M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

我国中央财政扶贫资金的瞄准分析

中央财政扶贫资金的瞄准一直受到众多学者的关注,文章根据翔实的实地调研的数据和信息,对中央财政扶贫资金的重点县瞄准、贫困村瞄准和贫困群体瞄准情况进行了深入分析,发现目前我国中央财政扶贫资金流出重点县的比重超过了规定的70%;贫困村识别能够在一定程度上提高瞄准精度,但由于指标式的贫困村确定方法从制度上排挤了一些真正的贫困村进入瞄准范围;项目依托式的扶贫资金到达贫困农户手中的比重最低,信贷资金不能瞄准贫困群体的问题仍然十分突出.     

从体制区隔走向协同治理：兰考精准脱贫的实践与思考

2017年3月,经国务院扶贫开发领导小组评估及河南省政府批准,兰考县正式摘掉了贫困县的帽子,正式从脱贫攻坚阶段走向全面建成小康社会新阶段。兰考之问——“兰考是如何脱贫的”、“兰考经验是否可复制”,迫切需求答案。贫困治理属于国家治理的一个领域,其理念与手段深受国家治理理念转变的影响,同时也借鉴、改造与创新其他领域问题治理的探索实践。文章在回顾贫困治理理论与中国贫困治理实践的基础上,反思传统扶贫方式的缺陷与不足,梳理“十八大”以来的贫困治理新思路,总结提炼兰考精准脱贫样本的经验。兰考脱贫故事发生在中国整体性国家贫困治理理念与制度创新转型的时代背景下,找到了制约传统贫困治理方式存在问题的深层次因素,在政府部门关系与层级关系、多元主体协同共治方面有所突破,在贫困治理机制上有所创新,是国家治理、政府治理、社区治理等多元主体协同治理有机结合的产物。     

Making and Shaping Poor Malawians: Citizenship Below the Poverty Line

This article explores a series of events in the global discourse on development and governance: the emergence of ‘the poor’ as a class of identifiable individuals rather than an abstract category; the preference for targeted development interventions; the organisation of beneficiaries into groups which are then used as sites for application of ‘governmentality’; and the Millennium Development Goals, which have necessitated national and local poverty lines corresponding to the global poverty line. One implication is that those below the poverty line may constitute a particular type of citizens: more subject to attempts to reform their rationality and conduct, and less the autonomous individuals that are presupposed by liberal democracy.     

Poverty,social disadvantage,and the black/white placement gap

In this paper, we examine whether county-level measures of poverty and social disadvantage are correlated with county-level variation in the black/white foster care placement gap. The black/white placement gap refers to the fact that when the rate of placement into foster care for black children is compared to the rate for white children living in the same area, the black placement rate is almost always higher than the rate for whites. Although differential exposure to poverty is often used to explain why the placement gap is so large, the problem has rarely been studied. Using Poisson event count models, we find that poverty, measured at the county ecological level, is associated with a narrower gap rather than a wider gap. The counterintuitive finding is due to the fact that the relationship between poverty and placement rates depends on race.     

Is immigrant neighborhood inequality less pronounced in suburban areas?

We investigate suburbanization and neighborhood inequality among 14 immigrant groups using census tract data from the 2008–2012 American Community Survey. Immigrant neighborhood inequality is defined here as the degree to which immigrants reside in neighborhoods that are poorer than the neighborhoods in which native whites reside. Using city and suburb Gini coefficients which reflect the distributions of groups across neighborhoods with varying poverty rates, we find that the immigrant-white gap is attenuated in the suburbs. This finding applies to most of the nativity groups and remains after accounting for metropolitan context, the segregation of poverty, and group-specific segregation levels, poverty rates, and acculturation characteristics. Despite reduced neighborhood inequality in the suburbs, large group differences persist. A few immigrant groups achieve residential parity or better vis-à-vis suburban whites while others experience high levels of neighborhood inequality and receive marginal residential returns on suburban location.     

Contradictory Logics in Asset‐building Discourse: Habits,Identities and Discipline

Asset‐building as an anti‐poverty policy emphasizes helping the poor to save and accumulate wealth so as to promote future financial well‐being. This article focuses on how asset‐building discourse is practiced at the frontlines and its implications for how workers come to address issues of poverty. Drawing on qualitative data from a case study of a matched savings programme in the USA, the study finds that asset‐building discourse as enacted by workers is fundamentally contradictory: it promotes the idea that the poor can acquire financial literacy, but simultaneously works to discipline the poor to thoughtlessly save out of habit. More priority is placed on inculcating the habit of saving rather than teaching economically rational decision‐making. These findings indicate that asset‐building is consistent with a neo‐liberal outlook that focuses on disciplining the poor to be market compliant irrespective of whether their participation in market‐based activities effectively addresses the challenges of living in poverty.     

Collective Action and Property Rights for Poverty Reduction: A Review of Methods and Approaches

This article provides a review of literature on the relationship between poverty and the institutions of collective action and property rights, as outlined in the conceptual framework of Di Gregorio et al. (2008). Using the elements of the framework as a guide, it offers an overview of how researchers and practitioners identify and evaluate these concepts. The article emphasises the multidimensionality of poverty and the necessity of applying various approaches and tools to conceptualising and measuring it. In addition to highlighting the crucial role that institutions play in poverty reduction, it shows power relations and the political context to be of fundamental importance in poverty‐related studies.     

Care and protection in Scottish child welfare: evidence of double jeopardy?

Since the inception of the Scottish children's hearings system, an increasing concentration of child care and protection referrals has emerged. Data on 225 children referred on care and protection grounds are examined. Children faced a double jeopardy of personal adversity against a background of social and economic disadvantage. A smaller group of children were also victims of an offence by an adult. A significant proportion of children had multiple referrals suggesting a recycling of some children. Social adversity in the backgrounds of children has been found in other child welfare studies. The significance accorded to this by social work agencies and the links between neglect and poverty may be overlooked. The importance of policy that provides comprehensive public assistance and services, as found in other European countries, is an inescapable conclusion.     

社区式学校社会工作在INGO教育扶贫中的运用与挑战

为协调学校、家庭和社区的关系，为给贫困学童寻找更多的社区资源，创造更为优良的成长和发展环境，国际民间组织（INGO）在我国开展教育扶贫活动时灵活地运用了社区式学校社会工作的理念、原则、方法和技术，在贫困学童所在的社区范围内开展学生工作，协助社区建设、改善教育环境，强化社区居民与学校的联系，促进社区和学校之间的沟通。当然，因与当地政府、居民的本土扶贫理念、工作手法不一，因社区式学校社工自身的条件需求或制约因素等，INGO也面临着诸多困难与挑战。