味经刊书处：陕西近代出版业的先声

味经刊书处作为附设于味经书院的一个专业出版机构,代表了传统刊书向近现代图书出版的过渡,从刊书内容到管理制度两方面突破了传统模式,顺应了时代发展的需要,是出版史上的一个成功范例。通过对其管理制度和刊书成果的分析研究,可以看出味经刊书处对于陕西近现代出版业所做的独特贡献。     

Bayesian estimation in Kibble's bivariate gamma distribution

The authors describe Bayesian estimation for the parameters of the bivariate gamma distribution due to Kibble (1941). The density of this distribution can be written as a mixture, which allows for a simple data augmentation scheme. The authors propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate estimation. They show that the resulting chain is geometrically ergodic, and thus a regenerative sampling procedure is applicable, which allows for estimation of the standard errors of the ergodic means. They develop Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures to test both the dependence hypothesis of the two variables and the hypothesis of equal means. They also propose a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out the model selection problem. Finally, they use sets of real and simulated data to illustrate their methodology.     

我们要构筑三大经济发展高地

谋划城镇的发展，首先应搞清楚我们的经济高地在哪里，有的放矢，才能减少决策失误，降低开发成本，加快发展速度，提高经济质量，实现科学发展。在全球化时代，我们要积极构筑“三大经济发展高地”，才能占领制高点，掌握经济发展的话语权和主动权。     

论期刊装帧设计的新特征

期刊装帧设计是高校装帧设计教学中的一门重要课程，跟市场的变化有着密切的关系，研究市场变化才能为教学内容的设置“有的放矢”。本文拟就期刊装帧设计在市场上出现的新问题作一研究，以利期刊装帧设计教学的完善和对广大学习期刊装帧设计学生予以积极引导。     

Rate of strong uniform convergence of k-NN density estimates

Let f_n(x) be the univariate k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) density estimate proposed by Loftsgaarden and Quesenberry (1965). By using similar techniques as in Bahadur's representation of sample quantiles (1966), and by the recent results on the oscillation of empirical processes by Stute (1982), we derive the rate of strong uniform convergence of f_n(x) on some suitably chosen interval J_δ. Some comparison with the kernel estimates is given, as well as the choice of the bandwidth sequence relative to the sample size.     

Copules archimédiennes et families de lois bidimensionnelles dont les marges sont données

Every bivariate distribution function with continuous marginals can be represented in terms of a unique copula, that is, in terms of a distribution function on the unit square with uniform marginals. This paper is concerned with a special class of copulas called Archimedean, which includes the uniform representation of many standard bivariate distributions. Conditions are given under which these copulas are stochastically ordered and pointwise limits of sequences of Archimedean copulas are examined. We also provide two new one-parameter families of bivariate distributions which include as limiting cases the Frechet bounds and the independence distribution.     

The ideological context of child welfare

This paper examines consequences for child development and well-being of the prevailing institutional order and ideology of the United States and concludes that child development in our country is severely obstructed because of socially structured violence which permeates our way of life. The paper ends with comments on prospects for social transformation which seems necessary to assure the development and well-being of every child.     

Three models of OPEC leadership and policy in the aftermath of Iran

Collapse of the Shah's regime has transformed Iran's attitude regarding oil production policy. The nature of OPEC leadership is changing as well. Three models examine the nature of this leadership inside OPEC: (1) the conventional price leadership model, (2) a model emphasizing a concept of egalitarian leadership, and (3) a team model composed of coalitions. The three models establish the limits within which OPEC leadership is exercised. A composite model drawing upon all three sets of results suggests that Saudi Arabia shapes cartel policy not by itself, but through a dominant coalition of states. For most of the period 1969–1978 this coalition has been stable. Following the unsettling changes of 1973, cooptation of Iran into the dominant coalition in 1974 was an important step in achieving a new level of stability. But during the turbulence of regime transformation in Iran, the nature of the governing coalition appears to have changed. One consequence may be that in the future Saudi Arabia will yield more willingly to arguments heard within OPEC on behalf of upwards price pressure, especially in an atmosphere of growing political isolation and overall tight supply.     

An analysis of variables affecting length of stay in foster care

The purpose of this paper was to find out whether the relationship between type of contact with agency and/or child in foster care and average number of contacts over time makes any difference in length of stay in foster care. Four types of contacts were examined: Family—Agency, Family Initiated—Agency, Social Worker—Initiated, and Family—Child. Results indicated that there were critical numbers for each contact type found to be statistically significant that would tend to reduce the length of the child's stay in foster care. The importance of contact during the first month of placement was emphasized.