分裂·寻求联系·超越--D.H.劳伦斯的诗歌解析

劳伦斯诗歌一个最明显的特征凸现作者自我实现过程的心灵的内部活动,他所有的诗歌创作都是其心路历程的记录.按照诗人心灵发展的脉络,劳伦斯诗作大体可划分为早期(1904-1919),中期(1920-1927),晚期(1928-1930).在这3个阶段中,诗人劳伦斯经历了"分裂--寻求联系--超越"3个实现自我的蜕变过程.     

A world iron and steel economy model: A projection for 1980–1995

This article presents an aggregate global model that projects steel markets for the period 1980–1995, with particular attention to investment in production capacities. The model is developed as a linear complementarity programming problem. The model distinguishes between newly constructed steel mills and average mills to characterize price formation and quantity balances respectively. Various validation tests of the model are discussed.     

Asymptotic distributions of functions of a sample covariance matrix under the elliptical distribution

This paper is concerned with asymptotic distributions of functions of a sample covariance matrix under the elliptical model. Simple but useful formulae for calculating asymptotic variances and covariances of the functions are derived. Also, an asymptotic expansion formula for the expectation of a function of a sample covariance matrix is derived; it is given up to the second-order term with respect to the inverse of the sample size. Two examples are given: one of calculating the asymptotic variances and covariances of the stepdown multiple correlation coefficients, and the other of obtaining the asymptotic expansion formula for the moments of sample generalized variance.     

Ethical problems in program evaluation: Advice for trapped evaluators

This paper argues that ethical problems in program evaluation are increased when conflicting or incompatible evaluation models are applied concurrently. Three models are illustrated: an Amelioration Model, generating better information for a program's own decision makers; an Accountability Model, focusing on public data disclosure and citizen participation in evaluation; and an Advocacy Model, in which the evaluation is designed to advance the program's interests in the competition for resources. Ethical problems inherent in each model, and arising from combining models are presented, along with case examples and discussion. The authors suggest several directions that program evaluators can consider to reduce their vulnerability to ethical problems.     

A critique of progress in adolescent smoking prevention

Researchers have developed a number of programs for preventing adolescent smoking. This critique evaluated a cross-section of 12 of these programs. The majority demonstrated short-term effectiveness in reducing the onset of smoking. The studies stressed three common themes: information about smoking's physiological and social effects, skills to cope with peer and advertising pressures, and the modification of attitudes. Despite many positive outcomes in reducing smoking, the studies did not clearly establish whether the interventions did so by imparting coping skills or by modifying attitudes. This leaves in doubt the exact processes that influence smoking behavior. Carbon monoxide and thiocyanate analyses have not been established as alternatives to self-report, as these methods prove unreliable with adolescent populations. Due to the lack of longitudinal studies, the long-term effectiveness of these interventions remains undetermined.     

Children's ideas about the bank and shop profit: Developmental stages and the influence of cognitive contrasts and conflict

Ninety-six Hong Kong boys, aged 6 to 13, were given a questionnaire dealing with the operation of the bank and shop transactions. The developmental progression in the understanding of the bank, though more complex in the Hong Kong sample, was essentially similar to that of a Scottish sample reported by Jahoda (1981). A full understanding of the bank emerged at age 10, while that of shop profit emerged at age 6, both showing a precocity over the Scottish sample. The study also considered the roles of cognitive differentiation and conflict, and experimentally tested for any new understanding that might result from the experience of cognitive contrasts and conflict. The experience was found to produce a significant improvement in the understanding of the bank among 10 to 13 year old boys, and of shop profit among 8 to 10 year old boys.     

Robustness of the linear discriminant function to nonnormality: Edgeworth series distribution

The effects of applying the normal classificatory rule to a nonnormal population are studied here. These are assessed through the distribution of the misclassification errors in the case of the Edgeworth type distribution. Both theoretical and empirical results are presented. An examination of the latter shows that the effects of this type of nonnormality are marginal. The probability of misclassification of an observation from ∏₁, using the appropriate LR rule, is always larger than one using the normal approximation (μ₁<μ₂). Converse condition holds for the misclassification of an observation from ∏₂. Overall error rates are not affected by the skewness factor to any great extent.     

The dangers of political naiveté and excessive complexity in evaluating delinquency prevention programs

The current demand for the assessment of programs designed to modify delinquent behavior may actually decrease the likelihood of achieving important long range goals. This article argues that the traditional experimental-control group procedures used in the evaluation of delinquency prevention programs are rarely successful, generate strains which have negative consequences, create hostility toward attempts to gain knowledge, and fail to create superior programs in the future. Furthermore, complex programs increase the likelihood of stress more than simple ones. If sophisticated research skills were directed toward the analysis of data gathered from larger numbers of cases and from more readily available data sources, many of these negative consequences could be minimized. The final theme is that the way in which findings are reported should be treated as an important factor in its own right. Objective, “hard-nosed” assessment may in fact damage promising projects without altering ineffective but entrenched programs.     

What's really new about policy modeling? An assessment on the basis of the U.S. federal government experience

This article is an attempt to look at where policy modeling is today in reality as opposed to where it is often perceived to be by those who are its proponents. To do this, an impressionistic survey is made of the state of the art, looking at such factors as model theory, structure, data, validation, and uses. Finally, some effort is made to take the results of this examination and use the conclusions reached to suggest what the future of policy modeling might be and what yet unexplored avenues remain to the model builders and users.     

Macroeconomic adjustment in Thailand: Demand management and supply conditions

Within the framework of a four-sector macroeconomic model for Thailand, comparative statics are used to assess alternative ways of macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal policy interventions, manipulations of the exchange rate, and productivity improvements are discussed. Their implications in terms of income generation, external deficit, and inflation are derived. It is shown that only productivity improvements have positive effects on all indicators. Fiscal interventions lead to an improvement in the external deficit, but at the cost of income generation. The outcome of a devaluation is largely dependent on the behavior of factor prices.