On a multiple endpoints testing problem

In a clinical trial comparing drug with placebo, where there are multiple primary endpoints, we consider testing problems where an efficacious drug effect can be claimed only if statistical significance is demonstrated at the nominal level for all endpoints. Under the assumption that the data are multivariate normal, the multiple endpoint-testing problem is formulated. The usual testing procedure involves testing each endpoint separately at the same significance level using two-sample t-tests, and claiming drug efficacy only if each t-statistic is significant. In this paper we investigate properties of this procedure. We show that it is identical to both an intersection union test and the likelihood ratio test. A simple expression for the p-value is given. The level and power function are studied; it is shown that the test may be conservative and that it is biased. Computable bounds for the power function are established.     

Considerations on group-wise identical designs for linear mixed models

We consider a general class of mixed models, where the individual parameter vector is composed of a linear function of the population parameter vector plus an individual random effects vector. The linear function can vary for the different individuals. We show that the search for optimal designs for the estimation of the population parameter vector can be restricted to the class of group-wise identical designs, i.e., for each of the groups defined by the different linear functions only one individual elementary design has to be optimized. A way to apply the result to non-linear mixed models is described.     

广义数学期望

本文应用 H.L.P.均值于样本,构造了广义样本均值;为了将它用于参数估计,根据替换法则(Substitution rule),推广了数学期望的定义,同时引入新的无偏性.最后应用广义数学期望的基本性质推出若干结论(定理1～4),说明在参数估计方面应用广义均值是有意义的.     

Some new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions

The concept of the univariate mean remaining life (m.r.l.) function is generalized to the multivariate case. The multivariate mean remaining life (m.m.r.l.) function is utilized to introduce four new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions (s.d.f.'s). Each of these classes is a new generalization of the univariate decreasing mean remaining life (DMRL) class of s.d.f.'s. The duals of these classes are introduced. Some properties, physical interpretation, and relationships among these classes are investigated. Also for each case, the class of s.d.f.'s common in a class and its dual is characterized.     

藏语白色颜色词的文化内涵

藏民族在审美心理中把“白色”视为洁净、诚挚、正直、高尚、忠诚、磊落品德的象征和寄托，体现了藏民族独特的思维方式和文化模式。     

Cost/effectiveness analysis of alcoholism and drug abuse treatment programs: the relevance of recidivism and resource absorption.

Cost/effectiveness measures are increasingly being applied to alcoholism and drug abuse treatment programs. Program evaluators usually regard readmissions as inadequate for assessing outcome, and resource absorption is rarely examined; this paper presents the argument that increased attention to recidivism and resource absorption is integral to the program evaluation process. Readmissions formed 53% of admissions to U.S. drug abuse programs, and in alcoholism treatment centers, 4% of the patients accounted for 24% of the detoxications. Problems with assessing cost/effectiveness are associated with duration of treatment, average cost, time span of analyses, quasi-experimental designs, multiple episodes of treatment, "silting up", and extrapolation. Five approaches to dealing with these problems are suggested: analyzing existing program data bases for recidivism and resource absorption, considering recidivism when evaluating programs, tempering clinical enthusiasm with skepticism, matching patients with levels of care appropriate to previous treatment history, and assessing additional benefit derived from increasing amounts of care per patient as part of cost/effectiveness analysis.     

Employee counseling services evaluation system: design, issues and conclusions

Employee Counseling Services (ECS) programs have emerged as an effective method for dealing with employees whose job performance has deteriorated due to personal problems such as alcoholism or drug abuse. It is estimated that 18% of any work force is effected by such problems at any given time and that these employees cost industry billions of dollars annually in lost productivity, abuse of sick leave, etc. One of the critical concerns of this emerging field is the need for comprehensive evaluation that can demonstrate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefits of ECS programs. This paper will describe the model Federal ECS developed at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as well as the components of the evaluation system designed to determine its effectiveness. The system is the first of its kind and will be a valuable contribution to the field. The paper then raises issues and develops conclusions about designing such an evaluation within the context of a large bureaucracy.     

A POLITICAL ECONOMY THEORY OF FISCAL POLICY AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment. The underlying economy is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and increases in public production. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. Policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts. With the available policies, it is possible for the government to completely eliminate unemployment in the long run. However, with political decision making, the economy always has unemployment. Unemployment is higher when the private sector experiences negative shocks. When these shocks occur, the government employs debt‐financed fiscal stimulus plans which involve both tax cuts and public production increases. When the private sector is healthy, the government contracts debt until it reaches a floor level. Unemployment levels are weakly increasing in the economy's debt level, strictly so when the private sector experiences negative shocks. Conditional on the level of workers employed, the mix of public and private output is distorted.     

H2O2／Fe^2＋光催化氧化法去除活性染料废水色度的研究

应用H2O2／Fe^2 光助催化氧化方法，对模拟活性染料废水和实际活性染料废水脱色作用进行研究，探讨了控制条件和影响因素。结果表明，该法对活性染料废水有很好的脱色效果，紫外光对脱色有催化作用。