,网络营销是电子商务行业的重要岗位之一.网络营销是与教学内容和职业能力紧密相关的一门课程.在教学过程中,教师应根据网络营销的岗位要求完善授课内容和教学方法.网络营销课程应通过教学理念的创新、校企合作的深化、任课教师专业能力的提升、实践环节的加强、网络学习环境的构建、把握考核...     

Challenging the Roles of “Skilled” Professionals and “Risky” Young Mothers: Peer Support,Expertise, and Relational Patterns in Facebook Groups

Today, many countries spend a great deal of money and effort on programs for expert-guided parenting support to be carried out in face-to-face groups. One goal of such support is to target, help, and educate “risky” groups of parents, such as young parents. It is striking, however, that young parents have a conspicuously low degree of participation in this type of parenting support. Drawing on the assumption that many young parents go online to seek, give, and receive peer parenting support, this paper presents a case study of activities within three Facebook groups. Using a combination of social network analysis, online ethnography, and interviews, we analyze how social network relationships and discussions differ depending on whether the analyzed Facebook group in question is administrated by professionals or peers, what the role of professional experts is, and how young parents might use social media to take control of their own support needs. Our results indicate that some of the affordances provided by Facebook might contribute to a challenging of the roles of “skilled” professionals versus “risky” young parents.