企业信息化工程中的匹配理论及映射模型研究

通过对中国企业信息化工程现状的分析,指出先进的信息系统与企业管理基础之间存在较大的差距是项目成功率不高的主要原因,提出企业管理系统与信息系统匹配理论,详细阐述了匹配理论的内容和原则,围绕匹配度测算问题,建立了映射模型,定义了映射函数和映射法则。     

婚姻匹配结构与主观幸福感——来自中国大样本微观数据的实证研究

本文利用2006年中国综合社会调查（ CGSS ）数据,研究首次婚姻中,夫妻个人经济状况匹配和家庭经济状况匹配的不同组合与婚后生活幸福感之间的关系。本文发现,无论是男性还是女性,在控制了年龄、年龄的平方、受教育年限、民族、政治面貌、户口、宗教信仰、工作满意程度、个人健康满意程度、人际关系满意程度、住房状况、家庭经济状况、家庭关系满意程度以及省份哑变量等变量的情况下,相对于“门当户对”,家庭经济状况为“男低女高”婚配结构的生活会更幸福。在分组回归中,本文进一步发现,以“个人经济状况和家庭、经济状况同为门当户对”作为基准组,“个人经济状况为门当户对,且家庭经济状况为男低女高”的婚配结构会更幸福。如果家庭经济状况为“男低女高”是男女双方为了追求爱情而冲破传统“门第”观点的结果,那么,本文发现的引申含义是基于爱情的婚姻会更幸福。     

试论西周初期的“德”观念——以今文《周书》为中心的考察

周初之“德”是一个较为宽泛的观念,它可以分为以德配天、敬德保民、明德慎罚、任德尚贤四个重要组成部分,其价值与意义主要体现在政治领域,“德”是周人为论证政权的合法性及谋求政权的持久性而提出的。从内涵上来看,“德”字在周初尽管有了道德的意义,但“德”观念在人自身内在心灵的领域尚未达到深入的程度,“德”的外在意义在周初占有主导地位,它与后世具有普遍意义的个体心性道德还有一定的差距,并不等同于我们今天所说的“道德”。     

ON SOME OPTIMALITY PROPERTIES OF FISHER-RAO SCORE FUNCTION IN TESTING AND ESTIMATION

The score function is associated with some optimality features in statistical inference. This review article looks on the central role of the score in testing and estimation. The maximization of the power in testing and the quest for efficiency in estimation lead to score as a guiding principle. In hypothesis testing, the locally most powerful test statistic is the score test or a transformation of it. In estimation, the optimal estimating function is the score. The same link can be made in the case of nuisance parameters: the optimal test function should have maximum correlation with the score of the parameter of primary interest. We complement this result by showing that the same criterion should be satisfied in the estimation problem as well.     

The effects of job displacement on job quality: Findings from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study

This study examines the extent to which job displacement divides the career experiences for a cohort of workers. Previous studies of job displacement find nontrivial economic losses for displaced workers, but the effects of displacement on “non-economic” properties of jobs have been largely overlooked. Results using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study indicate that workers who were displaced have lower levels of occupational status, job authority, and employer-offered pension and health insurance than they would have had had they not been displaced. Difference-in-differences estimates, which control for temporally-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, are generally larger than cross-sectional estimates; still, there is a close correspondence of estimates across a range of methodological approaches attesting to the robustness of the estimates in the face of various technical assumptions and model specifications. Effects of displacement on job quality also exhibit conditioning by gender, education, occupation, and industry: while less educated, blue collar and manufacturing workers experience significant losses for employer-offered benefits, more educated, upper white collar and non-manufacturing workers experience significant losses for occupational status, job autonomy, and job authority.     

Marital disruption and economic well-being: a comparative analysis

Summary.  Though there is a considerable literature concerned with the economic consequences of marital breakdown, there is still substantial disagreement in terms of its magnitude. One of the major problems underlying this debate is how economic well-being is defined. We implement several measures of well-being of monetary and multidimensional nature by using data from the European Community Household Panel. Another issue in this literature concerns selection bias of divorcing couples. We tackle this issue by using a propensity score matching technique combined with a difference-in-differences estimator. Results confirm the importance of the definition of well-being. We find a strong gender bias when using monetary measures but a considerably lower bias, and for some countries non-existent, when using non-monetary indices.     

Third-grade retention and reading achievement in Texas: A nine year panel study

The academic performance of over 38,000 Texas students who failed the state’s 1994 reading test was examined through their sophomore year in high school. Propensity score matching resulted in strata with retained and promoted students of comparable observed characteristics. Reading scores were analyzed using a two-level hierarchical linear model. Same grade comparisons show that third graders failing the state-mandated reading test who repeated the grade consistently outperformed in later grades the socially promoted children who also failed the third grade test. Additional analyses indicate that alternative explanations for the findings such as omitted variables, regression to the mean, differential panel attrition and cohort effects are not supported. The results are consistent with findings from other recent studies which suggest that grade retention in third grade may help increase student achievement.     

Dynamic Copula-Based Markov Time Series

This article examines a test procedure for checking the constancy of serial dependence via copulas for Markov time series data. It also provides a copula-based modeling approach for the dynamic serial dependence. Various parametric families of copulas offering different dependent structures are investigated. A score test is proposed for checking the constancy of a copula parameter. The score test is constructed and its asymptotic null distribution established under a two-stage estimation procedure. The test does not require specification of the probability distribution for the copula parameter. To capture the dynamics of dependence structure over time, autoregressive moving average and exponential type models are proposed. Illustrations are given based on simulated data and historic coffee prices data.     

A Simple Approximate Procedure for Constructing Binomial and Poisson Tolerance Intervals

The problems of constructing tolerance intervals for the binomial and Poisson distributions are considered. Closed-form approximate equal-tailed tolerance intervals (that control percentages in both tails) are proposed for both distributions. Exact coverage probabilities and expected widths are evaluated for the proposed equal-tailed tolerance intervals and the existing intervals. Furthermore, an adjustment to the nominal confidence level is suggested so that an equal-tailed tolerance interval can be used as a tolerance interval which includes a specified proportion of the population, but does not necessarily control percentages in both tails. Comparison of such coverage-adjusted tolerance intervals with respect to coverage probabilities and expected widths indicates that the closed-form approximate tolerance intervals are comparable with others, and less conservative, with minimum coverage probabilities close to the nominal level in most cases. The approximate tolerance intervals are simple and easy to compute using a calculator, and they can be recommended for practical applications. The methods are illustrated using two practical examples.     

Detection of outliers in mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This article studies the outlier detection problem in mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive model. The formulae for testing outliers and their approximate distributions are derived under the mean-shift model and the variance-weight model, respectively. The simulation studies are conducted for examining the power and size of the test, as well as for the detection of outliers when a simulated data contains several outliers. A real data is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method, and modified models based on mean-shift and variance-weight models in which detected outliers are taken into account are suggested to deal with the outliers and confirm theconclusions.