台湾出生性别比的状况分析和对策研究

通过梳理有关台湾的人口资料,首先发现台湾出生性别比的发展呈现出总体偏高的趋势,其产生的原因是多种因素共同作用的结果。其次对台湾治理出生性别比偏高的直接和间接措施进行分析,直接措施是加大对非法性别鉴定的处罚,间接措施是消除不利文化的影响,营造促进妇女发展的社会环境。这些措施最终达到了＂标本兼治＂的目的。最后借鉴台湾治理出生性别比问题的经验和教训,为治理中国出生性别比偏高的问题提供相关对策。     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Designing two factor experiments for selecting interactions

This paper considers the problem of devising a single stage procedure for selecting the treatment combination associated with the largest interaction in a two-factor rfx× c experiment having independent normally distributed observations with common known variance. The intuitive procedure based on the best linear unbiased estimators of the population interactions is employed. Initially an indifference zone formulation is used; the problem of determining the least favorable configuration is reduced to a nonlinear programming problem with log concave objective function and a convex polytope as feasible region. A solution technique is introduced in the context of an illustrative example. The problem is also considered using a preferred population formulation; this approach requires a strengthened version of the indifference zone probability requirement. It is shown that the same sample size guarantees this requirement as does the earlier one.     

我国农村居民生育意愿转变分析

农村居民生育意愿真正开始转变是在全国推行计划生育以后,目前已发生了极大的转变,主要特征是:以期望生育两个孩子且一男一女为主流意识,还有相当比例自愿只生一个,"多子多福"观念基本没有市场,对孩子质量的追求正在替代对数量的追求。生育意愿转变的标准不应是生育政策,而应以符合可持续发展理念的要求为标准。     

如东县计划生育优质服务“三询”评估制

对改进计划生育目标管理责任制考核办法的必要性及建立计划生育优质服务以面询、电询、函询为主的"三询"评估制的必要性进行了论述,并结合如东县"三询"评估制的实践情况,对其科学性、可行性和可操作性进行了阐述,旨在为调整计划生育责任制考核机制,推动计划生育优质服务提供新的思路.     

Optimal estimation of a finite population mean under generalized random permutation models

Employing certain generalized random permutation models and a general class of linear estimators of a finite population mean, it is shown that many of the conventional estimators are “optimal” in the sense of minimum average mean square error. Simple proofs are provided by using a well-known theorem on UMV estimation. The results also cover certain simple response error situations.     

论基层人口与计划生育工作的改革创新

基层人口与计划生育工作管理方法和管理机制的改革创新势在必行。应以我国《人口与计划生育法》以及地方法规为指导,改革基层已不合时宜的管理办法,以政策管理代替计划管理,以基本的生育政策引导和规范人们的生育行为。努力探索建立与社会主义市场经济相适应的人口与计划生育管理机制,建立包括村(居)民自治与行政管理相结合为特征的管理体制,建立依法管理、政策推动、"费随事转"、项目带动、部门配合、综合治理为特点的工作机制,建立资源整合、资源共享、方便群众、优质服务为特征的技术服务阵地和利益导向与社会保障制度完善,领导重视、队伍健全、投入到位为特征的综合保障体系。     

南京市失业人口状况分析

根据"五普"南京市人口10%抽样调查数据,对南京市失业人口状况作了统计分析.分析结果表明,失业人口约占"非在业人口"的1/10略多,其中近2/3为"寻求再就业"人员.人口抽样失业率为6.08%,城区失业率较高,老城区人口失业问题更严重.15～25岁初次寻求就业和40～45岁寻求再就业的群体为两个"就业困难年龄段".女性群体在就业上处于明显弱势,其中25～45岁女性失业比例显著高于男性.但在初次寻找工作中,年轻男性碰到的困难大于年轻女性,而在失业后寻求再就业过程中,女性的困难远高于男性.     

流动人口子女及其教育：概念的辨析

“流动人口子女”这一概念近些年使用非常广泛 ,但它本身却是一个遭到误用、被窄化使用的概念。按照概念准确地说 ,流动人口子女不仅指流入城市的流动儿童 ,也应该包括留在乡村的“留守儿童”。因此 ,讨论“流动人口子女教育”的问题 ,也相应需要从这两个方面的一致之处着眼 ,以从整体和宏观的角度全面看待这个问题 ,把握问题的实质并更好地解决问题。     

苏南地区青少年教育的若干思考

基于对苏南部分地区的实地调查，讨论分析了该地区青少年人口结构、生活环境特点和存在问题，以及转型期社会现实中对青少年健康成长的不利影响因素，阐述了强化青少年正面教育的对策性思考