中国教育资源市场化与个体选择：初中课外补习效应异质性探究

本文在中国教育资源市场化的背景下,探究了初中课外补习对学业成绩的效应异质性及其对教育公平的启示。通过分析“中国教育追踪调查”（CEPS）的数据发现,从同质性效应来看,参加课外补习对于提升初中生学习成绩没有显著影响,但参与课外补习的倾向性影响其效应异质性。课外补习有助于提高倾向性处于中间水平学生的学习成绩,表明课外补习受益学生大多来自学习成绩中等的普通工薪家庭。对于倾向性较低的大多数相对弱势的家庭和倾向性较高的少数优势家庭而言,课外补习对学业成绩的作用微乎其微。研究表明,中国教育领域的市场化变革和相关政策的制定需要考虑个体教育选择的复杂性及其对教育公平所造成的深刻影响。     

过度劳动及其就业挤出效应分析

本文将过度劳动界定为“人力资源在较长时期的过度使用”,即就业者在较长时期处于一种超出社会平均劳动时间和强度的就业状态。中国许多行业存在过度劳动现象,从业人员的过度劳动造成了很多就业机会被挤占,从而造成一些具有就业能力的人员的失业;而过度劳动并不影响所在行业的资本盈利与经济增长。资本盈利与经济增长所应带来的就业增长均被过度劳动所抵消,甚至在某些行业或领域还出现了就业负增长的情况。过度劳动的存在可以对中国经济增长与就业增长二者之间的“非一致性”做出部分解释。     

论巴西在第二次世界大战期间的作用

第二次世界大战期间,巴西加入到世界反法西斯阵营,源源不断地供应盟军战略物资,派兵作战,积极配合盟军的军事行动,从政治、经济和军事各方面贡献出自己的人力、物力和财力,为世界反法西斯战争取得最终胜利铺平了道路。     

媒介事件对电视广告创意的影响

从对媒介事件的重新界说以及媒介事件对受众心理状态的影响入手,通过对近期国内一些电视广告片的创意特点的分析,指出在媒介事件的影响下,电视广告的创意正呈现出一些趋向,如诉求路线的情感化、表现内容的公益化、运作方式的潜隐化等等。对于这些趋向的认识,有助于企业改变以往程式化的广告操作手段,获得更加积极有效的广告产出;有利于拓展电视广告创意者的思维空间,使电视广告创作更上一个台阶。     

听力显性教学"聚焦输入、强化互动"的有效性研究

以在读非英语专业本科生和硕士生为研究对象,进行大学英语听力显性教学“聚焦输入、强化互动”的有效性研究。实验数据和问卷调查结果表明:“聚焦输入、强化互动”的显性教学效果明显,多维隐性效应得到学习者充分肯定。该研究对听力教学的启示是:进行听力显性教学策略研究,听力显性教学与学习者隐性学习结合都很有必要。     

An Examination of the Effect of Continuous Quality Improvements on Optimal Pricing for Durable Goods*

This paper investigates the nature of optimal prices for a durable good in the presence of continuous quality improvements. The analysis of optimal prices is based on a nonlinear dynamic model of sales response that relates price, quality, average life of a product and the persistence of quality perceptions. Numerical solutions to the model are derived by employing the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. The results show that optimal price depends on the persistence of quality perceptions and the average life of a product (an aspect of quality). The analysis of optimal results affirms results based on other models and provides insights on the influence that quality has on optimal pricing. The implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

浅论图腾崇拜的特点及影响——兼论图腾崇拜向祖先崇拜的演变

图腾崇拜是人类历史上极为古老而奇特的文化现象之一。它是在原始社会母系氏族时期与氏族制度一起形成的,图腾是不同婚姻集团和氏族的标志。与其它原始宗教形式相比具有自己的特点,对原始社会的发展产生了重大的影响。最终随着生产力的发展、科学知识的普及以及人类的认识水平的提高,图腾崇拜逐渐走向消亡,并最终为祖先崇拜所取代。     

Gender differences in risk behavior and the link to household effects and individual wealth

This study examined the differences in risk behavior between men and women using a household survey that captured the risk preferences of two members in a household and recorded wealth at the individual level instead of the usual approach of representing wealth at the household level. After controlling for commonly used explanatory variables, such as gender, education, age, and wealth, household fixed effects explain about 15% of the variation in risk behavior. This highlights the magnitude of household effects in shaping one’s risk behavior. In general, females in the study area are more risk averse than males based on a risk game with real payout. The gender differences disappear when focusing on only the top land owners. However, even in those cases, females consider themselves more risk averse, supporting results from previous studies that link culture and societal norms to the gender differences in risk behavior.     

Alternative estimation methods for identifying contagion effects in dynamic social networks: A latent-space adjusted approach

Contagion effects, also known as peer effects or social influence process, have become more and more central to social science, especially with the availability of longitudinal social network data. However, contagion effects are usually difficult to identify, as they are often entangled with other factors, such as homophily in the selection process, the individual’s preference for the same social settings, etc. Methods currently available either do not solve these problems or require strong assumptions. Following Shalizi and Thomas (2011), I frame this difficulty as an omitted variable bias problem, and I propose several alternative estimation methods that have potentials to correctly identify contagion effects when there is an unobserved trait that co-determines the influence and the selection. The Monte-Carlo simulation results suggest that a latent-space adjusted estimator is especially promising. It outperforms other estimators that are traditionally used to deal with the unobserved variables, including a structural equation based estimator and an instrumental variable estimator.     

中国黄金期货市场价格发现功能研究

黄金期货在国内上市三年有余,其价格发现功能发挥如何?本文利用上市以来的972个黄金期货和黄金现货样本数据对黄金期货市场功能发挥情况进行了量化研究。分别采用了协整理论、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应函数进行分析。结果显示黄金期货市场已经渐渐发挥其价格发现功能,但并不十分显著,究其原因,与交易制度密切相关。