总体分高低成本下的复合多目标抽样方案的设计与应用

文章依据复合多目标抽样的基本原理,提出了高低成本指标广义相关下的多目标复合抽样方法的设计方案,探讨了依广义相关性进行分类的抽样方案在精度和成本方面的优良性,并进行了实际比较与应用。     

影响策略联盟累积异常报酬的回归分析

近20年来,由于全球化思潮与科技整合的快速变化,各国企业纷纷寻求各种降低风险及增加营运绩效的策略,其中的合资及策略联盟形成热门话题,而合资由于交易成本过高,使得策略联盟形成企业发展的主流。针对中国台湾地区2000—2005年宣告策略联盟的厂商进行回归实证分析,希望了解到各变数对联盟宣告的影响程度,结果发现经理人持股比率与经理人持股比率平方值产生显著现象,证明经理人持股比率多寡有助于投资人在联盟宣告后获取异常报酬。     

Socioeconomic evaluation of a correctional programme in Sweden—long-term effects Samhällsekonomisk utvärdering av ett kriminalvårdsprogram i Sverige—långsiktiga effekter

The present article focuses on the long-term socioeconomic outcome of a correctional programme in Sweden, called KrAmi (n=62), using a systematic comparison with a control group of probation clients (n=51). The evaluation, which had a quasi-experimental design, was based on actual costs for each client (n=113) for a period of five years, from 1995 to 1999. The follow-up period was two years, during which the socioeconomic costs decreased step-wise for both groups, probation groups more so than programme groups. The deteriorations were 70–80% compared to the period before treatment. Rehabilitation to labour market, measured in pension points, was more successful for programme groups than for control groups. Thanks to this, as well as lower costs during the treatment period, the programme groups’ socioeconomic profitability, measured with a 15-year cost–benefit analysis (CBA), was greater than that of the control groups. The cost–effectiveness analysis (CEA) shows that the KrAmi groups are better off in work rehabilitation, depreciation time (one year compared with two and a half years for probation groups) and repayment ratio (14 SEK compared to 6 SEK for probation groups) although cost savings are greater for probation groups.     

Discrete adaptive design in attribute life testing

Properties of a discrete adaptive design in attribute life testing situation are studied. It is shown that the design is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. Some examples are discussed to show that the design could be used in a wide range of ields, Finally, we give some simulation results to compare the discrete adaptive desigin with some continuous optimal designs.     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

On the Choice of Functional Forms: Summary of a Monte Carlo Experiment

The use of flexible functional forms is a standard practice in applied econometrics. Many flexible forms have been proposed. In this study, we investigate the behavior of three of them—the translog, the symmetric McFadden, and the symmetric generalized Barnett. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we assess the ability of these forms to test theoretical properties and to measure technological characteristics.     

经济增速放缓与经济波动对居民福利影响的阶段差异分析

 本文基于中国1952-2007年时序数据定量研究经济增速放缓的福利损失和经济波动的福利损失,并侧重考察两种福利损失的大小关系在改革开放和经济体制改革目标确立前后的阶段差异。研究发现,无论是总体而言,还是在中国经济发展的不同阶段,经济波动的福利损失并不必然远小于经济增速放缓的福利损失,在相关参数的合理取值范围内,经济波动的福利损失大于经济增速放缓的福利损失是相当普遍的情形。因此,中国政府部门在重视长期经济增长的同时,不能草率否定短期经济稳定的重要性。     

农村居民消费增长比平稳更重要

 本文将消费习惯引入Lucas (1987)模型,采用农村五等份收入户的人均消费数据进行数值模拟,结果发现: 消费增长比消费平稳更重要,且收入等级越高,这种相对重要性就越突出。相对风险规避系数一定时,两类福利成本之比随习惯强度变化的轨迹呈倒U型; 习惯强度一定时,两类福利成本之比随相对风险规避系数的增大而递减。相对于其他等级的收入户,促进消费增长的经济政策为高收入户带来相对较多的福利,而平抑消费波动的经济政策能为低收入户带来较多的福利。因此,政府在促进农村居民消费增长的同时,也应重视消费波动给低收入群体造成的福利成本。     

Optimal pricing for group buying with network effects

In this paper, we analyze online group-pricing mechanisms for sellers and compare them with the option of selling only to individuals. We formulate the demand for group buying and individual buying (GB and IB, respectively) based on the utility a consumer attains from each environment considering two specific types of externalities unique to our problem. First, we assume that consumers receive positive “network effects” from GB, i.e., they obtain utility from shopping with others because of information exchange and collective support. Second, they encounter a negative externality of group buying because of inconvenience costs and delays in receiving the products. The two types of externalities lead to distorted demand, which in turn affects prices and profits. We analyze the optimal and equilibrium strategies for a seller operating in monopoly, duopoly, and multiple-firm competition. We derive the equilibrium strategies and show the existence of a Nash Equilibrium under competition of multiple firms. In addition, we show that positive network effects from group buying often outweigh the negative externalities arising from costs.