个人所得税减免有助于中国城镇家庭提高消费吗?

预期效应的准确识别往往是政策评估的重点和难点。本文基于中国城镇住户调查2010-2012年月度数据研究发现:第一,2011年6月底个人所得税法修正案获得通过时,工薪家庭消费便已显著增加,并在2011年9月正式实施时达到最大,随后逐步下降,两个月后达到较高稳态(约为0. 20),但在统计意义上并不显著。与既往研究不同,这说明税收减免只在短期提高家庭消费,忽略家庭预期将会导致减税效应低估。第二,家庭增加的支出以服务消费和食物消费为主,耐用消费和债务支出并未显著调整,这可能与减免力度有关。第三,与常规认知不同,政策边际消费倾向更多地随着减税率(而非收入水平或者流动率)增加单调递减。本文通过改进Kueng(2018)所提理论模型,对此进行了解释。     

Inference Tests for Gini-Based Tax Progressivity Indexes

Distribution-free statistical inference procedures for changes in Lorenz- and Gini-based indexes of tax progressivity are developed and applied. Related but distinct tests for the Reynolds–Smolensky index of residual progression and the Kakwani index of liability progression are provided. The inference procedures are illustrated by applying them to Luxembourg Income Study microdata for Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States before and after periods of tax reform. In each country a finding of significant change depends on the choice among progressivity indexes. No single index exhibits a consistent pattern of significant change in all countries across time.     

汉英词典100核心词义项分布研究

在认定《现汉》《牛津》《韦氏》等汉英词典是同类词典的基础上，对这些词典中100核心词的义项数目及其分布进行简要对比，发现与《牛津》《韦氏》等英语词典相比，《现汉》等汉语词典在核心词的义项划分方面比较粗疏。     

个人所得税制度的优化选择

米尔利斯认为非线性的个人所得税是最优化的；斯特恩则根据一些不同的劳动供给函数、财政收入的需要和公平观点，提出了最优线性所得税模型。我们需要重新探讨累进性个人所得税制的合理性；最优税制理论未必适用于发展中国家；个人所得税改革应综合考虑效率与公平两大目标。     

Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory

In an expert knowledge elicitation exercise, experts face a carefully constructed list of questions that they answer according to their knowledge. The elicitation process concludes when a probability distribution is found that adequately captures the experts' beliefs in the light of those answers. In many situations, it is very difficult to create a set of questions that will efficiently capture the experts' knowledge, since experts might not be able to make precise probabilistic statements about the parameter of interest. We present an approach for capturing expert knowledge based on item response theory, in which a set of binary response questions is proposed to the expert, trying to capture responses directly related to the quantity of interest. As a result, the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest will represent the elicited prior distribution that does not assume any particular parametric form. The method is illustrated by a simulated example and by an application involving the elicitation of rain prophets' predictions for the rainy season in the north-east of Brazil.     

论近代英法国家的税收与政体选择——基于交易费用的视角

税收不仅有助于现代国家的诞生，更是现代国家发展的强大推动力量。在政府与纳税人漫长的税收博弈过程中，政府会通过各种手段提高自己的相对讨价还价权力，但面临着竞争约束和交易费用约束。为了获得更多的税收收入，政府必须采取相应措施降低交易费用。而不同性质的税收在征收过程中面临的交易费用是不同的，这会对国家的政体选择和政治发展产生不同影响，英国和法国提供了历史的经验证明。     

Reference dependent preferences,hedonic adaptation and tax evasion: Does the tax burden matter?

We study the effects of the tax burden on tax evasion both theoretically and experimentally. We develop a theoretical framework of tax evasion decisions that is based on two behavioral assumptions: (1) taxpayers are endowed with reference dependent preferences that are subject to hedonic adaptation and (2) in making their choices, taxpayers are affected by ethical concerns. The model generates new predictions on how a change in the tax rate affects the decision to evade taxes. Contrary to the classical expected utility theory, but in line with previous applications of reference dependent preferences to taxpayers’ decisions, an increase in the tax rate increases tax evasion. Moreover, as taxpayers adapt to the new legal tax rate, the decision to evade taxes becomes independent of the tax rate. We present results from a laboratory experiment that support the main predictions of the model.     

Measuring and explaining tax evasion: Improving self-reports using the crosswise model

Due to its sensitive nature, tax compliance is difficult to study empirically, and valid information on tax evasion is rare. More specifically, when directly asked on surveys, respondents are likely to underreport their evasion behavior. Such invalid responses not only bias prevalence estimates but may also obscure associations with individual predictors. To generate more valid estimates of tax evasion, we used a new method of data collection for sensitive questions, the crosswise model (CM). The CM is conceptually based on the randomized response technique (RRT), but due to its advanced design, it is better suited for large surveys than classical RRTs. In an experimental online survey, we compared the CM (N = 862) to standard direct questioning (DQ; N = 305). First, our results showed that the CM was able to elicit a higher proportion of self-stigmatizing reports of tax evasion by increasing privacy in the data collection process. Second, on average, we found stronger effects of our predictor variables on tax evasion in the CM condition compared with the DQ condition such that an egoistic personality and the opportunity for tax evasion predicted actual tax evasion only in the CM condition.     

现行高校英语测试：问题与思考

目前我国有几种大型英语测试，如大学英语四、六级考试，英语专业四、八级考试，公共英语等级考试等，这些考试不可避免地存在一些共同的问题，即：考试制度不合理、信度和效度低、考试题型单一、阅卷评分有误差等。就上述问题提出了几点改革的设想。     

税收合同的性质辨析

税法上虽然以税收法定主义为其最高原则，但税收合同的存在有其合理性。前提是不能消除法定的纳税义务。因为税收合同具有经济目的，主体一方恒定是代表政府的征税机关，个别利益和由政府代表的整体利益并重，体现经济法的“纵横统一”思想，税务机关具有主导性，体现了经济法的动态的实现机制，因而从其性质上应归为经济合同。税收合同又有其自身的特点，如其有限的合意性、没有具体的对待给付从而不表现为对价的关系、不受商事和经济规律的支配、合同的基本条件或主要条件并非是由政府规定的、主要体现税收效率原则。