Statistical Issues in Weather Forecasting*

Research and operational applications in weather forecasting are reviewed, with emphasis on statistical issues. It is argued that the deterministic approach has dominated in weather forecasting, although weather forecasting is a probabilistic problem by nature. The reason has been the successful application of numerical weather prediction techniques over the 50 years since the introduction of computers. A gradual change towards utilization of more probabilistic methods has occurred over the last decade; in particular meteorological data assimilation, ensemble forecasting and post‐processing of model output have been influenced by ideas from statistics and control theory.     

The difference between wages and wage potentials: Earnings disadvantages of immigrants in Germany

Immigrants in Germany have poor earnings performance relative to natives. Claiming that human-capital endowments determine earnings potentials rather than actual earnings, a stochastic earnings frontier is estimated and used to seek systematic differences between natives and migrants for GSOEP data for the year 2000. While empirical results clearly support the frontier assumption, natives and immigrants are surprisingly about the same with respect to the frontier. Assuming a half-normal distribution of the wage gap, on average, both groups transform a modest 84% share of their potential income into market earnings. This implies wage inequality can be attributed to human-capital differentials alone. The human-capital endowments of immigrants are largely determined by the very low percentage who have college degrees, their slow assimilation and zero-return on imported experience. The paper also tries to explain individual wage gaps, which are significantly decreased in married subjects raising families, but increased in employees in small- or medium-sized relative to larger firms. However, these variables only make minor contributions to the variance.     

南诏大理时期的民族共同体与兼收并蓄的白族文化

南诏大理政权建立 5 0 0余年的历史与我国统一多民族国家的形成与发展有着重要的意义 ,针对学术界关于南诏王室族属的争论 ,笔者认为建立南诏与大理的民族是一个民族 ,即南诏———大理民族 ,这一原生形态的民族后来分化为白族与其他彝语支各民族 ,而白族文化继承了南诏大理时期兼收并蓄的特点 ,云南其他民族不同类型的物质文化与精神文化在白族文化中都有所体现。     

英语阅读的整体概念与写作中事例组织之间的认知辩证关系

本文作者从语言学习的认知同化过程的几点要素 ,就阅读中段落的整体概念和写作中事例的组织之间认知辨证关系展开了讨论。明确指出 :如果把握住了阅读和写作在形式上的共性特点 ,不但可以使教学产生事半功倍的效果 ,而且对教学双方的个体学习都会起着积极的促进作用。在本文中 ,作者首次向外语教学界提出了自己多年来在此领域中的研究成果     

中国社会发展对"跨越论"思想的深化和丰富

马克思、恩格斯探索东方社会发展道路时提出了"跨越论"设想,并在分析东方落后国家实现跨越的条件中提出了吸收资本主义一切积极成果的思想.中国社会发展在不同的历史时期不仅体现出了"跨越论"的"吸收"思想,而且在推进中国社会发展的实践中,毛泽东和邓小平极大地深化和丰富了吸收资本主义积极成果的思想.     

文学翻译中艺术意境的再创造——看杨必译《名利场》

《名利场》是 19世纪英国杰出的批判现实主义作家威廉·麦克皮斯·萨克雷 (william .Makepeace .Thacker ay)的代表作。已故译界前辈杨必女士留下的《名利场》中译本译文准确、地道 ,流畅地、创造性地再现了原文的艺术境界。杨女士主要是通过将句子结构化整为零单词分译 ,展词成句以“归化”为主要手段 ,巧妙运用汉语成语和四字格这三种手段来处理译文的     

新诗的象征情绪

新诗艺术上的成败,与象征手法的运用有很大关系.新诗在继承中国传统诗歌象征手法的同时,嫁接了西方象征手法,并同化了西方象征手法,使新诗在艺术上得到发展.如果没有象征的继承、嫁接与同化,新诗就不会有今天这样的生命力,但是二者的同化还不够完善,还有待诗人们继续努力.     

Labor Market Segmentation and the Earnings of German Guestworkers

In this paper we study the occupational progress and earnings attainment of immigrants in Germany and compare them to native Germans. Our analysis is guided by the human capital, segmented labor market, and discrimination theories. To assess the separate effects of occupational segmentation and discrimination in the allocation of occupations and wages, we conceptualize the process of earnings attainment as occurring in three stages: initial occupational achievement, final occupational achievement after the accumulation of experience, and, contingent on the former, final earnings attainment. Our analysis of data from the German Socioeconomic Panel suggests a high degree of initial occupational segmentation, with mmigrants being less able to translate their human capital into a good first job than natives. We also find that immigrants experienced significant discrimination in the process of occupational attainment, yielding little job mobility over time, and a widening of the status gap between Germans and guestworkers. Holding occupational status constant, however, we find less evidence of direct discrimination in the process of earnings attainment. Although immigrants achieved lower rates of return to technical or vocational training than natives, their wage returns to experience, hours worked, years since migration, and academic high school were greater, yielding significant earnings mobility over time.     

A demographic history of the Indo-Dutch population, 1930–2001

Indonesia was a Dutch colony until 1949. In the aftermath of World War II and the independence of the former Dutch East Indies, many people migrated from Indonesia to the Netherlands or other Western countries. This migrant population, known as the Indo-Dutch population, consists of Europeans, Asians, and persons of mixed European-Asian blood. These groups have all associated themselves with and experienced the colonial culture of the former Dutch Indies, and have carried this cultural experience elsewhere through migration. This paper provides a demographic history of the Indo-Dutch population, using a variety of data sources and methods. Starting from the population of ‘Europeans’ according to the 1930 census of the Dutch Indies, a demographic projection is made covering the period 1930–2001. By the beginning of 2001, the estimated number of Indo-Dutch persons is 582,000, including the second generation. Of these 582,000, an estimated 458,000 are living in the Netherlands and 124,000 elsewhere. The composition by age, sex and generation very clearly reflects the demographic history of the population.     

Intercultural policies and the contradictory views of teachers: the Roma in Catalonian schools

In this article, we examine the contradictions and lack of consistency between various levels of discourse relating to Roma educational policies. Policy-makers have claimed that political interventions would positively impact the progress of Roma. However, the results have been mixed. We argue here that teachers need to re-evaluate their roles as politically aware and culturally informed agents in order to guarantee social justice to a historically disadvantaged ethnic minority. Based on ethnographical fieldwork carried out over a two-year period with Spanish Roma children, both in schools and in their families, this study shows how intercultural policies have failed to impact the educational realities of Roma children.