冷战后美国中东战略的调整与伊朗核问题

新一届美国政府成立后,其对伊朗核问题的立场成为国际社会广泛关注的热点问题。伊朗核问题解决的方式,主要取决于美伊双方,但在全球化的今天,美国和伊朗走向直接对抗甚至爆发战争的可能性越来越小,双方更可能以全方位外交谈判的方式来解决美伊之间的矛盾。     

Anti-hierarchical activism in Hong Kong: the post-80s youth

In 2009, a political youth movement known as the Post-80s emerged in Hong Kong to protest against the construction of a high-speed railway. While local academics and government officials framed the motivations of these youth protesters using economic rationales, I argue here that the Post-80s are better understood as conveying their dissatisfaction towards existing political structures in the city. This profile sets out Post-80s criticisms of the entrenched hierarchical dynamics in Hong Kong political culture that has shaped interactions between the government, political parties and the wider population, and discusses how the Post-80s have responded to the representational imbalances imposed by these hierarchical practices in the local political sphere by advocating for a way of doing politics where individual voices (as opposed to the collective) are emphasized, and where horizontal structures are used. I conclude by exploring the repercussions of this critique on recent political discourses and protests observed in Hong Kong.     

Linking family engagement with a rights perspective: macro factors influencing practice

While child welfare practitioners in many countries are struggling to develop methods of effective family engagement, they operate within different national and cultural contexts that influence, both positively and negatively, the ability to engage with families. Increasingly, international comparisons are necessary to further understanding of the development of social work practice. This is particularly necessary because most countries utilize international frameworks (such as the United National Convention on the Rights of the Child) to provide guidance in the development of policies, programs, and interventions. Each country (and locality) struggles to advance practice to be more effective and humane. Our paper offers a comparative analysis focused on family-oriented and rights-based frameworks of different countries. Based on a review of current national policies and a review of the literature regarding family-based practices, we examine similarities and differences among four countries: the United Kingdom, Sweden, the United States, and South Korea. These countries were selected because they have some similarities (advanced industrialized democracies, professional social work, and formal child protection systems) but have some differences in their social welfare systems (policies, specific practices, and socio-cultural context). These differences can be utilized to advance understanding regarding the promise and potential for family engagement strategies. We then discuss the utility of this comparison for theory-building in the arena of child-care practice and conclude by identifying the challenges and limitations of this work.     

The role,importance and challenges of social sciences and humanities in the work of the intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPBES)

Qualified competences in social science and humanities are required across the various deliverables of the intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPBES) in order to fully address the objectives of IPBES. Building integrative approaches has long been acknowledged as a scientific challenge. Hence, new paths have to be forged, including revisiting basic ontological and epistemological considerations, such as how we understand the world, what knowledge is, and the role of science. Constructive interdisciplinary dialogues in IPBES supports the development of innovative frames and terminologies. One example is the evolution from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ecosystem service framework to the Nature’s Contributions to People classification now applied in IPBES assessments. IPBES is still in a learning phase and critical examination of what is accomplished this far is useful when refining ongoing modes of work and in long-term strategic considerations.     

The Bayes rule of the variance parameter of the hierarchical normal and inverse gamma model under Stein's loss

For the variance parameter of the hierarchical normal and inverse gamma model, we analytically calculate the Bayes rule (estimator) with respect to a prior distribution IG (alpha, beta) under Stein's loss function. This estimator minimizes the posterior expected Stein's loss (PESL). We also analytically calculate the Bayes rule and the PESL under the squared error loss. Finally, the numerical simulations exemplify that the PESLs depend only on alpha and the number of observations. The Bayes rules and PESLs under Stein's loss are unanimously smaller than those under the squared error loss.     

Synthetic double sampling s chart

This study proposes a synthetic double sampling s chart that integrates the double sampling (DS) s chart and the conforming run length chart. An optimization procedure is proposed to compute the optimal parameters of the synthetic DS s chart. The performance of the synthetic DS s chart is compared with other existing control charts for monitoring process standard deviation. The results show that the synthetic DS s chart is more effective for detecting increases in the process standard deviation for a wide range of shifts. An example is provided to illustrate the operation procedure of the synthetic DS s chart.     

Alone and adrift: The association between mass school shootings,school size,and student support

Background

School shootings have approached epidemic levels in recent years. While mental illness is undoubtedly involved in nearly all cases of mass school violence, we sought to determine how environmental context may exacerbate preexisting personal factors. The present study investigated the associations between mass school shootings, school enrollment size, student–teacher ratios, and student transitions.