Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Bridging the gap between social work practice and community based welfare agencies

This article argues that social work in the UK needs to renegotiate its relationship with community welfare agencies. It begins by examining what we mean by local community and how welfare needs reflect complex non-linear dynamics unique to the local circumstances. It is argued that these are not always recognised in centralised policy agendas. The article broadly draws a parallel between policy issues for the European Community and for the national state. The drive for both is towards uniformity, which potentially fails to acknowledge the unique circumstances at both the national level between nations and the local level between communities.

The focus of the analysis is the lack of engagement with the subtleties of the local within the arena of social work education and practice. With the opportunity presented by the introduction of a new social work degree in the UK, the authors describe how a social work programme in Liverpool undertook a piece of research with the aim of creating an appropriate place for community welfare agencies in practice placements, the academic curriculum and, ultimately, with the next generation of social work practitioners. Eight welfare agencies within the proximity of Liverpool University, an area known as Toxteth, agreed to participate in the research to investigate what kind of placement module would enable local welfare agencies to engage meaningfully in the social work degree. Out of this process emerged a model for research based curriculum development involving local community agencies and academic institutions. More specifically for Liverpool, it placed the notion of social work's relationship with local community welfare at the heart of professional development for qualifying social workers, paving the way in this region of England for closer links between welfare agencies associated with civil society and professional social workers.     

试论利奥波德的大地伦理观

奥尔多.利奥波德的大地伦理学提出了共同体及其范围扩展、大地伦理学的内涵等观点。他从现代人类所面临的严重生态危机和环境问题入手,总结了关于大地伦理学的观点:改变狭隘的人类中心主义认知观念;树立全新的整体生态伦理观念;维护大自然的和谐共生;人类要关爱一切生命;倡导实际的长久的美丽。     

Service diversification and growth of professional service firms

This study investigates the impact of service diversification on the rate and mode of firm growth in professional service firms (PSFs). Drawing on the extant PSF literature, we identify differing views regarding the growth impact of service diversification. Specifically, some scholars suggest that the external client benefits associated with service diversification should allow PSFs to expand revenues at a rapid pace and pursue less merger and acquisition activity, whereas others imply that increased diversification can cause internal challenges with respect to learning costs, coordination and innovation that can limit the rate of revenue growth and encourage more mergers and acquisitions. We test these competing views using longitudinal data on 137 accounting firms and cross-sectional data on 125 law firms and find that service diversification is negatively associated with the rate of firm revenue growth and positively associated with the use of mergers and acquisitions.     

试论财务人员职业道德建设

本文从当前会计职业道德的现状出发,探讨了会计职业道德规范的内容及会计职业道德建设的途径,提高对会计职业道德建设重要性的认识;加强职业道德教育,增强财会人员使命感;提出构建我国会计职业道德体系框架结构的设想。     

Validation of the Australian Midwifery Standards Assessment Tool (AMSAT): A tool to assess midwifery competence

Background

There is no current validated clinical assessment tool to measure the attainment of midwifery student competence in the midwifery practice setting. The lack of a valid assessment tool has led to a proliferation of tools and inconsistency in assessment of, and feedback on student learning.

Critical Reflection on the Ethics of Mindfulness

Mindfulness is a way to achieve mental wellbeing that has been widely adopted as part of counselling and mental health treatment. However, there is a distinct lack of critical reflection about the origins of this technique, how it is used, and the implications it has for the beliefs of clients. The purpose of this paper is to provide a carefully considered response to the use of humanistic mindfulness. Social workers need to explain why they recommend mindfulness, and explore culturally consistent and sensitive practice, so that they are abiding by the Australian Association of Social Workers Code of ethics.

IMPLICATIONS

• The use of mindfulness in social work practice requires careful consideration as to its impact and relevance to clients’ needs.

• Mindfulness originates in philosophical traditions distinct from mental health treatment.

• In choosing to use mindfulness social workers require consistent and sensitive understanding of clients’ needs, world views, and culture.

     

《周礼》的生态伦理系统思想

《周礼》以取法于天、以礼为治的思想为基础,形成了一套较为完整的生态伦理思想系统,其中包括完备的价值基础、伦理制度和具体的伦理原则。其保护对象主要有土地、山林川泽、矿藏及其他自然资源。《周礼》是世界上最早提到环境保护伦理法规的有系统的著作,其中的思想及措施总结了当时的生态伦理实践经验,对后世的生态伦理思想产生了深远的影响。     

Development of professional roles in the practice of public relations in Chile

Using survey responses of 577 public relation practitioners, this article examines role conceptions in Chilean public relations, as well as the effects that different individual and organizational factors have on their professional worldviews. The results show that how Chilean practitioners perceive their roles can be grouped into four different types: the long-term strategic, the short-term technical, the passive-complaisant, and the active-vigilant. In general terms, Chilean public relations practitioners distance themselves from the passive-complaisant role, giving greater importance to the other three. The findings also reveal that gender, education level, job commitment, perceived autonomy, organization type, and geographical location are the factors that better predict Chilean PR professional roles, while hierarchy level and organization's reach do not directly affect their perceptions.     

Professional identity: How communication management practitioners identify with their industry

This paper explores the current status of professionalization of communication management practice which emerged from a content analysis of 360 responses to questions exploring the nature of practitioner identity (or dis-identity) with communication management. The results revealed that positive identification arose from an ability to influence, emulate the professional values of peers, and cohesion with the wider practitioner community. Conversely, dis-identification arose from the poor performance of colleagues, advice not being taken, and media ‘spin’.