The Tunnel at the End of the Light: the Crisis of Transition in Hungary

The economic, political and social transition processes of the last two decades, far from being in harmony, clearly have a detrimental rather than an enriching influence on each other. These processes will never become harmonised just by themselves in a natural fashion. The worst obstacle of a successful transformation is that the chief actors, such as the government, the market and the representatives of the society. The Prince, the Merchant and the Citizen do not show the necessary commitment, competence and determination to create a new, effective type of partnership. This is a challenge which urgently demands answers on all levels of governance, economic and social life. This must be done in the frames of local communities, and on the regional, the European and the global levels. Nearly twenty years after the political turnabout, Hungary now needs a new social contract and must lay down the ethical, political, institutional and intellectual foundations for its twenty-first century democracy.

A simulation study of the Bennett test and Miller test for coefficients of variation

In the article, properties of the Bennett test and Miller test are analyzed. Assuming that the sample size is the same for each sample and considering the null hypothesis that the coefficients of variation for k populations are equal against the hypothesis that k ? 1 coefficients of variation are the same but differ from the coefficient of variation for the kth population, the empirical significance level and the power of the test are studied. Moreover, the dependence of the test statistic and the power of the test on the ratio of coefficients of variation are considered. The analyses are performed on simulated data.     

Notes on testing carry-over effects in continuous data under an incomplete block crossover design

We consider hypothesis testing and estimation of carry-over effects in continuous data under an incomplete block crossover design when comparing two experimental treatments with a placebo. We develop procedures for testing differential carry-over effects based on the weighted-least-squares (WLS) method. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of these test procedures in a variety of situations. We use the data regarding the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) readings taken from a double-blind crossover trial comparing two different doses of formoterol with a placebo to illustrate the use of test procedures proposed here.     

Exploitation aversion: When financial incentives fail to motivate agents

Studies of the principal-agent relationship find that monetary incentives work in many instances but that they can also backfire. Various mechanisms for this failure have been examined (e.g., intrinsic motivation, image concerns). We posit that an aversion to being exploited, i.e., being used instrumentally for another’s benefit, can also cause incentives to fail. Using an experiment we find that compliance is lower for exploitative principals compared to neutral ones despite using the same contracts. To corroborate our results we show that surveyed “exploitation aversion” mediates this effect. Our results have implications for the design and implementation of incentives within organizations.     

综合院校临床医学专业学生就业竞争力现状及对策研究

在就业形势日益严峻的今天,大学生就业问题在一定程度上制约了社会经济的发展,同时也关乎国家全局的稳定建设。在高等教育由精英化转向大众化的大背景之下,“市场化”、“竞争化”和“国际化”的教育趋势越发明显,大学生就业问题无疑成为了当下讨论和关注的热点。在综合性院校中,由于临床医学的专业性较强,这就决定了毕业生的就业渠道较为狭窄。加之医学毕业生数量的逐年增加,就业难的问题也日益突出。因地制宜,立足实际,提升医学毕业生的就业竞争力,既关系着综合院校的整体竞争力,也事关我国和谐社会的发展。     

土耳其中等强国外交的现实性和可能性

进入新世纪以来,随着土耳其经济的快速发展,其政治与外交政策也在发生变化。尤其在正义与发展党执政后,依托中东格局进入旧已破、新未立的转型之机,逐步形成中等强国型的外交战略。本文从土耳其所具有的现实条件和制约因素两个方面分析该外交战略构想的现实性和可能性。     

改革攻坚:对当代中国改革一个重大基本问题的分析

改革攻坚源发于我国后发现代化语境下政治权力主导的渐进改革模式。改革攻坚是针对处于体制核心领域即政治权力系统中严重阻滞改革进一步深化的消极因素而言的。这些消极因素包括实体因素、体制因素与具体问题因素三个相互交织、相互强化的层次。改革攻坚意味着政治权力系统必须针对自身深化改革,进一步增强自身的制度规范性与治理有效性。中国改革大致在20世纪90年代中后期进入攻坚阶段。     

Assessing and Improving the Performance of Nearly Efficient Unit Root Tests in Small Samples

Abstract

The development of unit root tests continues unabated, with many recent contributions using techniques such as generalized least squares (GLS) detrending and recursive detrending to improve the power of the test. In this article, the relation between the seemingly disparate tests is demonstrated by algebraically nesting all of them as ratios of quadratic forms in normal variables. By doing so, and using the exact sampling distribution of the ratio, it is straightforward to compute, examine, and compare the test' critical values and power functions. It is shown that use of GLS detrending parameters other than those recommended in the literature can lead to substantial power improvements. The open and important question regarding the nature of the first observation is addressed. Tests with high power are proposed irrespective of the distribution of the initial observation, which should be of great use in practical applications.