The social “R & D” paradigm in child and youth services: Building knowledge convivially

Adaptation of agricultural and industrial research and development models offers new methods for bridging the worlds of research and practice in child and youth services. Social R & D methodologies provide effective means for generating new social technologies because they are product oriented and use a wide array of traditional and nontraditional data sources. This article discusses one social R & D paradigm—Developmental Research and Utilization. Permanency planning and community support systems research are used to illustrate the past and potential application of this methodology to the field of child and youth services.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

《慕莱堂诗文征存》和秋寿南、秋瑾的诗词

根据秋寿南在《乡试录》中的记载,他的曾祖秋学礼曾著《补斋文集》《仅礼节读》两种,另有《补斋图册》一种;他的祖父秋家丞著有《八一编》行世;他的父亲秋嘉禾没有著作。这些著作中,只有秋学礼的《补斋文集》流传下来,其它都已流失。最近,又从《晚晴簃诗汇》中发现了一首秋学礼的诗,从《慕莱堂诗文征存》中发现了一首秋寿南的诗,这为研究秋家的家史和秋家的文风提供了新的资料。     

《一间自己的房间》中的声音

该文选取了英国女作家弗吉尼亚•伍尔夫的长篇论文《一间自己的房间》,试图借美国马里兰州大学比较文学和女性研究中心教授苏珊•S•兰瑟的思路,将社会身份的声音和叙述形式的声音联系并结合起来,从叙事声音的角度切入,分析其背后所反映的现实中女性主义的声音,并借此梳理伍尔夫的女性主义思想。     

Inferences concerning interpersonal choices given anonymously

It may be difficult or impossible to make a reliable empirical investigation of an unknown network of interpersonal choices or contacts if these are in some respect sensitive for the individuals involved. We consider how choice data given anonymously can be used to reveal various features of the network. Using tools from statistical decision theory and information theory we can determine risks and capacities of disclosing choice data, the graph structure of choice data and its numbers of loops and mutuals. We give some general results, illustrate the combinatorial complexity of the problem and comment upon the computational difficulties.     

Optimal estimation of a finite population mean under generalized random permutation models

Employing certain generalized random permutation models and a general class of linear estimators of a finite population mean, it is shown that many of the conventional estimators are “optimal” in the sense of minimum average mean square error. Simple proofs are provided by using a well-known theorem on UMV estimation. The results also cover certain simple response error situations.     

Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

Evaluating the impact of utility company billing plans on residential energy consumption

Many utility companies offer their customers the choice of participation in an average payment plan, which enables them to pay a fixed sum for their utility bill each month (with final settlement at the end of the billing year), instead of the conventional “pay as you go” billing procedure. Because customers on average payment plans are protected from paying large bills during peak energy-use seasons and because the information about monthly energy use and its cost is perhaps less salient to them, it was hypothesized that customers on the average payment plan would use more electricity than customers not on the plan. Using a nonequivalent control group design, the electricity consumption of a selection of customers of two utility companies (Ns = 475 and 74) was examined. The results showed that there was no evidence to support the hypothesis. Since the logic of hypothesis testing does not permit the ready acceptance of the null hypothesis, several procedural, methodological, and statistical points were made to buttress the conclusion that the average payment plans had no effect on electricity consumption.     

《红楼梦》“大荒山”并非长白山——与陈景河先生商榷

《红楼梦》中的“大荒山”并非陈景河先生所误引的《山海经·大荒西经》中“大荒山”,也与长白山无关,乃“荒唐言”耳。不能认为《红楼梦》主旨是写满族的兴衰史,表现的是中原腐朽文化和关外满族原始素朴文化的冲突等等。红学研究必须讲究科学的“方法论”。     

“A是A，B是B”句联的内部构造和外部构成

"A是A,B是B"句联内部各小句一般都是有序排列且有较高的一致性.各小句的前段可以是名词性的,也可以是谓词性的;后段大都重复前段,极少的时候略有变化;中段有条件地容纳状语.各小句的重音分布是"中-轻-重",这与单用的"A是A"小句明显不同."A是A,B是B"句联在结构上是弱自由句联,在表意上不自足.常在小句中作成分,或在复句中与紧邻的其他小句或句联形成各种关系,少数时候也可以单独构成复句.