禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.     

Organizational identification as a mediator for the effects of psychological contract breaches on organizational citizenship behavior: Insights from the perspective of ethnic minority employees

This study examines the contribution of the psychological contract (PC) framework to the understanding of ethnic minority employees’ employment relationships. First, it tests the generalizability of PC types (transactional, relational, and balanced) observed in the general population to ethnic minority employees. Then, to further address the unique needs and motivators of minority employees, this study considers diversity-related PCs. It adopts social exchange theory to explain how transactional, relational, balanced, and diversity-related PC breaches predict organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Moreover, it draws insights from social identity theory and examines the mediating role of organizational identification in the relationship between types of PC breach and OCB. Data from 361 Turkish employees working as ethnic minorities in Belgium indicate that relational and diversity-related PC breaches predict OCB partially via organizational identification while transactional and balanced PC breaches directly affect OCB.     

Asian children’s verbal development: A comparison of the United States and Australia

Using longitudinal cohort studies from Australia and the United States, we assess the pervasiveness of the Asian academic advantage by documenting White-Asian differences in verbal development from early to middle childhood. In the United States, Asian children begin school with higher verbal scores than Whites, but their advantage erodes over time. The initial verbal advantage of Asian American children is partly due to their parent’s socioeconomic advantage and would have been larger had it not been for their mother’s English deficiency. In Australia, Asian children have lower verbal scores than Whites at age 4, but their scores grow a faster rate and converge towards those of Whites by age 8. The initial verbal disadvantage of Asian Australian children is partly due to their mother’s English deficiency and would have been larger had it not been for their Asian parent’s educational advantage. Asian Australian children’s verbal scores grow at a faster pace, in part, because of their parent’s educational advantage.     

Japanese Sociology in a Global Network. Internationalization,Disciplinary Development,and Minority Integration in the Road Ahead

The dual trajectories of Japanese sociology and Japan itself are poised at a watershed moment in their shared history. In recent years, Japanese sociology has enlarged its international presence in unprecedented fashion and the Tokyo Olympics have positioned the global spotlight on the entire nation of Japan, making it an opportune moment to reflect on the future of Japanese sociology in connection to Japanese society by way of internationalization. This article draws on the author's reflections on the latest 92nd Japan Sociological Society Annual Conference in the context of recent socio‐structural and intellectual transformations in counterpart sociological cultures in Anglo‐America. Drawing on three theorizations of disciplinary development by Abbott, Connell, and Burawoy, this article articulates two dimensions (socio‐structural and intellectual) with which to examine (i) what Japanese sociology can contribute to improve the internationalization decolonization, and pluralization of global sociology; and (ii) what global sociology can do to advance Japanese sociology's public contribution to improving and preserving LGBTQ minorities' societal well‐being.     

马克思理论视阈中的“现实的人”——以《德意志意识形态》为文本考察

现实的人是马克思新哲学的出发点和落脚点，同时也是马克思对整个思想史上各种“片面人”的颠覆性阐释，是唯物史观与唯心史观和经验论决裂的标识。它不同于性恶论或性善论或既无善亦无恶论，也不同于黑格尔的“绝对精神”的人，更不同于费尔巴哈的“类”。与黑格尔思想及其青年黑格尔派和费尔巴哈等人思想交锋的过程中，马克思分别通过以所有制为轴线动态考察历史发展和以分工为轴线静态考察社会的结构性存在两条线索来阐释“现实的人”的内涵，并以生产工具为红线，对资本主义社会下“现实的人”的静态结构和动态发展予以微观透视。由此，按照唯物史观的基本立场、观点和方法来说，以经济决定政治、政治决定文化的序列构成的结构性存在来解释人才是马克思所谓的“现实的人”。     

全面抗战时期大后方大学教师和学生生活水平结构研究

全面抗战时期，受战时通货膨胀影响，大后方大学教师和学生群体的生活水平迅速下降，但与真正意义上的"赤贫阶层"尚有距离，决定大学教师和学生生活水平的关键要素相比战前已发生变化。战前大学教师的生活水平结构与教师职级、教育水平紧密相关，而战时大后方大学教师的生活水平结构则受到薪金、兼职、家庭负担等多方面因素的共同制约。战前大学生的主体是社会中间阶层出身的子弟，校园内的生活水平结构呈"橄榄型"，战时大后方大学校园内的生活水平结构则截然二分为富裕和清贫学生两部分，清贫学生成为学生群体中的主体。全面抗战时期大后方大学教师和学生生活水平结构的变化，既有战时客观因素的制约，也受到国民政府相应教育政策的影响。     

试论辽代节日朝贺制度的建构

辽朝享国二百余年,《辽史·百官志》载其属国达七十八个,在如此庞大的帝国势力范围内能够稳固其统治,不仅是因为契丹拥有强悍的军事力量,更重要的是辽朝建构了有效控御四方的节日朝贺体系。辽代境内、境外、绝域之国等朝贺体系的架构,体现了辽代朝贺制度的蕃汉结合、重威辅恩、礼仪不完备等特点。为了更好地运行朝贺制度,辽代还设立了敌烈麻都司、宣徽院、驿馆、四方馆、地方府州等专门负责机构。节日朝贺制度作为朝贡制度的重要组成部分,渐趋凸显其在辽朝处理内外关系的作用,并逐渐形成了以辽为中心的东亚朝贡体系。