Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

The population statistics of China,A.D. 2–1953

Chinese population statistics are collated from the time of the Western Han Dynasty (A.D. 2) to 19 5 3, including statistics of population and households for provinces as well as for China as a whole. Evidence bearing on the definitions of the statistics, methods of compilation, and reliability of the figures as measures of population size and change, is summarized. An "emended series " of population totals for China proper, A.D. 2 to 1953 is presented, excluding figures which are clearly defective.     

HRD as design science

The aim of this study was to explore the evaluation practices of a sample of organizations in England and Wales who had signalled some commitment to training and evaluation by embarking on the UK's Investors in People (IiP) standard. A questionnaire survey was sent to 1,000 firms and usable responses were received from 394 organizations. It was found that formative and delayed evaluations were used less frequently than immediate and context (needs analysis) evaluations. In the majority of cases the responsibility for evaluation was that of managers and the most frequently used methods were informal feedback and questionnaires. Operational reasons for evaluating training were cited more frequently than strategic ones. Information derived from evaluations was used mostly for feedback to individuals and to inform the training process and less for return on investment decisions. There were some statistically significant effects of organizational size on evaluation practice. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for evaluation theory and research and HRD practice and policy.     

论审美惊奇的实现方式

审美惊奇的实现有多种方式，心理过程也比较复杂，但一般而言，审美惊奇有三种常见的实现方式：一见而惊；不惊奇→惊奇；惊奇→不惊奇→惊奇。论文只是通过对三种常见方式的分析，使我们得以窥见审美惊奇产生时一般的心理历程。     

广西三江县侗族中秋节习俗调查

三江县侗族的中秋节是家庭团聚的日子,也是村寨、宗族交往和民族交流的日子。鱼宴、秋社和斗牛活动有利于团结乡邻、加强宗亲和民族交往。由于年轻人外流,传统的大型的男女交往活动"月也"在中秋节期间日趋衰落。侗族人着力以旅游开发促进传统文化的保护与宣传,它对民族文化传承带来的影响,目前尚难作出全面评估。     

Growth curve analyses of the relationship between early maternal age and children’s mathematics and reading performance

Regarding the methods used to examine the early maternal age-child academic outcomes relationship, the extant literature has tended to examine change using statistical analyses that fail to appreciate that individuals vary in their rates of growth. Of the one study I have been able to find that employs a true growth model to estimate this relationship, the authors only controlled for characteristics of the maternal household after family formation; confounding background factors of mothers that might select them into early childbearing, a possible source of bias, were ignored. The authors’ findings nonetheless suggested an inverse relationship between early maternal age, i.e., a first birth between the ages of 13 and 17, and Canadian adolescents’ mean math performance at age 10. Early maternal age was not related to the linear slope of age. To elucidate whether the early maternal age-child academic outcomes association, treated in a growth context, is consistent with this finding, the present study built on it using US data and explored children’s mathematics and reading trajectories from age 5 on. Its unique contribution is that it further explicitly controlled for maternal background factors and employed a three-level growth model with repeated measures of children nested within their mothers. Though the strength of the relationship varied between mean initial academic performance and mean academic growth, results confirmed that early maternal age was negatively related to children’s mathematics and reading achievement, net of post-teen first birth child-specific and maternal household factors. Once maternal background factors were included, there was no statistically significant relationship between early maternal age and either children’s mean initial mathematics and reading scores or their mean mathematics and reading growth.     

国民革命时期唐生智治下湖南政教关系研究

国民革命时期,唐生智为顺应佛教界的革新潮流,在两湖发起“佛化运动”,成立佛化会等组织作为执行机关。一方面,唐生智保护佛教界的权益免受侵害;另一方面,他进行激烈的佛教革新,采用暴力方式强行统一庙产,引发僧界恐慌。同时,佛教社团仿照国民党进行组织,唐生智以此培植政治势力。“马日事变”后,佛化会员把持湖南省政务党务,造成政治纠纷。这一时期湖南地区的政教关系,反映出三民主义在意识形态领域的统摄力不足,以及中国在社会转型时期的政治混乱态势。     

新中国学前教育发展动力探析

新中国成立70年来,我国学前教育事业取得了举世瞩目的成就。这一成就的取得是中国特色社会主义政治、经济、教育因素共同驱动及国际化和本土化探索的结果。政治动力方面,坚持以人民为中心,幼有所育,把学前教育视为“重大民生工程”,不断推进学前教育普及普惠;经济动力方面,通过大力发展各种类型托幼机构以解放妇女劳动力并激发社会经济活力;教育动力方面在于使学前教育更好地为幼儿全面健康发展服务。为此,国家不断强化对学前教育的“教育管理”、加强师资队伍建设、推进课程改革、改善办园条件等。新中国学前教育在向外学习与立足国情有机统一的历史进程中,走出了一条中国特色的发展之路。     

大城市流动人口非居民化居住特征研究——以上海浦东新区为例

本文主要采用第五次人口普查数据,对上海浦东新区流动人口的居住状况进行分析和研究。研究表明流动人口在大城市具有明显的非居民化的居住特征,表现在居住场所集中于城市边缘,居住地更换频繁,居住质量差和居民身份认同感缺乏。为了保障流动人口在大城市的居住健康和大城市整体的健康发展,促进流动人口在城市的居住和谐,有必要采取措施,宏观调控城市的人口规模,适当建造流动人口公寓,制定流动人口的居住标准,增强流动人口的居民身份认同,增进本地人口与外来人口的居住融合。     

农村独生子女家庭养老风险分析

受独生子女及其家庭本身特征和农村社会经济现实状况的深刻影响,独生子女家庭客观上已经形成在养老上的固有风险。子女的唯一性弱化了养老风险的分散功能,子女的流动、生命存活风险以及因人格缺陷而产生的道德风险都会直接导致赡养风险的发生,老年父母自我养老能力的不足将使其晚年生活更加艰难。为规避和化解其养老风险,应该以政府责任体现为主,独生子女家庭提升自身养老能力为辅。