Three models of OPEC leadership and policy in the aftermath of Iran

Collapse of the Shah's regime has transformed Iran's attitude regarding oil production policy. The nature of OPEC leadership is changing as well. Three models examine the nature of this leadership inside OPEC: (1) the conventional price leadership model, (2) a model emphasizing a concept of egalitarian leadership, and (3) a team model composed of coalitions. The three models establish the limits within which OPEC leadership is exercised. A composite model drawing upon all three sets of results suggests that Saudi Arabia shapes cartel policy not by itself, but through a dominant coalition of states. For most of the period 1969–1978 this coalition has been stable. Following the unsettling changes of 1973, cooptation of Iran into the dominant coalition in 1974 was an important step in achieving a new level of stability. But during the turbulence of regime transformation in Iran, the nature of the governing coalition appears to have changed. One consequence may be that in the future Saudi Arabia will yield more willingly to arguments heard within OPEC on behalf of upwards price pressure, especially in an atmosphere of growing political isolation and overall tight supply.     

An analysis of variables affecting length of stay in foster care

The purpose of this paper was to find out whether the relationship between type of contact with agency and/or child in foster care and average number of contacts over time makes any difference in length of stay in foster care. Four types of contacts were examined: Family—Agency, Family Initiated—Agency, Social Worker—Initiated, and Family—Child. Results indicated that there were critical numbers for each contact type found to be statistically significant that would tend to reduce the length of the child's stay in foster care. The importance of contact during the first month of placement was emphasized.     

The strong uniform convergence of multivariate variable kernel estimates

We show that sup, completely as, where f is a uniformly continuous density on are independent random vectors with common density f, and f_n is the variable kernel estimate Here H_ni is the distance between X_i and its kth nearest neighbour, K is a given density satisfying some regularity conditions, and k is a sequence of integers with the property that log asn     

An operative extension of the likelihood ratio test from fuzzy data

In the present paper we are going to extend the likelihood ratio test to the case in which the available experimental information involves fuzzy imprecision (more precisely, the observable events associated with the random experiment concerning the test may be characterized as fuzzy subsets of the sample space, as intended by Zadeh, 1965). In addition, we will approximate the immediate intractable extension, which is based on Zadeh’s probabilistic definition, by using the minimum inaccuracy principle of estimation from fuzzy data, that has been introduced in previous papers as an operative extension of the maximum likelihood method.     

陈宝箴与湖南新学

本文通过时务学堂创办过程陈宝箴对湖南新旧势力的态度、陈宝箴与梁启超在目标与做法上的差异，去探讨陈宝箴在这一时期的思想，认为：陈宝箴在湖南对维新运动采取相当开明的态度，但又不赞成康、梁变法改制的思想，并对之严加批评。     

一人多机的动态配置模型及其解法

本文以机械企业为背景,探讨了一人多机看管问题中的人员配置问题,并采用层次序列法对人员配置数学模型进行了求解,给出了启发式解法,指出了进一步研究的方向。     

偏振光的双光束与多光束干涉

本文通过时平面偏振光的双光束与多先束干涉现象的讨论，使对偏振光的干涉有进一步的认识，并计算出偏振光照明条件下，光栅的光强分布和分辨本领。     

拒不说明巨额财产来源罪探讨

本文从维护廉政制度角度,提出“拒不说明巨额财产来源”侵害的是国家机关的正常活动和廉政制度双重客体;表现为行为人拒不履行保持公正廉洁的特定义务;其犯罪主体是国家工作人员:其主观方面是由故意构成。据上设“拒不说明巨额财产来源罪”成立。     

Political assessment by international firms: Models or methodologies?

Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance.