Competition,formal governance and trust in alliances: An experimental study

We study the role of alliance governance in the behavior of partners in alliances with different degrees of competition. Using data from a lab experiment on 1,009 alliances and 31,662 partners' choices, we explore whether and how alliances succeed in different competitive scenarios, contingent on the use of formal governance mechanisms (termination clauses) and the number of partners in the alliance. We find that trust, an informal governance mechanism, emerges as a complement to formal governance in order to establish success in our experimental alliances, especially when competition is high. In particular, we document the significance of “trust-building” in initial stages and “trust repair” in later stages of our experimental alliances.     

矛盾凸显期农村纠纷调解的个案分析——基于鄂北一个村庄的纠纷调处记录

随着我国社会进入矛盾凸显期,农村各种矛盾纠纷日益增多,为及时调解纠纷,维持社会稳定,实践中各种纠纷调处机制应运而生。本文分析了鄂北一个村庄的纠纷调处记录,研究发现,较之于"以事实为依据,以法律为准绳"的现代司法准则,以"村庄法官"角色存在的调解者,不以立法条文以及事实情况作为判断是非的依据;实现法律意义上的公平、公正也并非是纠纷调处的主要目的,但他们在工作中特别注重当事人主观上的接受情况。同时,调解者经常集多重角色于一身,实行"保姆式"办案,还会动员多方主体参与到问题的解决中去;在另一些冲突中,调解者刻意不彻底解决纠纷,为当事人自动和好留下足够的空间,最终既平复了争议,又保存了当事人的颜面。结合村庄的调解经验,文章认为,尽管矛盾纠纷的增多,为现代立法快速进入乡土社会提供了更大的空间和可能性,但到目前为止,无论是笼统意义上的法治理念,还是国家立法的具体规则都没有全面、彻底地进入乡村社会;各地村级调解机制设立和运作更多是为了维持社会稳定,而不是为了推进"法律下乡"。     

关于半总统制体制的类型和稳定性分析

伴随越来越多新兴民主国家在政治转型时实行半总统制,如今半总统制体制日益成为比较政治研究中的重要问题。学界从不同角度对半总统制加以定义并进行类型分析,其中魏玛共和国是历史上的典型案例。魏玛共和国的经验教训和各国的政治实践表明,一国的权力关系结构和制度设计关乎该国政治运行的走向,权力关系结构过度分散和政党政治的过度分化不利于政治的稳定发展,尤其不利于民主基础薄弱的发展中国家政治的稳定发展。     

高压输电网设计中出现的二阶非线性方程的全局性态分析

本文研究高压输电网设计中所出现的系统 x+RF＇(x)x＇+1/LF(x)=Acosωt,F(x)=L(x+βx~7)。 对方程进行了定性分析,指出方程的一切解是有界的,给出了存在唯一周期为2π/ω的周期解的条件,系统存在平稳状态的振荡的参数的取值范围。     

Hidden Markov Mixture Autoregressive Models: Stability and Moments

This article introduces a parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models, where the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, as functions of all past observations. These latent variables follow a Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm for forecasting, which reduces the volume of calculations. We also derive limiting behavior of unconditional first moment of the process and an appropriate upper bound for the limiting value of the variance. Further more, we show convergence and stability of the second moment. Finally, we illustrate the efficacy of the proposed model by simulation.     

Testing for coefficient stability of AR(1) model when the null is an integrated or a stationary process

In this paper, we propose a new test for coefficient stability of an AR(1) model against the random coefficient autoregressive model of order 1 neither assuming a stationary nor a non-stationary process under the null hypothesis of a constant coefficient. The proposed test is obtained as a modification of the locally best invariant (LBI) test by Lee [(1998). Coefficient constancy test in a random coefficient autoregressive model. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 74, 93–101]. We examine finite sample properties of the proposed test by Monte Carlo experiments comparing with other existing tests, in particular, the LBI test by McCabe and Tremayne [(1995). Testing a time series for difference stationary. Ann. Statist. 23 (3), 1015–1028], which is for the null of a unit root process against the alternative of a stochastic unit root process.     

关于常系数线性系统稳定性问题的一点注记

本文对〔1〕中部分定理或给出了更加直观、简捷的证明,或使其易于操作与使用。     

关于一类离散系统部分变元的稳定性

随着科学技术的发展,一类重要方程——差分方程已越来越广泛地被科枝工作者所应用。本文讨论了一类离散大系统关于部分变元渐近稳定性的判定方法,该方法切实可行。     

Empirical Likelihood Based Rank Regression Inference

Rank regression procedures have been proposed and studied for numerous research applications that do not satisfy the underlying assumptions of the more common linear regression models. This article develops confidence regions for the slope parameter of rank regression using an empirical likelihood (EL) ratio method. It has the advantage of not requiring variance estimation which is required for the normal approximation method. The EL method is also range respecting and results in asymmetric confidence intervals. Simulation studies are used to compare and evaluate normal approximation versus EL inference methods for various conditions such as different sample size or error distribution. The simulation study demonstrates our proposed EL method almost outperforms the traditional method in terms of coverage probability, lower-tail side error, and upper-tail side error. An application of stability analysis also shows the EL method results in shorter confidence intervals for real life data.     

The stability of self-control in a population-representative study

We investigate the stability of self-control at the population level. Analyzing repeated Brief Self-Control Scale scores, we demonstrate that self-control exhibits a high degree of mean-level, rank-order, and individual-level stability over the medium term. Changes in self-control are not associated with major life events, nor are they economically important. The stability of self-control is particularly striking given that our study period (2017–2020) spans the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.