重新重工业化不等于粗放增长和走旧型工业化道路——对吴敬琏研究员相关论述的质疑

霍夫曼定理是已被历史证明的工业化发展的客观规律。重工业并不必然是资源消耗型、环境污染型产业。重工业的发展并不必然是粗放增长、外廷扩大,也不就是坚持走已经过时的旧型工业化道路。中国重新重工业化绕不开,也跨不过。反对重新重工业化,只会延误中国工业化、城镇化、现代化的进程。中国现在还不可能以服务业为主导,而且发展重工业并不排斥服务业特别是生产性服务业的发展。从总体和长期来看,重新开始重工业化有利于就业问题的解决。中国的比较优势已经发生了变化,具备了发展重工业的资本条件。重新重工业化,主要不是政府调节的产物,而是市场调节的结果。现在如果不再次大力发展重工业,到2020年就不可能完成基本实现工业化和城市化的任务。     

哈俄关系发展趋势及对"一带一路"影响分析

哈萨克斯坦既是中亚地区发展速度最快的国家,也是唯一与俄罗斯接壤的中亚国家。苏联解体以后,两国不断开展各领域合作,并互为重要战略伙伴。哈萨克斯坦与俄罗斯同为我国重要邻国,与我国有漫长的边界线,是我国“一带一路”倡议的重要参与者。两国关系发展对我国在欧亚地区推进“一带一路”倡议具有十分重要的意义。从苏联解体后哈俄各领域合作取得的成果出发,结合最新形势分析影响两国关系发展的制约因素及对我国的影响,对我国正确研判当前欧亚地区国家间互动关系和“一带一路”建设面临的主要风险与挑战有现实意义和借鉴意义。     

French Friends,American Allies: Ethnic Dynamics in the Writing of Jack Kerouac

Abstract

The way the scroll text of Kerouac’s On the Road creatively manifests the writer’s unconscious concerns about his dichotomous hybrid French– Canadian–American heritage is analysed. The characters of Gabrielle Kerouac, Henri Cru and Neal Cassady are shown to operate metaphorically to symbolize Kerouac’s tumultuous relationship with the various elements of his genealogy. How the writer’s depiction of, and the protagonist’s allegiances with, these characters, who, respectively, represent French– Canadian maternity, European respectability and American unreliability, betray Kerouac’s covert attempts to reconcile his autobiographical feelings about the dualities implicit in his identity and mirror his efforts to navigate disparate cultural ideologies is examined.     

我国丝绸出口贸易的经济分析

我国丝绸出口贸易的 "显示"比较优势指数呈逐年下降的趋势,但其数值一直保持在17以上,说明我国的丝绸出口与其他出口商品相比仍具有很大的竞争优势;我国丝绸出口的相对价格弹性系数为-0.3825,属于低弹性的商品.降低丝绸出口价格,不但无益于丝绸出口量的增加,反而会引起出口创汇额的明显下降,引起丝绸"出口贫困"现象的产生.稳定我国丝绸出口价格,是我国蚕丝业和丝绸贸易稳定发展的正确选择.     

“玉石之路”的布局及其网络

1989年提出的"玉石之路"并非全国性的,而是实指从和田向东专运和田玉的"玉石之路",亦称"昆山玉路"。但在"和田玉路"形成之前,早在距今6000年时已出现了东北、东南等玉文化区的"玉石之路"及其相互间为了交流玉石而形成的玉石之路网络。"和田玉路"成为夏、商、周三代夷玉、越玉、鬼玉等玉石与中原及各地之间的交流途径。西汉武帝打通了通往西域的"丝绸之路",于是"玉石之路"便被人们遗忘了。宋代"玉石之路"又重新浮现上来,至20世纪后半叶方退出历史舞台。     

Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the predicted effect of changing 'summertime'

Previous studies of the apparent influence of daylight level and hour changes on the incidence of road casualties are reviewed and refined, by analysis of official databases for Great Britain (1969–1973 and 1985–1994) and the USA (1991–1995). New statistical methods, based on precisely computed altitudes of the sun for each accident location, are used to model casualty frequencies aggregated by week and hour of day, and locally evaluated associations between individual casualty incidence and solar altitude. Estimates of the altitude factor are interpreted causally to give counterfactual estimates of the effect of different clock time schedules on countrywide casualty numbers.     

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

应用EMME／2宏语言执行道路定价模型

香港的交通拥挤非常严重，而且好像并不能通过增加道路容量来解决，考虑到大多数拥挤地区空间的限制和增加道路容量所导致的潜在需求，交通规划人员和经济专家们为解决交通拥挤问题，已经把他们的注意力从交通供方面转移交通需求上。道路定价方法可构成交通需求管理战略的一部分，为交通拥挤问题提供了一个有效、公平、灵活的解决方案。香港特共政府已指定了一个咨询机构，来调查电子道路定价系统的需求，以及执行后的社会反应，为了     

1920年烟潍路工赈述论

我国北方五省1920年发生特大旱灾。灾情发生后,国内外救济机构和团体对救灾表现出了极大的热情,投入了大量的财力和物力实施救济。在有关方面的建议下,北京政府交通部利用所辖的路、电、邮、航四政附收赈款筹集资金,采用以工代赈方式修筑烟台至潍县公路。可工程开工后不久,由于交通部把持赈款,引发社会不满,遭到舆论抨击,不得不将所收的一半赈款用来办理急赈,这对工赈产生了直接的影响。烟潍路工赈在取得成绩时,也存在工程离灾区过远、赈济人数太少、拖欠工资和地价、管理不够完善等诸多问题。