Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization

We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible.     

Health Risks of Energy Systems

Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.     

Translating the Politics of Food Sovereignty: Digging into Contradictions,Uncovering New Dimensions

Abstract

Food sovereignty, as a movement and a set of ideas, is coming of age. Rooted in resistance to free trade and the globalizing force of neoliberalism, the concept has inspired collective action across the world. We examine what has changed since food sovereignty first emerged on the international scene and reflect on insight from new terrain where the movement has expanded. We argue that to advance the theory and practice of food sovereignty, new frameworks and analytical methods are needed to move beyond binaries—between urban and rural, gender equality and the family farm, trade and localism, and autonomy and engagement with the state. A research agenda in food sovereignty must not shy away from the rising contradictions in and challenges to the movement. The places of seeming contradiction may in fact be where the greatest insights are to be found. We suggest that by taking a relational perspective, scholars can begin to draw insight into the challenges and sticking points of food sovereignty by training their lens on shifts in the global food regime, on the efforts to construct sovereignty at multiple scales, and on the points of translation where food sovereignty is articulated through historical memory, identity, and everyday life.     

Minority government and marginal members: new issues for political and policy legitimacy in Australia

A steady decline in major party support in Commonwealth nations has resulted in changing parliamentary compositions, including the growing prevalence of minority government. Such situations pose new questions for notions of government legitimacy within Westminster systems. For instance, is negotiation with cross-benchers an example of government illegitimacy? What is the legitimate role of non-ministerial members when the composition of parliament gives them the final say on the enabling legislation for public policy? What is the legitimate response of the public sector regarding policy-making in the context of minority government? In this paper, we reflect on how a ‘marginal member’ concept can provide new insights into such issues and their implications.     

非财务信息披露、管控能力和企业业绩

以主板市场上市的非金融、非ST且具有控股子公司的企业集团作为研究样本,借助管理控制系统相关研究的概念和思想,基于样本公司2011-2013年公开披露的各种管理会计相关信息,利用包括监督式机器学习等大数据技术,对会计信息进行量化分析,结合现有的治理和内控指数构建方法的思想,编制出一套反映企业管控能力的指数,并利用公司的财务绩效相关性对其进行效度检验.实证结果发现,该指数不仅具有当期的财务业绩相关性,也具有未来业绩的相关性,比较好地反映了企业的管控能力.     

中国异地就医的困境与路径优化研究

医疗保险制度是构成中国社会保险制度的重要内容,关系到每个公民的切身利益。近年来,中国建立并逐步完善了城镇职工基本医疗保险、城镇居民基本医疗保险和新型农村合作医疗三大医疗保险制度,相对健全的医疗保障体系有效地缓解了看病难、看病贵的难题,切实减轻了患者的医疗费用负担,缓和了日趋紧张的医患矛盾,促进了社会的稳定与和谐。当前中国基本医疗保险制度实行属地化管理,而中国异地就医现象已经越来越普遍,异地就医产生的医疗费用逐年递增,患者异地就医需求与属地化管理政策之间存在一定的冲突,产生诸如异地就医报销难等问题。通过对中国异地就医政策现状进行分析与调查研究,我们发现,中国异地就医当前面临若干困境,异地就医费用报销难问题异常突出。在回顾与梳理2009年至今国家出台的相关政策及学者研究成果的基础上,借鉴欧盟异地就医的相关理论与实践,可对优化中国异地就医政策提出新的政策性思考。     

基于复杂网络理论的供应链网络研究综述

本文介绍了供应链网络具有复杂网络特征的认识发现过程、供应链网络的复杂网络属性及其具体内涵、基于复杂网络理论的供应链建模技术拓展和重构、基于复杂网络理论的供应链网络行为和现象专题研究、相关实践应用研究,并对未来研究方向提出了建议。     

Mean Time to Failure of Weighted k-out-of-n: G Systems

The purpose of this article is to develop a Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm for computing mean time to failure (MTTF) of weighted-k-out-of-n:G and linear consecutive-weighted-k-out-of-n:G systems. Our algorithm is based on the use of appropriately defined stochastic process which represents the total weight of the system at time t. These stochastic processes are explicitly defined and used along with the ordered component lifetimes to simulate MTTF of the systems with weighted components.     

云南农业信息化建设研究

当前,信息化已成为农业发展的驱动器、平台和重要工具;信息化的程度成为衡量农业现代化的标志之一。作者详细述评了云南农业信息化的发展成就、存在的问题及原因,在此基础上提出了加强云南农业信息化的若干对策建议。     

台湾的前途系于祖国统一

实现祖国完全统一,是大势所趋,按照"和平统一,一国两制"方针,解决台湾问题,是包括台湾人民在内的中国人的共同愿望.香港回归祖国3年来,政治稳定,经济繁荣,国际地位提高,生存空间拓宽.这对解决台湾问题,提供了良好的样版.