Confidence Intervals for a Binomial Parameter after Observing No Successes

The easily computed, one-sided confidence interval for the binomial parameter provides the basis for an interesting classroom example of scientific thinking and its relationship to confidence intervals. The upper limit can be represented as the sample proportion from a number of “successes” in a future experiment of the same sample size. The upper limit reported by most people corresponds closely to that producing a 95 percent classical confidence interval and has a Bayesian interpretation.     

A nonparametric coherent confidence procedure

ABSTRACT

Holm's step-down testing procedure starts with the smallest p-value and sequentially screens larger p-values without any information on confidence intervals. This article changes the conventional step-down testing framework by presenting a nonparametric procedure that starts with the largest p-value and sequentially screens smaller p-values in a step-by-step manner to construct a set of simultaneous confidence sets. We use a partitioning approach to prove that the new procedure controls the simultaneous confidence level (thus strongly controlling the familywise error rate). Discernible features of the new stepwise procedure include consistency with individual inference, coherence, and confidence estimations for follow-up investigations. In a simple simulation study, the proposed procedure (treated as a testing procedure), is more powerful than Holm's procedure when the correlation coefficient is large, and vice versa when it is small. In the data analysis of a medical study, the new procedure is able to detect the efficacy of Aspirin as a cardiovascular prophylaxis in a nonparametric setting.     

The union-intersection principle applied to the test of dimensionality

In the first section Anderson-Rao-Fujikoshi's test statistics for testing the hypothesis of dimensionality are reviewed and then Olkin-Tomsky's generalized union-intersection principle is applied to show that a new class of test statistics for testing the hypothesis of dimensionality are derived which includes the likelihood ratio test statistics, the trace test statistics and a version of ROY'S maximum root test statistics.     

MODELING THE LIFETIME OF LONGITUDINAL ELEMENTS

In the study of the stochastic behaviour of the lifetime of an element as a function of its length, it is often observed that the failure time (or lifetime) decreases as the length increases. In probabilistic terms, such an idea can be expressed as follows. Let T be the lifetime of a specimen of length x, so the survival function, which denotes the probability that an element of length x survives till time t, will be given by S_T (t, x) = P(T > t/α(x), where α(x) is a monotonically decreasing function. In particular, it is often assumed that T has a Weibull distribution. In this paper, we propose a generalization of this Weibull model by assuming that the distribution of T is Generalized gamma (GG). Since the GG model contains the Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models as special and limiting cases, a GG regression model is an appropriate tool for describing the size effect on the lifetime and for selecting among the embedded models. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for the GG regression model with α(x) = cx^b . As a special case this provide an alternative to the usual approach to estimation for the GG distribution which involves reparametrization. Related parametric inference issues are addressed and illustrated using two experimental data sets. Some discussion of censored data is also provided.     

数学美在科学探索中的功能

本文通过对数学和自然科学发展史的考察,认为数学美在科学家的科学实践活动中,发挥着重要的动力作用和方法论功能。即数学美为科学探索提供持久的内在动力;为科学发现提供武器和导引;为科学成果提供选择和评价的标准。     

清除个人崇拜增强党内民主

完善党内民主制度是提高党的执政能力的重要内容。中国共产党内曾经产生过严重的个人崇拜,今天仍然发生着不良影响。个人崇拜的危害主要表现为集权、人治、偶像崇拜、思想僵化、破坏党内民主制度。不彻底清除个人崇拜,就不能真正完善党内民主制度,党也就不能率领广大人民群众最终完成建设社会主义现代化强国的宏伟任务。     

《还乡》原型浅析

《还乡》是托马斯·哈代的“性格与环境小说”之一。本文从原型批评的角度来探讨这部小说的环境和男女主人公,并分析他们的神话原型意义。     

如何实行用人“订单”式教育与培训的新模式

订单式教育与培训,已成为各行业进行教育与培训的新模式,本文主要对建筑行业实行订单式教育与培训的具体方式进行探讨,并介绍我校实行订单式教育与培训的具体做法。     

伦敦语言学派的兴起及其流变

从理论语言学史看,伦敦学派经历了从马林诺夫斯基人类语言学到弗斯语境语言学,再到韩礼德系统功能语言学的发展。后现代哲学使哲学的终极性基础,亦即使认识主客观对象的途径和方法得到根本的转换(转换成符号),是西方哲学中最重要的思想事件,即所谓"语言学转向",我们无妨说,韩礼德80年代后对他的系统功能语言学的推进,是以符号中介论为其深层理论背景的,或者说与"语言学转向"是一致的。