严复与斯宾塞、赫胥黎之间的思想关系——一个主要基于伦理学的解读

关于严复与斯宾塞、赫胥黎的思想关系,存在着两种主要观点：一种观点认为,严复在几乎所有的主要问题上都接受了斯宾塞的理论,而另一种观点认为,严复的理论是对斯宾塞和赫胥黎以及中国传统哲学的糅合、折衷。从伦理学的角度对折衷论的论据考察发现,这些论据都难以成立,把严复珀!解为斯宾塞主义者比将其理解为折衷主义者更符合实际。     

Estimation methods for time‐dependent AUC models with survival data

The performance of clinical tests for disease screening is often evaluated using the area under the receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Recent developments have extended the traditional setting to the AUC with binary time‐varying failure status. Without considering covariates, our first theme is to propose a simple and easily computed nonparametric estimator for the time‐dependent AUC. Moreover, we use generalized linear models with time‐varying coefficients to characterize the time‐dependent AUC as a function of covariate values. The corresponding estimation procedures are proposed to estimate the parameter functions of interest. The derived limiting Gaussian processes and the estimated asymptotic variances enable us to construct the approximated confidence regions for the AUCs. The finite sample properties of our proposed estimators and inference procedures are examined through extensive simulations. An analysis of the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) 175 data is further presented to show the applicability of the proposed methods. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:8–26; 2010 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

布洛克:多重视角下的"艺术"概念

布洛克对传统的"艺术"概念从四个层面作了多角度的审视:艺术品是由人的特殊意图造成的;艺术品是对事物的非功利性审视的产物;"艺术惯例"与艺术创新并不矛盾;"艺术"概念具有开放性.布洛克的理论具有理论的包容性与整合力.     

直觉方法与民国学术

民国时期是中西古今交汇、渗透、融合、创新的学术盛世。在学术研究方法上 ,由西方传入的直觉方法与中国传统的直觉方法相衔接、融合而为学者们所关注 ,成为影响这一时期学术的主流方法。注重生命和意境的现代新儒家便是典型代表。他们在对西方非理性主义思想的认同和对“科学万能”的诘难中扬波而起 ,在方法论上强调对生命、生活的感受、体验和体悟。从梁漱溟、张君劢讲非理性的直觉 ,到贺麟讲超理性的直觉 ,再到牟宗三讲智的直觉 ,新儒家都表现出对中西直觉方法的批判、扬弃和融合创新的共同致思趋向。     

伽达默尔对海德格尔历史观的发展

本文概述并分析了海德格尔的历史观，在此基础上指出，伽达默尔的观点是从海德格尔的生存论本体论历史观出发的，但是，他没有完全因循海德格尔的观点，至少在三个方面，他发展了海德格尔的思想。首先，他把重心从此在筹划的未来性转到历史性上；其次，他把此在生存论筹划的单向作用变成了历史传统和解释者之间的相互作用；第三，他提出了“效果历史”原则，并应用到历史观研究中去。总之，他的发展反映了现代精神科学和现代历史哲学的发展趋势     

Sawu bona = Ich sehe dich

Sawu bona = I’m aware of you. Playback Theatre as a supporting method for consulting processesPlayback Theatre is an interactive improvisational theatre. People from the audience tell their stories, their thoughts and ideas and the actors perform them immediately, playing back a fresh image of the story for the teller. The processes in Playback Theatre and organisational consultancy are comparable: Similar stages include listening, respecting, giving back and integrating. The expression of feelings and the appropriate use of humour can greatly aid the facilitation of successful change across many different contexts.     

Contributions in heterogeneous communities: Evidence from Indonesia

Using household-level data from Indonesia, we investigate the importance of community characteristics: ethnic diversity and central government transfers, inter alia, in determining monetary and time contributions to community organizations. We present a framework in which ethnic diversity affects contributions through three channels: (1) diversity of preferences (2) transaction costs, and (3) inter-household considerations in the form of altruism towards ones ethnic group. Our empirical findings provide evidence that ethnic diversity has a negative and significant effect on contributions, and the prevalence of community organizations. We find evidence that government spending crowds out private monetary contributions, with a less robust effect on time contributions.All correspondence to Una Okonkwo Osili. The authors would like to thank RAND and Lembaga Demografi of the University of Indonesia for making the data available. We would also like to thank Victoria Beard and Chris Peterson at RAND for their assistance. We have also benefited greatly from discussions with Kathleen Beegle, Partha Deb, Kevin Hasker, Kay Ikranagara, Ifeanyi Osili, Richard Steinberg, Mark Wilhelm, and seminar participants at IUPUI, RAND, and LSU. Dan Du and Yang Wang provided valuable research assistance. Financial support from the Indiana University Center on Philanthropy is grateful acknowledged. Responsible editor: Daniel S. Hamermesh.     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Bayesian selection of log-linear models

A general methodology is presented for finding suitable Poisson log-linear models with applications to multiway contingency tables. Mixtures of multivariate normal distributions are used to model prior opinion when a subset of the regression vector is believed to be nonzero. This prior distribution is studied for two- and three-way contingency tables, in which the regression coefficients are interpretable in terms of odds ratios in the table. Efficient and accurate schemes are proposed for calculating the posterior model probabilities. The methods are illustrated for a large number of two-way simulated tables and for two three-way tables. These methods appear to be useful in selecting the best log-linear model and in estimating parameters of interest that reflect uncertainty in the true model.     

稀土元素对H68黄铜机械性能影响的细观分析

在H68黄铜合金材料中，加人稀土元素La、Ce．稀土元素具有细化晶粒、减小二次技晶间距的作用，并微量团溶于晶体内。同时，稀土与材料中的诸多元素形成大量的第二相．这些作用的综合效果使材料的屈服强度在一定的稀土加入量范围内上升，而延伸率明显下降．