方法运用的有效性问题

方法运用的有效性,既涉及到如何看待形而上学和当代哲学发展中的新转向,又有赖于对方法运用有效性的基本原则的贯彻。     

A Path Analytic Model of a Theory of Quality Management Underlying the Deming Management Method: Preliminary Empirical Findings*

Despite the impact that Deming and his 14 Points have had on the practice of quality management, empirical support for the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method has not advanced beyond the presentation of anecdotal, case-study evidence. In part, this is because theory to guide the conduct of empirical research has not been available. Only recently has such a theory of quality management to describe and explain the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method been articulated in the literature. This paper continues the journey of theory development; it reports the results of an exploratory empirical analysis of an articulated theory of quality management underlying the Deming Management Method. The constructs in the proposed theory are operationalized using measurement statements developed by the World-Class Manufacturing research project team at the University of Minnesota and Iowa State University. Path analysis is applied to the World-Class Manufacturing project data to explore the empirical strength of relationships advanced in the theory. The path analytic results provide support for several of the proposed relationships in the theory, and more importantly, suggest a number of new relationships which have not heretofore been proposed.     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命延长还是缩短？——基于Sullivan方法的实证研究

随着老年人口数量在总人口中不断增长,中国人口的总体健康水平。特别是老年人的健康预期寿命将会发生新的变化。中国老年人口的健康预期寿命是在增长还是在缩短？老年人口的健康预期寿命在总预期寿命中的比例是在增大还是在缩小？搞清楚这个问题对于我们合理地制定老龄政策至关重要。本文尝试应用国际上最为流行的Sullivan方法回答上述问题。     

从地理决定论到结构主义:地缘政治研究方法的变迁

地缘政治学以人与环境之间的关系为分析基础,为人类重新认识自然环境提供了崭新的视角。随着全球化的发展、科学技术的进步、全球信息社会的初步形成,结构主义取代地理决定论将成为地缘政治研究的主要方法。     

Revisiting the gap between stylized and diary estimates of market work time

Previous studies find that workers of longer work weeks report more market hours in stylized measure than in time diary, while those of shorter work weeks report fewer hours. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2003-2007, this paper attempts to explain this dilemma. I argue that market work time is composed of activity time, committed time, and constrained time. Thus, part of the difference found between the two estimates is due to the calculation of the diary estimate. I also argue that the wording of the stylized question is consequential. Some stylized questions (e.g., How many hours per week do you usually work?) might capture the mode, instead of the mean, of work time. Thus, when the distribution of work time is skewed, the mismatch between the two estimates is expected. A sequence-based identification for diary estimate and a non-parametric adjustment for stylized estimate are proposed and empirically examined. The result indicates that both methods significantly reduce the observed gap between the two estimates. I discuss the implications for future time use survey design in the concluding section.     

月度工业生产发展速度指标解读：差异比较与经验启示 ——以OECD国家为例

 正确解读统计指标是准确理解和把握统计数据意义的关键所在。本文从指标的名称、定义、计算方法、空间规定和基础指标获得方式等方面,对OECD国家的工业生产发展速度指标进行了全面解读,以期从中得出经验与启示。     

Stress,strain, coping and social support for affected family members attending the National Problem Gambling Clinic,London

Aims were: to compare burden experienced by affected family members (AFMs) attending a problem gambling treatment clinic in London, England with that of AFMs affected by substance problems; to examine socio-demographic correlates of AFM burden; to evaluate change following an intervention designed for AFMs; and to test the assumption of the stress-strain-coping-support (SSCS) model that change in AFM coping is important. AFMs (N = 215) completed a gambling version of the short questionnaire for family members affected by addiction (SQFM-AA) which assesses stressful impact, symptoms of ill health, ways of coping, social support and overall burden. All received a 5-Step Method workbook, based on the SSCS model. The SQFM-AA was repeated three to six months later (n = 96). T-test analyses showed that baseline burden and related variables were comparable to those of family members affected by substance problems, were greater for wives and those living in the same household as the gambling relative, and were significantly reduced at follow-up. Regression modelling indicated the importance, for AFMs’ health, of reduced levels of engaged-emotional coping. Family members affected by gambling, some subgroups especially, experience high levels of burden. They can benefit from a model-based intervention, and coping change may be an important process.     

关于渭河流域实施排污权交易制度的立法建议

从相关立法看,对渭河流域水污染的治理主要采取了传统的行政方式。为提高渭河水污染治理效率,促进陕西经济社会的可持续发展,有必要借鉴美国和我国上海、江苏等地比较成熟的做法,采用市场的方法即排污权交易来治理渭河流域水污染,这有利于促进企业技术革新,降低整个社会的治理成本,比单纯的行政方法更为迅速和有效。因此,应进行地方立法,规定可交易污染物的范围、排污权的初始分配方式、交易的程序等,以规范排污权交易市场;同时,确定渭河的环境容量总量以确定可供分配的指标,构建信息平台以降低交易费用及保障公民的知情权。     

环境规制强化的经济增长效应与机制研究

基于中国275个地级市2004-2018年的面板数据,以环境空气质量新标准的实施为准自然试验,采用渐进双重差分方法,实证研究环境-经济双重红利效应的理论依据及实现路径。研究发现,环境规制强化能显著促进地区经济增长,结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。并且该效应会随着地区经济水平提高而呈现边际递增的规律。机制研究发现,环境规制强化会通过增加政府公共支出、倒逼企业创新、促进公众消费及人才流入提高地区经济发展水平。     

论科学发展观与我国生态经济学的发展

在分析生态经济学理论优势的基础上,提出一个人口、生产和消费与生态环境关系的研究框架。研究重点主要是在短期内从生产的角度进行生态补偿研究,而长期必须从消费偏好的角度进行研究。在研究方法上,应该借鉴条件价值法、生态足迹和物质流会计、新制度经济学等方法。这样才能使生态经济学走出乌托邦式的哲学范式,接近公众从而找到其动力源泉。