中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

傣族龙图腾文化刍议

“龙”是中华民族文化积淀的重要标志,中国人有龙的子孙之说。相关资料证明,“龙”与傣民族图腾之来由亦有密切联系,通过研究可以揭示出各民族宗教艺术融合中产生的多元化变异的现象。     

Higher education outcomes, graduate employment and university performance indicators

Summary.  Official employment-related performance indicators in UK higher education are based on the population of students responding to the 'First destination supplement' (FDS). This generates potentially biased performance indicators as this population of students is not necessarily representative of the full population of leavers from each institution. University leavers who do not obtain qualifications and those who do not respond to the FDS are not included within the official analysis. We compare an employment-related performance indicator based on those students who responded to the FDS with alternative approaches which address the potential non-random nature of this subgroup of university leavers.     

土地治权的变动与政权变迁

在传统农耕社会的制度框架中,土地不仅是一种经济学意义上的自然资源,更为重要的是作为一种政治活动的对象而存在。国家以政权的形式赋予土地所有权、土地经营方式以合法性的依据。土地治权与国家政权之间存在着一种内在的张力,土地治权作为国家意志在土地之中的凝结,其变动是对于社会利益的一种强制性的分割,与传统社会的政权变动有着内在性的相关。     

细胞因子对运动训练的反应

从细胞因子的产生、作用特点及其对运动训练刺激所产生的生物学反应等方面。阐述了细胞因子对运动训练的反应受许多因素的影响，这一过程及其机制十分复杂．随着研究的深入，许多发现势必促使人们对运动损伤及其康复、运动与健康促进等一系列问题产生新的研究兴趣．     

Optimal lot sizing under continuous price decrease

An important characteristic of high-tech industries is decreasing component prices over time. In the personal computer industry, some component prices decline at a rate of 1% per week. This paper develops an inventory model for products experiencing continuous decrease in unit price. We develop an accurate closed-form approximate solution to the model. Our results indicate that declining prices lead to substantial decrease in the optimal cycle time and much frequent ordering. This explains the heavy emphasis on just-in-time inventory management practiced by successful companies in high-tech industries. While previous models attributed the success of just-in-time policies to reduced holding cost and improved quality, under declining prices a substantial source of savings becomes lower costs of raw materials which is significant part of cost in these industries. We illustrate the results of the model with a numerical example and perform sensitivity analysis.     

A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

1 Introduction Shallow tundra lakes are one of the dominating landscape features in the Alaskan Arctic. They typically cover 20% of the total area of the North Slope of Alaska, and up to about 40% in the coastal plain [1,2]. Many lakes are, in their entirety or in part, shallower than the maximum annual ice thickness, consequently, some ice freezes completely to the lake bottom, nevertheless, large areas of water are deeper than the maximum ice thickness and the ice remains afloat througho…     

服饰时尚中的文化变迁：以牛仔服与唐装为例

牛仔服伴随着改革开放向西方学习的思潮而来,唐装则复兴于繁荣的新世纪之初,本文以“牛仔服”和“唐装”的流行为研究对象,通过探寻其流行原因,来揭示服饰时尚中的文化变迁,并由此展现当今时代多元文化———传统的和现代的、全球的和本土的并存交融的形貌。     

倪瓒逸民遗民心态变化论

本文从对逸民遗民的界定入手,研究了身处元末明初的倪瓒心态及思想的变化,从而廓清了倪瓒在元明易祚之际逸民遗民身份及心理变化。指出倪瓒的这一思想嬗变对于后来明清之际的一些遗民画家对倪瓒传承中的一种文化认同感来说,显得尤为重要。