农村住户调查县级样本代表性评估方法研究

 全国农村住户调查县级样本在1984年抽选后几未改变,在全国农村住户新一轮样本轮换中对其代表性进行评估非常必要,因此研究开发县级样本代表性评估方法有重要意义。本文利用第二次全国农业普查和县市统计数据,以甘肃省为例,通过分析调查县样本特性、考察调查县的收入分布和地域分布,探索调查县农民收入水平对所在省农民收入水平代表性的评估与调查县调整方法。     

中国投资者的风险偏好

 投资者如何分配家庭资产,为个体的风险偏好研究提供了重要的信息。本文采用奥尔多投资研究中心《城市投资者行为调查问卷》的调查结果,从投资者对风险资产需求这一角度,详细研究哪些因素会显著影响投资者的风险偏好,以及不同群体投资者风险偏好的异质性问题。研究结果表明：投资者的财富水平、受教育程度、健康状况、收入水平和是否抚养小孩都是影响投资者风险偏好的重要因素。同时,不同群体风险偏好的表现有差异。研究中国投资者风险偏好的异质性,可以为进一步研究投资者的金融资产决策、储蓄行为、财富积累过程以及不同群体对宏观经济政策的反应提供依据。     

统计数据项目、发布渠道与用户质量感知

 通过实施统计用户满意度调查,测量统计用户对于政府统计部门所生产各类统计数据项目的综合质量感知,及其在主要发布渠道的具体质量感知状况。基于调查数据的分析结果表明：各类统计数据项目的综合用户质量感知水平存在较为明显的差异,用户质量感知与其使用频率之间保持了一定的正相关关系;而各类统计项目在不同发布渠道的具体质量表现也不尽相同。据此可以有效确立统计数据质量管理工作的重点环节。     

Information-Processing Alternatives for Coping with Manufacturing Environment Complexity

Investment in information systems and technology is often justified as a necessary strategy for coping with the increased complexity and information needs of today/s manufacturing environments. However, the world class manufacturing paradigm suggests that increased complexity is not always necessary to meet the needs of markets and customers. Galbraith/s (1973, 1977) seminal information-processing model is applied to a manufacturing environment, supported by the world class manufacturing paradigm, to test the role of various information-processing alternatives for coping with increased environmental complexity. Moderated regression and multiple discriminant analysis are used to test hypotheses in a sample of 164 manufacturing plants. Environmental complexity was found to be related to manufacturing performance for each of the five dependent variables. This relationship was moderated by at least one information-processing alternative for each dependent variable, including self-contained tasks, lateral relations, and environmental management strategies for reducing manufacturing, supplier, and goal diversity. Investments in information systems and reduction of labor and customer diversity did not moderate this relationship. Practices that were found to be particularly effective in moderating this relationship included the use of multifunctional employees, communication of manufacturing strategy, coordination of decision making, product design simplicity, reduction of parts counts, supervisory interaction facilitation, recruiting and selection for flexible employees, JIT practices, blanket purchase orders, and strong customer relationships.     

抽样调查中的权数问题研究

用样本数据推断总体,权数的作用十分重要。使用权数,不仅能将样本还原到总体,还能调整样本结构,使其与总体结构相一致,因此正确的使用权数是我们进行统计推断的基础。本文系统阐述了抽样调查分析中权数的获取过程,以及后期对初始权数调整过程。由于权数是把双刃剑,在提高精度的同时,有可能提高估计量的误差,本文提出了对权数进行评估的方法,研讨如何对权数进行控制,最后根据我国综合社会调查项目（CGSS）的数据进行实证分析,按照所给方法不仅能提高估计精度,而且能够降低抽样推断中的权效应。     

新中国政府统计调查制度的建立、发展和改革六十年

统计调查制度是统计工作的基础和规范。目前我国已建立起一个庞大的统计调查制度体系,从内容上讲,包括国民经济核算体系、统计指标体系、统计标准体系、统计调查方法体系和统计调查制度管理体系。文章首先就新中国政府统计成立60年以来我国上述五个体系的建立和发展历程进行了回顾和梳理,然后就我国政府统计调查制度的主要特点及推行中获得的有益经验进行了总结,最后指出现行统计调查制度中存在的主要问题和改革的方向。     

Editorial

The UK Government agencies have an interest in making greater use of administrative data. This paper discusses the methodological challenges of using administrative data held by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) for constructing an alternative sampling frame for the Family Resources Survey (FRS) and for replacing income data collected in the FRS. The analysis shows that administrative data would provide a good basis for sampling the FRS by linking to socio-demographic data held administratively, which would be advantageous for sampling specific sub-populations (e.g. types of benefit recipients or households with children). Sampling using administrative data also potentially offers more representative population sampling by including some addresses currently excluded from the small users Postcode Address File (PAF) but which are important to DWP, such as people living in care homes. However, comparing FRS questions and income data held administratively, suggests little overlap. Therefore, limited gains may be realised from shortening the length of the FRS by using income data from administrative sources.     

Marital dissolution among the 1958 British birth cohort: The role of cohabitation

This paper investigates the effect of previous cohabitation on marital stability among the 1958 British birth cohort. Prospective data from the National Child Development Study are used to investigate the way in which family background factors and early lifecourse experiences, including cohabitation, affect the risk of first marriage dissolution by age 33. Discrete time logistic regression hazards models are used to analyse the risk of separation in the first eight years of marriage. Many socio-economic and family background factors are found to act through more intermediate determinants, such as age at marriage and the timing of childbearing, to affect the risk of separation. Previous cohabitation with another partner and premarital cohabitation are both associated with higher rates of marital breakdown. The effect of premarital cohabitation is attenuated but remains significant once the characteristics of cohabitors are controlled, and cannot be explained by the longer time spent in a partnership.     

Excitement-seeking Gambling in a Nationally Representative Sample of Recreational Gamblers

Excitement-seeking and related constructs have been associated with heavier gambling and negative health measures in problem and/or pathological gamblers. Most adults gamble recreationally and an understanding of the relationship between excitement-seeking as a motivation for gambling amongst subsyndromal gamblers has significant public health implications. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine a national sample of past-year recreational gamblers (N = 1,476) to identify characteristics distinguishing gamblers acknowledging gambling for excitement (“Excitement-seeking Gamblers” or EGs) and gamblers denying gambling for excitement (“Non-excitement-seeking Gamblers” or NEGs). EGs were more likely than NEGs to report alcohol use and abuse/dependence, any substance abuse/dependence, incarceration, large gambling wins and losses, more frequent and varied gambling, and symptoms of pathological gambling (i.e., at-risk gambling). Together, these findings indicate that EGs are more likely than NEGs to demonstrate problems in multiple areas characterized by impaired impulse control.     

事后调查的理论和它在人口普查修正中的应用

人口普查不可避免地存在误差,如遗漏、重复。为发挥普查的作用,对其结果修正是必要的。一般采用事后调查法修正。事后调查在人口普查结束后进行,主要目的是为修正提供基础数据。普查局利用这些数据,使用捕获再捕获模型,修正人口普查数。