Minimax subset selection for the multinomial distribution

Let (X₁,…,X_k) be a multinomial vector with unknown cell probabilities (p₁,?,p_k). A subset of the cells is to be selected in a way so that the cell associated with the smallest cell probability is included in the selected subset with a preassigned probability, P¹. Suppose the loss is measured by the size of the selected subset, S. Using linear programming techniques, selection rules can be constructed which are minimax with respect to S in the class of rules which satisfy the P¹-condition. In some situations, the rule constructed by this method is the rule proposed by Nagel (1970). Similar techniques also work for selection in terms of the largest cell probability.     

试析福柯生命权力中的人口概念

福柯政治哲学视权力为一种历经复杂谱系,以真理为支撑条件的动态机制。生命权力是福柯关于西方现代权力机制分析的重要内容,就其诞生的谱系而言,它是权力机制由18世纪西方社会传统统治权模式向重农主义治理术转变的结果;而其真理性条件为:人口作为生物学存在的"自然性"。人口"自然性"作为一个具有实体性意义的可分析场域取代了以君主意志和利益为核心的统治权结构。以人口"自然性"治理人口成为生命权力的权力理性。自此权力得以深入干预人口活动,更得以以生物学模式处理人口整体中不同群体之间的矛盾。重新将人口问题置于对权力机制分析的理论框架中,避免由生物学思维模式产生的政治暴力,是福柯权力理论之于当代政治实践的理论价值所在。     

Simple Formulae for Evaluating the Potential Impact of Confounding Bias

Unmeasured confounding is a common problem in observational studies. This article presents simple formulae that can set the bounds of the confounding risk ratio under three standard populations of the exposed, unexposed, and total groups. The bounds are derived by considering the confounding risk ratio as a function of the prevalence of a covariate, and can be constructed using only information about either the exposure–confounder or the disease–confounder relationship. The formulae can be extended to the confounding odds ratio in case–control studies, and the confounding risk difference is discussed. The application of these formulae is demonstrated using an example in which estimation may suffer from bias due to population stratification. The formulae can help to provide a realistic picture of the potential impact of bias due to confounding.     

Admissibility of a variance estimator in finite population sampling under Warner's randomized response plan with multiple responses

ABSTRACT

Let P be the proportion of individuals in a finite population possessing a sensitive attribute. We consider the problem of unbiased estimation of (i) the variance of a linear unbiased estimator of P and (ii) the population variance P (1—P) for a given probability sampling design under Warner's (1965 Warner, S.L. (1965). Randomized response - A survey technique for eliminating evasive answer bias. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60:63–69.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) randomized response (RR) plan when independent responses are obtained from each sampled individual as many times as he/she is selected in the sample and prove the admissibility of a quadratic unbiased estimator for each.     

The two-sample t test versus satterthwaite's approximate f test

A comparison between the two-sample t test and Satterthwaite's approximate F test is made, assuming the choice between these two tests is based on a preliminary test on the variances. Exact formulas for the sizes and powers of the tests are derived. Sizes and powers are then calculated and compared for several situations.     

Testing a main effect in a three factor mixed model

In the present paper, the author has considered and compared the power of three test procedures, based on two preliminary tests of significance (PTS), for testing a main effect in a three factor factorial experiment. Davenport and Webster (1973) type test statistics are used in the final test. Recommendation for a suitable size of PTS has been made so that the power of a test procedure is adequately high.     

SIZE AND SHAPE AS LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF UNTRANSFORMED MEASUREMENTS

A numerical specification of ‘size’ and ‘shape’ is of interest for making interpretations in morphometrics. Starting from a, possibly large, set m ₁,…, m_r of size measurements, e.g. m ₁= height, m ₂= sitting height, etc., a preliminary analysis provides the set x ₁,…,x_p of size measurements to be used, e.g. x ₁= m ₁? m ₂= subischial leg length, x ₂= m ₂= sitting height, and x ₃= head circumference. In general these x_j are constructed as appropriately scaled linear combinations of the original measurements. A constant term should not be included because size measurements have to be 0 if all x_j are 0. Our theory requires a (compromise) vector μof means and a matrix Σof (co)variances. Size being specified as an optimalsize characteristic of the form c ′ x , the remaining morphological information is expressed by, at most, p? 1 components of shapeof the form d ′ x. Relations with Darroch-Mosimann [9] Darroch, J. N. and Mosimann, J. E. 1985. Canonical and Principal Components of Shape. Biometrika, 72: 241–252. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]are indicated. An application to human growth is made and other applications are suggested.

Don't read my book, think for yourself.

C. R. Rao, personal communications, 1981     

Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

Reduced-Variance Methods for Detectability Correction of Population Abundance

Detectability issues create uncertainty in field surveys of animal and plant populations. Detectability correction is one method employed to deal with this problem when there is reasonable certainty that detectability is roughly constant with time or in different areas. Two new reduced-variance estimators of detectability are introduced and evaluated for the case of using a detectability correction for new areas that are surveyed only once. The new estimates are unbiased or nearly unbiased and produce population estimates with smaller variance than the Lincoln–Petersen estimate.