Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests

Alternative boundaries for the common Recursive (or Standard) CUSUM test and the OLS-based CUSUM test for structural change are suggested and their properties are examined by simulation of expectedp values. The poor power of the tests for early and late structural changes can be improved for the OLS-based version, whereas this weakness of the Recursive CUSUM test cannot be overcome by the new boundaries. Research supported by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under grant SFB#010 (‘Adaptive Information Systems and Modeling in Economics and Management Science’).     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

后现代社会范式下教育产业化的哲学思考

在对教育产业化的多年的争论后 ,教育的产业化已经表现出了不以人的意志为转移的特征 ,如何以哲学的视角来审视教育产业化 ,成为当今学术界的重要论题     

从读者反应理论看朱生豪、梁实秋的莎译本中文化空缺词的翻译

读者接受理论为文学翻译提供了一个更为开放的视角,值得重视和借鉴。然而,如果全盘接受读者接受理论的观点,把文学翻译仅仅看作一种译者主体行为,势必会导致不准确的翻译。读者对于文化空缺词的接受能力是一个历史的动态变化过程。     

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

解读人与自然的和谐

人与自然和谐包含着丰富和深刻的内涵 ,从理论层面上看 ,它应是人与自然互相适应的辩证统一 ;从实践层面上讲 ,它应是人与自然双方均处于既被改造又应保护的关系之中。必须反对在这个问题上的各种片面的观点与看法     

Women's Changing Attitudes Toward Divorce, 1974–2002: Evidence for an Educational Crossover

This article examines trends in divorce attitudes of young adult women in the United States by educational attainment from 1974 to 2002. Women with 4‐year college degrees, who previously had the most permissive attitudes toward divorce, have become more restrictive in their attitudes toward divorce than high school graduates and women with some college education, whereas women with no high school diplomas have increasingly permissive attitudes toward divorce. We examine this educational crossover in divorce attitudes in the context of variables correlated with women's educational attainment, including family attitudes and religion, income and occupational prestige, and family structure. We conclude that the educational crossover in divorce attitudes is associated most strongly with work and family structure variables.     

乌鲁木齐县安宁渠镇社会经济变化调查报告

该文通过对乌鲁木齐县安宁渠镇的调查 ,揭示了城镇化进程中所发生的社会经济变化 ,以及这一变化所产生的后果 ;论述了加快安宁渠镇发展急需解决的问题 ,即社会意识整合问题、知识更新问题、基础设施建设问题、体制问题等。     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

生物学中的相异构想及转变探讨

研究表明，学生学习科学的过程是一种由前概念向科学概念转变的过程。学生头脑中形成的与科学概念不一致的相异构想是造成学生学习困难的重要原因。本文分析了学生在生物学学习中相异构想的成因及来源，并在此基础上提出了生物学教学中相异构想的转变模式及策略。