人民币汇率失衡与调整问题研究

 摘　　要:目前，学术界在人民币汇率问题的研究上存在着分歧。尤其是对均衡汇率的测算，在方法上存在不足。多数模型的设计实质上是把名义汇率或实际有效汇率的平滑值当作了均衡汇率，而非真正的经济学意义上的均衡汇率。本文设计了一种“多目标两阶段估值”的方法来测算均衡汇率：在第一阶段，依据实现均衡汇率的各个目标，分别估算不同目标条件下的均衡汇率；第二阶段，以第一阶段估算的均衡汇率和实现均衡汇率的各目标建立计量模型，得到均衡汇率精算值。在深入分析汇率失衡给宏观经挤带来的后果的基础上，依据均衡汇率的计算结果，本文认为，提升汇率符合中国的长期利益和根本利益，而且在觋阶段政府还不应该放弃对汇率调整的干预     

基于储蓄内生化的中国均衡积累率研究

论文以拉姆齐消费动态模型中的储蓄内生化分析框架为基础,并以中国相关统计数据测算出的各项参数为依据,对中国储蓄内生化的均衡积累率进行了模拟,给出了以消费路径为基础的、不同数量界面的均衡积累路径,并进行了简要分析。     

抗SPA攻击的快速LSB均衡隐藏算法

提出了一种新的LSB隐藏方法,根据待嵌载体图像像素值的奇偶性和嵌入信息的内容,选择像素值加1或加2的嵌入方式,使得SPA(sample pair analysis)攻击的假设条件在嵌入前后保持平衡,致使SPA攻击失效。在使用该方法嵌入率达到100%时,SPA攻击的估计值仍然小于判决门限。实验不仅验证了新方法抵抗SPA攻击的能力,也验证了新方法可以抵抗RS等检测。新方法嵌入方式简单,且无需在嵌入后再做附加处理,便于实现。     

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance,Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.     

联立方程计量经济学模型的结构识别

本文提出了联立方程计量经济学模型结构识别的概念与方法。应用该方法识别模型与统计数据无关,并且与模型参数的具体数值也无关,对计量经济学建模与分析有实际意义.     

邓小平辩证发展观与和谐社会的构建

研究邓小平辩证发展观时,学术界往往较多关注其非均衡发展思想,而忽略对其"综合平衡"均衡发展思想的研究,针对这一现状,分析了邓小平均衡与非均衡辩证发展观及其对构建和谐社会的作用。分析认为:均衡发展不是社会各方面同步发展,非均衡发展并非是"单打一"的发展;均衡与非均衡发展应是在差异基础上的"和谐"共进,是均衡发展与非均衡发展的有机统一。当前重新认识和深刻领会邓小平辩证发展观对于和谐社会的构建无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

Coming of age

Those of us who study aging have the unique opportunity to live their subject matter. Whether we learn any personal lessons is a matter of our own reflectivity, but personal experience can make us far better scholars than can scholarship alone. As one ponders the life course, it is clear that a number of institutional influences, temporal patterning, and unexpected intervening variables are involved in the unfolding of one's life. Life-long institutional memberships furnish social capital that helps establish parameters for our personal experience, for how we view our personal trajectories and for our ability to cope with the aging process itself. But how to come to terms with unexpected occurrences that alter the anticipated futures we had in mind? Do our scholarly efforts and our experience come together in ways that enrich one or the other? These are the questions I explore in this personal essay.     

基于行程时间可靠性的随机交通网络均衡模型

考虑现实条件下交通网络的不确定性状态，提出了从确定型网络到不确定型网络状态下出行者路径选择行为的改变，及基于行程时间可靠性的路径选择模型。并将可靠行程时间的路径选择行为纳入到随机交通网络平衡分配模型中，证明了模型的等价性和唯一性。在一个小型测试网络上对模型分配结果进行了测试，测试结果与经验相吻合，表明模型具有较好的现实可行性。     

robability is obtained as the va

algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variab     

Comment on An and Schorfheide's Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models

An and Schorfheide's article provides an excellent review of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models. Rather than recapitulating the points already made in this article, my comment focuses on three aspects. It proposes a convergence measure to take account of serial correlation of MCMC draws, explains why the DSGE-VAR framework for policy analysis can be improved by avoiding the ad hoc identification assumption, and discusses an alternative structural approach to model misspecification.