对我国高校社会工作专业人才培养的思考

2011年11月,中组部等18个部门和组织联合发布《关于加强社会工作专业人才队伍建设的意见》,充分说明国家对社会工作专业人才的高度重视,同时也进一步体现经济社会发展对社会工作专业人才的迫切需求。因此,高质量社会工作专业人才的培养已经成为高等学校的重大课题,本文从人才培养目标定位、服务面向、培养模式构建等三个重要方面切入,提出对我国高校社会工作专业人才培养的思考。     

A Comparative Study of Model-based Tests of Independence for Ordinal Data Using the Bootstrap

When analyzing categorical data using loglinear models in sparse contingency tables, asymptotic results may fail. In this paper the empirical properties of three commonly used asymptotic tests of independence, based on the uniform association model for ordinal data, are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Five different bootstrapped tests of independence are presented and compared to the asymptotic tests. The comparisons are made with respect to both size and power properties of the tests. Results indicate that the asymptotic tests have poor size control. The test based on the estimated association parameter is severely conservative and the two chi-squared tests (Pearson, likelihood-ratio) are both liberal. The bootstrap tests that either use a parametric assumption or are based on non-pivotal test statistics do not perform better than the asymptotic tests in all situations. The bootstrap tests that are based on approximately pivotal statistics provide both adjustment of size and enhancement of power. These tests are therefore recommended for use in situations similar to those included in the simulation study.     

嫩模现象：一种新兴青年文化

嫩模现象是个横空出世的新兴青年文化现象，亦是香港普及文化的重要一课。讨论嫩模现象的由来，以及在众声喧哗中隐含的各种文化政治，例如名人概念、青年概念、女性身体等，能检视社会主流论述对此等文化概念的意义转变和规训等。     

Public broadcast of health communication: Extending public relations through social capital in Taiwan

This paper shows how a public media can effectively utilize its social capital, and integrate with different resources from the related non-profit organizations and corporations in public relations perspective. A case study of a high-popularity Taiwanese public traffic radio: Police Broadcasting Service (PBS) is conducted. The finding shows that the public radio can cost-effectively deliver health communication with the principle of social marketing.     

美国BIT范本的环境政策考量与变迁及其对中国的启示

美国从1981年启用第一个BIT范本,之后历经数次修订,形成不同版本。其中的环境保护条款从无到有、从简到繁,2012年版本对环境保护又有大力强化。虽然环境例外条款具有法律形态,但因其为缔约方保留环境规制的空间,没有消极影响,其他环境条款尤其专门环境条款则只具有政策形态,对缔约方只有倡导和督促作用,因而也不具有负面意义。基于此,对于中美BIT谈判,中国应该持有像实践WTO规则一样的心态,研究它、接受它,为投身国际实践走出第一步,为将来参与更大范围的规则制定做好准备。     

中国国民财富总量、结构及其演进模式研究——基于“自上而下-自下而上”测度范式

“财富-福利等式”表明国民财富与社会福利具有理论等价关系,是评估发展可持续性的最优指示器。我国国民财富研究相对滞后,总量测度与结构分析都亟待深化。本文基于“自上而下-自下而上”范式,依据国情优化关键参数的设定,改进了我国国民财富与分类资本估算,并剖析了省际国民财富结构以识别其演进模式。研究发现:由于资源禀赋与发展阶段有别,省际国民财富结构差异显著;随着经济发展水平提升,国民财富结构先由自然资本主导转向物质资本与人力资本共同主导,进而转变为人力资本主导,最终迈入社会资本主导。各地区应结合自身禀赋与发展阶段做好“投资组合管理”,以此来提升国民财富并优化其结构从而改善经济发展的持续性。     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

Social network and family business: Uncovering hybrid family firms

What does it mean for a private enterprise in China to be embedded in a family? Our purpose here is twofold: (1) use social network analysis to describe what it means for a firm to be embedded in a family, (2) reveal from the application a new kind of firm, not family, yet akin to family. Armed with data on a large probability sample of private enterprises — a third of which meet ownership and employment criteria of being family businesses — we uncover a category of “hybrid family firms” that look modern in the style of firms that exclude family, but operate socially in ways similar to family firms. Our conclusion from summary statistics on the sample is that there are no differences in average performance level or network advantage for the three categories of businesses: family firms, hybrid family firms, and family-excluded firms. The fact that CEOs of family firms and hybrid family firms more often turn to family as key business contacts is a fact about network composition that raises no question about network mechanisms. Whether the CEO turns to more or fewer family contacts, government help is more likely with stronger political connections, and business success and survival are more likely with a large, open network. That said, the look-modern, act-traditional hybrid family firms stand alone in prospering with a CEO embedded in a closed business network. Recognition of hybrid family firms adds to the literature’s illustrations of social network analysis used to distinguish types of businesses and business people, and extends the population of organizations within which governance and strategy are likely to be better understood when viewed through a family logic.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

Testing for Serial Independence: Beyond the Portmanteau Approach

Portmanteau tests are typically used to test serial independence even if, by construction, they are generally powerful only in presence of pairwise dependence between lagged variables. In this article, we present a simple statistic defining a new serial independence test, which is able to detect more general forms of dependence. In particular, differently from the Portmanteau tests, the resulting test is powerful also under a dependent process characterized by pairwise independence. A diagram, based on p-values from the proposed test, is introduced to investigate serial dependence. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposal is evaluated in a simulation study and with an application on financial data. Both show that the new test, used in synergy with the existing ones, helps in the identification of the true data-generating process. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.